raversofbrc - [everyone] Second Night

Link:7437 Sat Jan 23 00:21:53 2010

You sleep soundly in your tents and RVs through most of the day. You awake to the rantings of Danger Ranger, on his hands and knees in front of [info]the1mouse's tent, picking up bits and pieces of dog biscuits, muttering something about MOOP and crazy raver kids.

"Look", he says as he stands up again, "That [info]duck is a loose cannon. You keep a close eye on him. I've already had to haul a dog out of here today, don't make me have your [info]duck hauled off too! We've still got NARCs here, you gotta help me find 'em!"

SUMMARY: [info]the1mouse the K9 UNIT has been arrested. Sure she'll get out quickly, but her cover is blown. Lynching discussion begins here.
Time:2005-09-20 21:56:34 GMT
Author:[info]kraydon
Subject:(none)
Link:7437#74765

Parent:(none)
Siblings:#3 #5 #14 #21 #46 #56 #68 #72 #73 #80 #84 #93 #103 #104 #105
Children:#2
#1
Interesting, very Interesting. Who had it out for [info]the1mouse...


Time:2005-09-20 22:08:47 GMT
Author:[info]parzanese
Subject:(none)
Link:7437#75789

Parent:#1
Siblings:(none)
Children:(none)
 #2
well obviously I did, but how's that different from the last game . . .

*[info]Jeeves secures a new fence around the wading pool, and places a sign on the gate that states "Keep Away Flammable Objects"*


Time:2005-09-20 22:35:29 GMT
Author:[info]hungryandhollow
Subject:(none)
Link:7437#77069

Parent:(none)
Siblings:#1 #5 #14 #21 #46 #56 #68 #72 #73 #80 #84 #93 #103 #104 #105
Children:#4
#3
I feel so bad for [info]evilben. His first game as a special, and he gets lynched immediatly.
[info]princeofwands better come through for us :P


Time:2005-09-20 22:45:39 GMT
Author:[info]parzanese
Subject:(none)
Link:7437#77581

Parent:#3
Siblings:(none)
Children:(none)
 #4
[info]Jeeves just made a new batch of Evil Ben Snacks . . . now in new Extra Crispy flavor . . . wanna try?


Time:2005-09-20 22:47:51 GMT
Author:[info]girlpurple
Subject:EvilBen's Legacy....
Link:7437#77837

Parent:(none)
Siblings:#1 #3 #14 #21 #46 #56 #68 #72 #73 #80 #84 #93 #103 #104 #105
Children:#6 #7
#5
So, here's the one claim game we get from the Glowstick Ninja...

Do the Claim Game, don't be Lame!

A) [info]parzanese is uncool
B) [info]ilovetequila is cool
C) [info]joelzero is cool


Of these, any guesses as to whom the Dear Departed would have looked at first?


Time:2005-09-20 22:52:05 GMT
Author:[info]kraydon
Subject:Re: EvilBen's Legacy....
Link:7437#78093

Parent:#5
Siblings:#7
Children:#8 #11
#6
It's a little obvious for him, but I'm going to Vote [info]parzanese

Down with the mayor!!!


Time:2005-09-20 22:53:32 GMT
Author:[info]airor
Subject:Re: EvilBen's Legacy....
Link:7437#78349

Parent:#5
Siblings:#6
Children:#9 #13
#7
I suspect all three of them. Given that he actually fingers [info]Parzanese, and there was a 1/3 chance of him actually checking him, I'll vote [info]Parzanese.


Time:2005-09-20 22:55:14 GMT
Author:[info]parzanese
Subject:Re: EvilBen's Legacy....
Link:7437#78605

Parent:#6
Siblings:#11
Children:#22
#8
oh please give me a break . . .
1- any one of those claims could be false
2- the chances of [info]evilben picking a narc on the first turn are lower than him picking a non narc
3- I didn't want to vote for evil ben and only did to save our "known" villager [info]princeofwands
4- and yes it is way too obvious for me, give me some damn credit . . . I'm being set up
5- the narcs obviously saw that [info]evilben had picked me to be uncool and that I and [info]the1mouse had at it all night yesterday
6- thus they arrested [info]the1mouse to set me up


Time:2005-09-20 22:56:35 GMT
Author:[info]parzanese
Subject:Re: EvilBen's Legacy....
Link:7437#78861

Parent:#7
Siblings:#13
Children:#10
#9
yea well who was it that started the [info]evilben bandwagon, who prodded me into voting for [info]evilben . . . my vote was on [info]the1mouse (which looks like I was correct) before you prodded me to change my vote to [info]evilben . . .

vote [info]airor


Time:2005-09-20 23:06:50 GMT
Author:[info]airor
Subject:Re: EvilBen's Legacy....
Link:7437#79117

Parent:#9
Siblings:(none)
Children:#12
#10
How did I start the [info]evilben bandwagon? I voted for him first off, right at the beginning of the day. Nobody knew who he really was.

Your vote was on [info]the1mouse, true, but the voting was between [info]princeofwands and [info]evilben, both you and [info]the1mouse changed at the last second to save [info]princeofwands. [info]Princeofwands was our only 'known' raver by the way. I'm sorry if you feel I 'tricked' you into voting for someone you didn't want to, but I still see it as the right action given our knowledge at the time.


Time:2005-09-20 23:06:56 GMT
Author:[info]parzanese
Subject:Re: EvilBen's Legacy....
Link:7437#79373

Parent:#6
Siblings:#8
Children:#24
#11
I would also like to point out:

1- that a Glowstick Ninja playing the claim game has to pick someone to list as uncool even if they didn't spy any uncool people the night before because otherwise we'd always lose the person on day 1 as they'd have all cool claims and would be obviously the ninja . . .

2- [info]joelzero and [info]ilovetequila have also been ninja'd on the first day as well and are just as likely targets for the first day as I am

3- [info]evilben probably got tired of me eating "Evil Ben Snacks"


Time:2005-09-20 23:14:22 GMT
Author:[info]parzanese
Subject:Re: EvilBen's Legacy....
Link:7437#79629

Parent:#10
Siblings:(none)
Children:#25
#12
I didn't change at the last second like [info]the1mouse, I changed a full 15 minutes at least before the end . . . [info]ilovetequila and [info]princeofwands were two others within the last half hour as well . . . [info]the1mouse obviously knew something since without her vote there was no way [info]evilben ever would have gotten lynched (as I figured evil ben would have at least cast a tie breaker) . . .

yea and how is voting for me the right action? given our sketchy knowledge, little chance of [info]evilben having looked at me, and massive doubt?

give me some credit, if I were a narc, I never would have arrested [info]the1mouse . . . it's obvious that after I very successfully found several wolves last game, that the narcs are taking the opportunity to frame me . . .


Time:2005-09-20 23:16:00 GMT
Author:[info]joelzero
Subject:Re: EvilBen's Legacy....
Link:7437#79885

Parent:#7
Siblings:#9
Children:#15
#13
vote [info]parzanese. Wump-wump-wump-wump-tikatikatikatika-ti-ti-tttttttttttt-wump-wump-wump-wump...
(skip off to go dance)


Time:2005-09-20 23:23:19 GMT
Author:[info]girlpurple
Subject:(none)
Link:7437#80397

Parent:(none)
Siblings:#1 #3 #5 #21 #46 #56 #68 #72 #73 #80 #84 #93 #103 #104 #105
Children:#16 #18 #50
#14
Ya know, if I were the Glowstick Ninja, the first two players I would have looked at this game would have been [info]parzanese and [info]princeofwands.

It's not about hunting for NARCs, it's about knowing what roles two really strong/key players from the Lupus game were assigned.

[info]princeofwands has already been outed as the Dose Fairy, or is at least uncontested in that role

The Mayor (who brought along the pyro [info]duck that ruined the blinky light forest - wah!)has yet to claim a role or even "plain ol' Raver" status.

vote [info]parzanese


Time:2005-09-20 23:24:17 GMT
Author:[info]parzanese
Subject:Re: EvilBen's Legacy....
Link:7437#80653

Parent:#13
Siblings:(none)
Children:#17
#15
in the modified words of [info]stride (only true this time) "Not a Narc"


Time:2005-09-20 23:24:49 GMT
Author:[info]joelzero
Subject:(none)
Link:7437#80909

Parent:#14
Siblings:#18 #50
Children:#19
#16
Ruined it?! That was awesome!


Time:2005-09-20 23:25:55 GMT
Author:[info]joelzero
Subject:Re: EvilBen's Legacy....
Link:7437#81165

Parent:#15
Siblings:(none)
Children:#20
#17
Cough up your identity then, before it's too late, Mayor McCheese!


Time:2005-09-20 23:26:31 GMT
Author:[info]parzanese
Subject:(none)
Link:7437#81421

Parent:#14
Siblings:#16 #50
Children:(none)
 #18
I'm a plain old raver . . . just a plain old raver . . . well at least too my knowledge . . . which leads me to believe that I might possibly be a frat boy if [info]evilben did in fact check on me . . .

and [info]evilben also knows that [info]ilovetequila and [info]joelzero are two really strong players as well . . . there's just as much chance of him looking at the two of them . . . for past millers hollow players don't forget how often they screwed over [info]evilben when they were wolves . . .


Time:2005-09-20 23:27:18 GMT
Author:[info]parzanese
Subject:(none)
Link:7437#81677

Parent:#16
Siblings:(none)
Children:#27
#19
if you don't change your vote I'm going to give the [info]duck a flame thrower and sick him on your ass . . .


Time:2005-09-20 23:29:07 GMT
Author:[info]parzanese
Subject:Re: EvilBen's Legacy....
Link:7437#81933

Parent:#17
Siblings:(none)
Children:(none)
 #20
well sadly I'm just a Raver . . . which is why I know none of you will believe me . . . but recall that there are 5 Ravers in the game and two others who believe they are simply ravers for a total of 7 out of 17 (now 15) so almost half of us here believe we are just ravers . . .

Raver . . . only a Raver . . . although if I were a drama queen I'd take [info]airor down with me . . .


Time:2005-09-20 23:34:44 GMT
Author:[info]joelzero
Subject:Dilemma
Link:7437#82445

Parent:(none)
Siblings:#1 #3 #5 #14 #46 #56 #68 #72 #73 #80 #84 #93 #103 #104 #105
Children:#23 #26 #29 #34
#21
Is the Mayor actually a Frat Boy?
Is the Mayor a Narc claiming to be the Frat Boy?
Did [info]evilben check me or ilovetequilla?

It's very possible he did check me, because I (to the best of my knowledge) am a basic RAVER. What about you, ilovetequilla?


Time:2005-09-20 23:45:09 GMT
Author:[info]ilovetequila
Subject:Re: EvilBen's Legacy....
Link:7437#82701

Parent:#8
Siblings:(none)
Children:#28
#22
the chances of [info]evilben picking a narc on the first turn are lower than him picking a non narc
Totally false reasoning (and let's not forget how many games we've had where the seer *did* choose a wolf on night 0). The seer chose someone and there were 4/17 odds that person would appear to be a wolf. That does not affect the odds of any of the three statements being what he saw.

The only thing we really know to determine which it is is which of the three of us [info]evilben was most likely to spy on.


Time:2005-09-20 23:45:18 GMT
Author:[info]joelzero
Subject:Re: Dilemma
Link:7437#82957

Parent:#21
Siblings:#26 #29 #34
Children:#36
#23
Plus, on multiple choice stuff, people choose "b".


Time:2005-09-20 23:47:52 GMT
Author:[info]ilovetequila
Subject:Re: EvilBen's Legacy....
Link:7437#83213

Parent:#11
Siblings:(none)
Children:#31
#24
#1: How do you figure that?? The claim game doesn't require everyone to claim one narc each day, that doesn't make any sense. I did not claim any narcs on day 1 and yet I am not the ninja.


Time:2005-09-20 23:48:23 GMT
Author:[info]airor
Subject:Re: EvilBen's Legacy....
Link:7437#83469

Parent:#12
Siblings:(none)
Children:#38
#25
You ask: yea and how is voting for me the right action?

I don't have any other info to go on? Your claim as a raver does make it possible that you're the frat boy, but I can only go by confidence levels and probability here.

Option A - you're a narc: you voted for [info]the1mouse and failed, then arrested her. Though I don't see what was so special about her.
Option B - you're a raver: you were not targeted by [info]evilben, or you are the fratboy.

Ostracizing you gets us:
Option A: a narc
Option B: the slightly increased confidence level in ilovetequilla and [info]joelzero, but one night closer to doom.

Ostracizing someone else:
Um, I don't see anyone else being more likely than you right now. One night closer to doom...



Time:2005-09-20 23:51:54 GMT
Author:[info]airor
Subject:Re: Dilemma
Link:7437#83725

Parent:#21
Siblings:#23 #29 #34
Children:#30
#26
The Glowstick Ninja can't tell if you're some special other than narc. Why would you imply that he could?


Time:2005-09-20 23:54:24 GMT
Author:[info]kraydon
Subject:(none)
Link:7437#83981

Parent:#19
Siblings:(none)
Children:#32
#27
And now threats?! Where's the love baby, where's the love?! Here, have a "candy."


Time:2005-09-20 23:55:40 GMT
Author:[info]parzanese
Subject:Re: EvilBen's Legacy....
Link:7437#84237

Parent:#22
Siblings:(none)
Children:#37
#28
let's face it with all three of our pasts he could have looked at any one of the three of us . . .


Time:2005-09-20 23:55:50 GMT
Author:[info]ilovetequila
Subject:Re: Dilemma
Link:7437#84493

Parent:#21
Siblings:#23 #26 #34
Children:(none)
 #29
Yep, I am a raver.


Time:2005-09-20 23:57:35 GMT
Author:[info]joelzero
Subject:Re: Dilemma
Link:7437#84749

Parent:#26
Siblings:(none)
Children:(none)
 #30
If the Glowstick Ninja looks at you, and you're a Frat Boy, you look like a Narc even though you're a Raver. The Mayor is claiming that he may (unwittingly) be the Frat Boy and that the Glowstick Ninja checked [info]parzanese's chonies earlier today and named him a Narc in his Claim Game claim.


Time:2005-09-20 23:57:41 GMT
Author:[info]parzanese
Subject:Re: EvilBen's Legacy....
Link:7437#85005

Parent:#24
Siblings:(none)
Children:#39
#31
nope, but the rules do state that you should pick in percentages of narcs left over . . . if the glowstick ninja never gets a narc, what's he suppose to do, pick all cool claims . . . I'd bet the ninja wouldn't last long . . . he's suppose to keep one set of claims true which means he could have false claims of narcs in his other claims . . .


Time:2005-09-20 23:58:47 GMT
Author:[info]parzanese
Subject:(none)
Link:7437#85261

Parent:#27
Siblings:(none)
Children:#33
#32
oh sure drink my wine, eat my candy, and then vote for me . . . thanks . . . I might ask you where's the love?


Time:2005-09-20 23:59:28 GMT
Author:[info]kraydon
Subject:(none)
Link:7437#85517

Parent:#32
Siblings:(none)
Children:#35
#33
Obviously the love was with someone else...


Time:2005-09-21 00:01:29 GMT
Author:[info]parzanese
Subject:Re: Dilemma
Link:7437#85773

Parent:#21
Siblings:#23 #26 #29
Children:#40 #51
#34
how about this:

1- we don't lynch me tonight (and if the drama queen bites it, I'll understand if they drama me out of existence)
2- I pick someone (since it's now impossible to pick the glowstick ninja you don't have to worry there)
3- if I'm completely off base, which I wasn't last turn on [info]the1mouse, you lynch me tomorrow night


Time:2005-09-21 00:02:06 GMT
Author:[info]parzanese
Subject:(none)
Link:7437#86029

Parent:#33
Siblings:(none)
Children:(none)
 #35
no more wine for you . . . [info]Jeeves, [info]kraydon is no longer allowed in the bar . . . Very good sir.


Time:2005-09-21 00:02:32 GMT
Author:[info]parzanese
Subject:Re: Dilemma
Link:7437#86285

Parent:#23
Siblings:(none)
Children:(none)
 #36
actually I usually go c, but that's just me :)


Time:2005-09-21 00:03:01 GMT
Author:[info]ilovetequila
Subject:Re: EvilBen's Legacy....
Link:7437#86541

Parent:#28
Siblings:(none)
Children:#41
#37
Yep, I think that's true. Which basically means that at this point we don't know anything about his claims. But I guess we know now that there is a 1/3 chance that you are either a narc or a frat boy.


Time:2005-09-21 00:03:58 GMT
Author:[info]parzanese
Subject:Re: EvilBen's Legacy....
Link:7437#86797

Parent:#25
Siblings:(none)
Children:(none)
 #38
ostracizing me gets you exactly what the narcs want: one of the people who was highly responsible for all the wolves bitin' it last game off the playa . . .


Time:2005-09-21 00:04:33 GMT
Author:[info]ilovetequila
Subject:Re: EvilBen's Legacy....
Link:7437#87053

Parent:#31
Siblings:(none)
Children:#43
#39
When the percentage is less than 1/3, then some of the claim sets should not contain a narc. Picking one narc every time makes everyone more likely to be outed to the narcs as either the ninja or not.


Time:2005-09-21 00:04:35 GMT
Author:[info]joelzero
Subject:Re: Dilemma
Link:7437#87309

Parent:#34
Siblings:#51
Children:#42 #44
#40
I'm down. We'll likely lynch you tomorrow anyway.


Time:2005-09-21 00:04:54 GMT
Author:[info]parzanese
Subject:Re: EvilBen's Legacy....
Link:7437#87565

Parent:#37
Siblings:(none)
Children:#45
#41
yep basically . . . which considering how many people are left in the game is probably about what I already had :)


Time:2005-09-21 00:05:29 GMT
Author:[info]parzanese
Subject:Re: Dilemma
Link:7437#87821

Parent:#40
Siblings:#44
Children:(none)
 #42
ok thanks . . . [info]Jeeves pour this man a beer . . . Very good sir


Time:2005-09-21 00:08:32 GMT
Author:[info]parzanese
Subject:Re: EvilBen's Legacy....
Link:7437#88077

Parent:#39
Siblings:(none)
Children:(none)
 #43
personally i'm not so sure the claim game is a good thing . . . as last game a wolf tried to use it to find the seer and almost succeeded . . . also last game I almost thought a wolf was a seer because of the number of correct claims they had . . . it's broken, but so far I haven't been able to think of a better way for the seer, ninja, etc to get their point across . . .


Time:2005-09-21 00:11:46 GMT
Author:[info]parzanese
Subject:Re: Dilemma
Link:7437#88333

Parent:#40
Siblings:#42
Children:(none)
 #44
so you going to unvote me now?


Time:2005-09-21 00:12:40 GMT
Author:[info]ilovetequila
Subject:Re: EvilBen's Legacy....
Link:7437#88589

Parent:#41
Siblings:(none)
Children:#47 #64
#45
Yeah, without the claims, it's 4/15, which is a tiny bit lower, but really this isn't much higher! :)

I guess we could say that now there is a
1/3 * 3/4 = 3/12 = 1/4 chance that you are a narc.

Only slightly worse than the 3/15 = 1/5 that everyone else has! :)


Time:2005-09-21 00:15:56 GMT
Author:[info]princeofwands
Subject:(none)
Link:7437#88845

Parent:(none)
Siblings:#1 #3 #5 #14 #21 #56 #68 #72 #73 #80 #84 #93 #103 #104 #105
Children:#48
#46
Wow man! This is all too hairy. If only there were enough e for us all... then life could be cuddly lovely all the time. (Well, except the cracked out days afterwards and the anxious waiting for the next time around.) If only there were something with a little less edge and a little more love...

I wanna new [love potion]... we'll see how #9 does. Though so far, I'm a little disappointed.

I'm afraid that at this point I can't bring myself to vote for My Mayor himself. No other obvious candidates so far. And I left the top off of the Barbie Dream Jeep during today's surprise cloudburst! Now I've got wet and playa to deal with during our eventual departure.

I VOTE [info]ABSTAIN for now.


Time:2005-09-21 00:17:55 GMT
Author:[info]parzanese
Subject:Re: EvilBen's Legacy....
Link:7437#89101

Parent:#45
Siblings:#64
Children:(none)
 #47
it's been so long since I had any probability or statistics classes, I'll take your word :)


Time:2005-09-21 00:19:58 GMT
Author:[info]parzanese
Subject:(none)
Link:7437#89357

Parent:#46
Siblings:(none)
Children:#49
#48
I got a guest room in the RV, it's dry and occasionally air conditioned . . .


Time:2005-09-21 00:37:25 GMT
Author:[info]princeofwands
Subject:(none)
Link:7437#89869

Parent:#48
Siblings:(none)
Children:(none)
 #49
I'll ride that wagon! I gotta go slack in a chill room for a couple of hours and think about all of this without the blaring beat bruising my brain. Can't think, the beat will eat me!


Time:2005-09-21 00:40:02 GMT
Author:[info]parzanese
Subject:(none)
Link:7437#90125

Parent:#14
Siblings:#16 #18
Children:#67
#50
you know the first day you claimed to be a simple villager last game, i believed you and moved onto [info]stride


Time:2005-09-21 01:40:32 GMT
Author:[info]flipperchaz
Subject:Re: Dilemma
Link:7437#90381

Parent:#34
Siblings:#40
Children:#52 #53
#51
Are you going to pick someone? For now I'm going to have to vote [info]parzanese. Just no better options at the moment.


Time:2005-09-21 01:42:18 GMT
Author:[info]parzanese
Subject:Re: Dilemma
Link:7437#90637

Parent:#51
Siblings:#53
Children:#58
#52
shit, thanks, keep the bandwagon rolling . . . big help you are . . . if I had to pick anyone with the info I have right now, I'd go with [info]airor


Time:2005-09-21 01:45:47 GMT
Author:[info]parzanese
Subject:Re: Dilemma
Link:7437#90893

Parent:#51
Siblings:#52
Children:#54
#53
sure, after we're already down the ninja, lynch the guy who found the wolves last game especially when he has really no better chance of being a narc than anyone else . . . I hope all your asses get arrested after you lynch me . . .


Time:2005-09-21 01:56:48 GMT
Author:[info]flipperchaz
Subject:Re: Dilemma
Link:7437#91149

Parent:#53
Siblings:(none)
Children:#55
#54
Alright, I'll give you a chance.

Unvote [info]parzanese
Vote [info]airor


Time:2005-09-21 02:00:41 GMT
Author:[info]parzanese
Subject:Re: Dilemma
Link:7437#91405

Parent:#54
Siblings:(none)
Children:(none)
 #55
Thanks, here have a beer :) . . . or would you rather have vodka . . . [info]Jeeves, give the man a drink . . . Very Good Sir

All I'm asking is one day (not that my chances are the best, but I did vote for a wolf on day 2, 3 and 4 last game) so who knows maybe I'll get lucky again and we can have a narc free playa at the end like last game . . .


Time:2005-09-21 02:22:36 GMT
Author:[info]hungryandhollow
Subject:(none)
Link:7437#91661

Parent:(none)
Siblings:#1 #3 #5 #14 #21 #46 #68 #72 #73 #80 #84 #93 #103 #104 #105
Children:#57 #60 #71
#56
right now it looks like a battle between the [info]Airor and Paraneze camps. But frankly, in the 1 game I've played with each of them, they were extremely strong villagers (sorry, "ravers") and I'm not voting for either of them without some damn good evidence.
so i've picked someone at random. vote [info]perkyevil.


Time:2005-09-21 02:35:42 GMT
Author:[info]parzanese
Subject:(none)
Link:7437#91917

Parent:#56
Siblings:#60 #71
Children:(none)
 #57
well hey, at least it's not a vote for me like everyone else . . . so thanks :)


Time:2005-09-21 02:44:39 GMT
Author:[info]ilovetequila
Subject:Re: Dilemma
Link:7437#92173

Parent:#52
Siblings:(none)
Children:#59 #62
#58
Care to share your reasons? I for one am not going to simply blindly vote for whomever you say. I had a vague gut suspicion of you at one point yesterday, though I really just can't see you arresting [info]the1mouse if you were a narc. Actually, she seems an odd choice for any narcs to arrest, since she made the deciding vote switch 2 minutes before the polls closed and would have been a likely lynch target today.


Time:2005-09-21 02:56:39 GMT
Author:[info]parzanese
Subject:Re: Dilemma
Link:7437#92429

Parent:#58
Siblings:#62
Children:#81
#59
I really think the narcs saw [info]evilben's claims and saw [info]the1mouse and I bickering back and forth yesterday . . . which is ironically a shame for them since she was the K9 unit . . .

sadly I don't have many reasons to lynch [info]airor more than a gut feeling . . . but here's my trail: last time he played, he was more active, this game he urged me on to cast a vote against [info]evilben late in the day (he'll state it was only to defend [info]princeofwands of course), he has come out today gunning for me as well and is pretty much the one hardest gunning for me, and finally maybe in order to put the cherry on top to explain why [info]the1mouse got arrested, she did claim he was a narc (not that that means much, but who knows, maybe it played a bit into her getting arrested, doubtful though, as the ego-ist in me thinks it's all about me :) . . .

now I'd gauge my gut feelings last game to be about 50% right . . . so flip a coin I guess :) . . . care for a beer, glass of wine, Evil Ben Snack? no, don't put your hand too close to the [info]duck's cage . . .


Time:2005-09-21 02:59:12 GMT
Author:[info]perkyevil
Subject:(none)
Link:7437#92685

Parent:#56
Siblings:#57 #71
Children:#61 #65
#60
Hey, I can understand the whole voting at random thing. I, however, know something that you don't know. I am not left handed (nor am I a Narc).

I wish I had someone better to point you to. I think that I'm going to vote vrelis based on what paraneze said yesterday.


Time:2005-09-21 02:59:51 GMT
Author:[info]parzanese
Subject:(none)
Link:7437#92941

Parent:#60
Siblings:#65
Children:#70
#61
what did I say yesterday about vrelis?


Time:2005-09-21 03:09:25 GMT
Author:[info]parzanese
Subject:Re: Dilemma
Link:7437#93197

Parent:#58
Siblings:#59
Children:#63
#62
oh you want to test my theory . . . the only way to really test it is have a whole bunch of votes rack up for him and see if he claims special or raver (and even then it doesn't prove anything) . . . however, I bet he won't claim special (at least undisputed) . . .


Time:2005-09-21 03:30:22 GMT
Author:[info]princeofwands
Subject:Re: Dilemma
Link:7437#93453

Parent:#62
Siblings:(none)
Children:#66
#63
what the hell... I can always change my vote before dawn.

vote vrelis


Time:2005-09-21 03:34:09 GMT
Author:[info]princeofwands
Subject:Re: EvilBen's Legacy....
Link:7437#93709

Parent:#45
Siblings:#47
Children:(none)
 #64
You've missed a step. In any arguement about ferreting out the RAVERS from the NARCS, each RAVER knows that they are a RAVER, and really for purposes of our swaying arguments, the voting decisions of the NARCS don't affect that statistic. Everybody gets to decrement by one.


Time:2005-09-21 03:34:48 GMT
Author:[info]hungryandhollow
Subject:(none)
Link:7437#93965

Parent:#60
Siblings:#61
Children:(none)
 #65
if we get some evidece i'll be happy to vote for someone else. However, rather than [info]abstain and decide last-minute, i figuered i'd do my random selection now so they had time to defend themselves.


Time:2005-09-21 03:35:16 GMT
Author:[info]princeofwands
Subject:Re: Dilemma
Link:7437#94221

Parent:#63
Siblings:(none)
Children:#69
#66
And assuming anybody presents some actual claims this round that might be used as evidence I fully expect I'll change my vote.


Time:2005-09-21 03:39:27 GMT
Author:[info]hungryandhollow
Subject:(none)
Link:7437#94477

Parent:#50
Siblings:(none)
Children:#76
#67
BTW, next time we go back to Miller's Hollow - especially considering the conclusion of the last game with the werebaby - we should play [info]evilben's Hunters game instead of the standard one, just for fun.


Time:2005-09-21 05:17:03 GMT
Author:[info]gpeefalt
Subject:(none)
Link:7437#94733

Parent:(none)
Siblings:#1 #3 #5 #14 #21 #46 #56 #72 #73 #80 #84 #93 #103 #104 #105
Children:(none)
 #68
*sniff* *sniff* I smell barbecue.


Time:2005-09-21 05:27:46 GMT
Author:[info]airor
Subject:Re: Dilemma
Link:7437#94989

Parent:#66
Siblings:(none)
Children:#74
#69
Actually [info]PrinceOfWands, I would like to hear more about your reasoning about everyone. Having what you think out there will help all of us since you're uncontested about being a special.


Time:2005-09-21 06:18:41 GMT
Author:[info]perkyevil
Subject:Opps...
Link:7437#95245

Parent:#61
Siblings:(none)
Children:(none)
 #70
My bad. It was [info]princeofwands who said: I would propose that based on previous games, individuals (not the one that ended up getting lynched) that are a second (of only two) voter for a candidate tend to be the bad guys. There has only been one such player this round.

And then he voted for vrelis. (edited to try and fool the counter)


Time:2005-09-21 06:19:47 GMT
Author:[info]ilovetequila
Subject:(none)
Link:7437#95501

Parent:#56
Siblings:#57 #60
Children:(none)
 #71
Yeah, both have shown themselves in the pas t to be rather valuable ravers. They've also both shown themselves to be very good at getting people to follow them, which will be very bad if one of them is a narc and we don't get rid of him. I'd prefer to not lynch either of them without better evidence, but also need to make sure no one is blindly following either of them.


Time:2005-09-21 07:21:35 GMT
Author:[info]ilovetequila
Subject:(none)
Link:7437#95757

Parent:(none)
Siblings:#1 #3 #5 #14 #21 #46 #56 #68 #73 #80 #84 #93 #103 #104 #105
Children:#95 #102
#72
Hmmm, a lot of people haven't been back to camp yet tonight.

[info]amphitrite27
[info]fu_urns
[info]pergatorigirl
lj user="vrelis"/>

Where are you guys? Did you get lost after that cool explosion in the blinky light forest?


Time:2005-09-21 07:54:37 GMT
Author:[info]ilovetequila
Subject:(none)
Link:7437#96013

Parent:(none)
Siblings:#1 #3 #5 #14 #21 #46 #56 #68 #72 #80 #84 #93 #103 #104 #105
Children:#75 #86
#73
Barring any better targets, I'm going to

Vote [info]hungryandhollow

I don't really have much of a reason, just feels like he's hiding something, trying to blend.


Time:2005-09-21 10:33:17 GMT
Author:[info]princeofwands
Subject:Re: Dilemma
Link:7437#96269

Parent:#69
Siblings:(none)
Children:#77
#74
Ok. I'll say it. [info]parzanese is top of my list for suspicious threats. He could be a NARC. There is one piece of actual evidence that might point to him. Maybe. And if he is, the longer he's alive the further down the dark path he's sellin' us all.

That said, I don't wanna lynch him yet. It's early in the game. We still have very little useful evidence about any of the players. Same for the NARCS. And it'll cost us a lot more to mistakenly kill off our ally here than to let our enemy live.

But there is something floating out there that hasn't gotten talked about - our K9UNIT and her comments from last night. Huh. Look at that. I wonder if she was trying to tell the NARCS something. Could all just be noise. She was on the side of the NARCS, had to find a way to communicate that to them (she didn't know them, they didn't know her, but she knew that they knew who each other were and by extension who the RAVERS are), and took an immediately hostile position toward [info]parzanese. Makes him nominally safer than other random players.

[Imagine for a moment though the dangerous position we might be in if the three NARCS are he, [info]joelzero, and [info]ilovetequila?! ]

We've managed right off the bat to take down the most expensive player to lose this early. Playing without a seer this early is going to hurt us later on as we all know. And even now - racing to the end point is going to be a costly run. Bear with me as I think out loud a little bit...

Self-outing claims can't reliably be made this early. Two NARCS can support each other as HIGH SCHOOL CHUMS for example. But being one of multiple parties in a contested claim buys you even odds of getting nailed as a NARC fast. If we make the SPECIALS obvious to them, then they get to zero in on our CHEMIST or try and find the SNITCH both of which they get to do slightly faster than we do (since they already know who all three of them ARE and we don't). At least there's no reason to question any RAVER claims as a turned SNITCH yet.

Assuming that everyone did out themselves and it went uncontested, we'd be down to 10 players three of whom are NARCS. And they'd be down to seven unknowns, one of whom is their SNITCH. Do they hunt for the SNITCH or try and maneuver the DRAMA QUEEN into taking another RAVER down with her? The CHEMIST gets a free save, outed or not so that wouldn't especially hurt us. But overall I still think it's giving too much information to the NARCS for too little payback this round.

They have 10 unidentified villagers, and are trying to find out the SNITCH while not getting blowed up by bad timing with the DRAMA QUEEN or the CHEMIST (both of whom get more dangerous to the NARCS the longer they live). We RAVERS have got 3 NARCS among the 14 of us.

--

You're pretty high up on my list right now too though. And entirely undefended. But if I change my vote to you this late in the evening, I'll lose any dogpiling on vrelis my last (but previous) vote might churn up. OTOH, it might get us some dogpiling on you that'd be good to see how everybody reacts to.

And as much as I'm loathe to admit, again - I'm just a fanboy for Mr. Mayor. He's totally got the game mechanics down and is playing a winning strategy (both last game and so far for either side this game). And he still sees things in the board that I'm not putting together as quickly.

I'll post again in the morning a couple of hours before the lynching.


Time:2005-09-21 15:35:53 GMT
Author:[info]parzanese
Subject:(none)
Link:7437#96525

Parent:#73
Siblings:#86
Children:#94
#75
I really have nothing to go on in regards to h & h. So far (and even with his refusing to change his vote away from [info]princeofwands yesterday) he's been acting fairly normal for him.

But thanks for not voting for me :)


Time:2005-09-21 15:41:49 GMT
Author:[info]parzanese
Subject:(none)
Link:7437#96781

Parent:#67
Siblings:(none)
Children:(none)
 #76
actually the next game at Millers Hollow will be two werewolves and two mafia


Time:2005-09-21 16:00:55 GMT
Author:[info]parzanese
Subject:Re: Dilemma
Link:7437#97293

Parent:#74
Siblings:(none)
Children:#78
#77
well I might point out that today, [info]airor, not vrelis was second on the list :)


Time:2005-09-21 16:10:57 GMT
Author:[info]princeofwands
Subject:Re: Dilemma
Link:7437#97549

Parent:#77
Siblings:(none)
Children:#79
#78
True, but that correlation only sticks for the first round. It's meaningless after that. Now, that he's pushing hard (the only aggressive voice this round) against a potentially very expensive mistake. That makes him suspect.

My only new suspect this round.

I'll update my vote as soon as I can review the current posts.


Time:2005-09-21 16:15:53 GMT
Author:[info]parzanese
Subject:Re: Dilemma
Link:7437#97805

Parent:#78
Siblings:(none)
Children:#83
#79
ok, I'm slightly confused . . . you're saying that the person who was second in the votes yesterday is a narc? and that usually the person who was second in the votes is a narc?


Time:2005-09-21 17:03:12 GMT
Author:[info]parzanese
Subject:(none)
Link:7437#98061

Parent:(none)
Siblings:#1 #3 #5 #14 #21 #46 #56 #68 #72 #73 #84 #93 #103 #104 #105
Children:(none)
 #80
You know you people amaze me . . . 178 comments yesterday, but when I'm in danger of being lynched no one shows up to save me and it only generates 79 comments. Thank you very much to everyone currently falling fall [info]airor's NARC setup ploy. Hope he arrests your asses cause I certainly won't be around after an hour to identify any more narcs.

And really, what have you got to lose. It's not like I can convince you to lynch the ninja as we already did that. Worse case, we get the chemist, and I'm sure [info]airor will not admit to being the chemist because he's a narc. Best case, we get a narc. If I'm wrong, you can all lynch my ass tomorrow and leave me as drama bait for the drama queen. But if I'm right, we're down to two narcs.

I mean come on here, it's not like I'm asking you to pick between me and a potential glowstick ninja.


Time:2005-09-21 17:11:04 GMT
Author:[info]joelzero
Subject:Re: Dilemma
Link:7437#98317

Parent:#59
Siblings:(none)
Children:#82
#81
Due to the Glow Stick Ninja's claims and your lack of any good reason to lynch [info]airor, I can't change my vote. Sorry Mayor.


Time:2005-09-21 17:14:45 GMT
Author:[info]parzanese
Subject:Re: Dilemma
Link:7437#98573

Parent:#81
Siblings:(none)
Children:#85
#82
wow, how nice for being topsy turvy there saying you were down with letting me proove myself and then changing your mind . . . thanks for nothing . . .

for christ's sake, it's day two, you have nothing to lose (not even the ninja) for giving me one chance to prove myself . . . and after my track record last game a whole lot to lose . . .


Time:2005-09-21 17:16:02 GMT
Author:[info]princeofwands
Subject:Re: Dilemma
Link:7437#98829

Parent:#79
Siblings:(none)
Children:#87
#83
While stabbing around in excel watching saturday morning cartoons with the cat last weekend I observed what looked like a very strong correlation. It was that when examing first round data, players that were voted for only 2-3 times were most often voted for by at least one wolf. (This is not 100%, btw!)

For example, in the recent [info]lupusintabula game, the following players received 2-3 votes in round one:
[info]gnatdbug: voted for by [info]kraydon and [info]stride
[info]parzanese: voted for by [info]gnatdbug and [info]stride

This puts [info]gnatdbug, [info]kraydon, and [info]stride all on my end of first round candidate-suspects lists.

Reruninng my grid after the final round one votes (sorry folks, I didn't expect to live through yesterday, and my memory was based on a morning run of the votes tally) yields candidate suspects: [info]flipperchaz, vrelis, [info]princeofwands, and [info]joelzero. I'm not a NARC. So there's three candidates. [info]joelzero is an unlikely candidate in his retalitory vote against vrelis, as wel las a possible GLOWSTICK NINJA recommendation, but still on the list.

Hrmnnnn.... [info]flipperchaz? Interesting.

I don't think I heard any claim from vrelis to not feed 'im to the NARCS. Or for that matter from [info]hungryandhollow, [info]airor, or [info]flipperchaz.

Hard to sort anything out of that mess.


Time:2005-09-21 17:19:12 GMT
Author:[info]princeofwands
Subject:(none)
Link:7437#99085

Parent:(none)
Siblings:#1 #3 #5 #14 #21 #46 #56 #68 #72 #73 #80 #93 #103 #104 #105
Children:(none)
 #84
[info]parzanese asked deep in a thread above about my assumptions on vrelis.
Look here for my reply:
http://www.livejournal.com/users/[info]raversofbrc/7437.html?thread=98829#t98829

I still this it's too expensive a mistake if we wrongly kill [info]parzanese this round.

unvote vrelis
vote [info]airor

No, there's not solid evidence supporting him as a NARC, but we're way short on evidence and he's suspicious and offered no defense.


Time:2005-09-21 17:19:45 GMT
Author:[info]joelzero
Subject:Re: Dilemma
Link:7437#99341

Parent:#82
Siblings:(none)
Children:#88
#85
Alright, I guess I'm down with that. You're instincts have been pretty good. [info]airor just dosn't seem like he's a Narc. Just like you, I have no good reason to believe this.

vote [info]airor


Time:2005-09-21 17:21:23 GMT
Author:[info]princeofwands
Subject:(none)
Link:7437#99597

Parent:#73
Siblings:#75
Children:#97
#86
A vote at this time for [info]hungryandhollow is a tossed away vote political statement. Swing votes will be cast between [info]parzanese, vrelis, and [info]airor. Sorry


Time:2005-09-21 17:23:02 GMT
Author:[info]parzanese
Subject:Re: Dilemma
Link:7437#99853

Parent:#83
Siblings:(none)
Children:#91
#87
I think that's because Narcs often just let the village take someone out on their own the first day while trying to not be responsible for the person who gets it . . . interesting theory . . . sadly I can't add any evidence to your list as vrelis and [info]flipperchaz are higher up on my list, but so are several other people along with them . . .

right now, my gut is telling me it's [info]airor (and his attacks on me, just like [info]gnatdbug's and [info]stride's attacks on the first day last game, are the clincher for me) and since a vote for vrelis won't save me right now, I'm leaving it . . . although, I hate to say it for vrelis, I would change my vote to save my ass if it would help . . .


Time:2005-09-21 17:27:01 GMT
Author:[info]parzanese
Subject:Re: Dilemma
Link:7437#100109

Parent:#85
Siblings:(none)
Children:#89
#88
thank you, well I figure I have a 50/50 chance being right and thus surviving tomorrow if I don't get lynched today :)

here have a beer, try the candy . . . want an Evil Ben snack, Extra Crispy flavor?


Time:2005-09-21 17:29:10 GMT
Author:[info]joelzero
Subject:Re: Dilemma
Link:7437#100365

Parent:#88
Siblings:(none)
Children:#90
#89
MMMmmmm...I think [info]evilben could become the new Colonel. You got some sauce for these?


Time:2005-09-21 17:30:52 GMT
Author:[info]parzanese
Subject:Re: Dilemma
Link:7437#100621

Parent:#89
Siblings:(none)
Children:(none)
 #90
[info]Jeeves, sauce . . . so would you like BBQ, ranch or honey mustard?


Time:2005-09-21 17:32:44 GMT
Author:[info]princeofwands
Subject:Re: Dilemma
Link:7437#100877

Parent:#87
Siblings:(none)
Children:#92
#91
Aleady ahead of you:
http://www.livejournal.com/users/[info]raversofbrc/7437.html?thread=99085


Time:2005-09-21 17:34:05 GMT
Author:[info]parzanese
Subject:Re: Dilemma
Link:7437#101133

Parent:#91
Siblings:(none)
Children:#100
#92
thanks :)


Time:2005-09-21 17:38:38 GMT
Author:[info]girlpurple
Subject:Catching up...
Link:7437#101389

Parent:(none)
Siblings:#1 #3 #5 #14 #21 #46 #56 #68 #72 #73 #80 #84 #103 #104 #105
Children:#96
#93
All righty then.

[info]parzanese, you are still very much at the top of my suspect list. However, [info]princeofwands makes a reasonable argument against taking you out this round.

unvote [info]parzanese
vote [info]airor


Time:2005-09-21 17:39:17 GMT
Author:[info]ilovetequila
Subject:(none)
Link:7437#101645

Parent:#75
Siblings:(none)
Children:#98
#94
That may be, I don't really know him. Seems like he's been a lot more vocal in previous games, though. Frankly, Mr. Mayor, if you're a raver I'd hate to see you go so soon, but if you're a narc I'd really like to see you go soon. :)



Time:2005-09-21 17:39:44 GMT
Author:[info]girlpurple
Subject:(none)
Link:7437#101901

Parent:#72
Siblings:#102
Children:(none)
 #95
Heh... "playatime" and "playabrain" have clearly set in...


Time:2005-09-21 17:40:45 GMT
Author:[info]parzanese
Subject:Re: Catching up...
Link:7437#102157

Parent:#93
Siblings:(none)
Children:(none)
 #96
thanks . . . :)


Time:2005-09-21 17:41:29 GMT
Author:[info]ilovetequila
Subject:(none)
Link:7437#102413

Parent:#86
Siblings:(none)
Children:#99
#97
I didn't make that vote at "this time", I made it quite some time ago. I am now considering whether to change my vote or let it stand.


Time:2005-09-21 17:43:33 GMT
Author:[info]parzanese
Subject:(none)
Link:7437#102669

Parent:#94
Siblings:(none)
Children:(none)
 #98
I understand that one . . . I'd agree on the same thing for you :) . . . although from a moderator point of view it was awesome watching you be a wolf last time :)


Time:2005-09-21 17:49:37 GMT
Author:[info]ilovetequila
Subject:(none)
Link:7437#102925

Parent:#97
Siblings:(none)
Children:(none)
 #99
Alright, since it's down to a vote between [info]airor and [info]parzanese I guess I will switch my vote up. I have so little to go on, but I don't think [info]parzanese would have agreed to take [info]the1mouse yesterday were he a narc and [info]airor has been rather quiet except to accuse [info]parzanese.

Vote [info]airor


Time:2005-09-21 17:50:16 GMT
Author:[info]princeofwands
Subject:Re: Dilemma
Link:7437#103181

Parent:#92
Siblings:(none)
Children:#101
#100
Mister Mayor, it would appear that the tide has turned in your favor. God help us all.

Magic word. Everybody drink some water.


Time:2005-09-21 17:53:12 GMT
Author:[info]parzanese
Subject:Re: Dilemma
Link:7437#103437

Parent:#100
Siblings:(none)
Children:(none)
 #101
actually god help me if I'm wrong, you guys will surely lynch me tomorrow :)

come to think of it, god help if I'm right too, the narcs will surely arrest me now if I am

so basically I got maybe a day left max :)

oh well, it was a fun game while it lasted . . .


Time:2005-09-21 17:55:29 GMT
Author:[info]amphitrite27
Subject:(none)
Link:7437#103693

Parent:#72
Siblings:#95
Children:(none)
 #102
I wanted to get back, but as I was wandering through the burning landscape, I had this vision. a terrible, scary vision of Office supplies, and a meeting.....


and arrrrgggggghhhh

*collapses and twitches*


Time:2005-09-21 17:58:35 GMT
Author:[info]parzanese
Subject:(none)
Link:7437#103949

Parent:(none)
Siblings:#1 #3 #5 #14 #21 #46 #56 #68 #72 #73 #80 #84 #93 #104 #105
Children:(none)
 #103
if I get arrested tonight my list of suspects is as follows:

HIGH: vrelis, [info]fu_urns, [info]gpeefalt, [info]kraydon followed by [info]hungryandhollow
MIDDLE: amphtrite27, [info]flipperchaz, [info]girlpurple, [info]pergatorigirl
LOW: [info]ilovetequila, [info]joelzero, [info]perkyevil, [info]princeofwands


Time:2005-09-21 18:00:45 GMT
Author:[info]raversofbrc
Subject:(none)
Link:7437#104205

Parent:(none)
Siblings:#1 #3 #5 #14 #21 #46 #56 #68 #72 #73 #80 #84 #93 #103 #105
Children:(none)
 #104
Post closed


Time:2005-09-21 18:06:10 GMT
Author:[info]amphitrite27
Subject:(none)
Link:7437#104461

Parent:(none)
Siblings:#1 #3 #5 #14 #21 #46 #56 #68 #72 #73 #80 #84 #93 #103 #104
Children:(none)
 #105
Sorry for coming into the game so late, since I missed most of the discussion, I don't want to cast a last minute vote and ruin the numbers....

so

vote [info]abstain

Stupid meetings of boring doom. a lot of the traffic occurs at night and in the morning, so if I have a meeting in the morning its hard for me to eb on top of things. But this should be the only such day this week.

Oh and if its not clear yet, this time, I am totally a small perky tiny female raver. Sooo innocent and tiny.

I'm a plurry little raver, look at my outfit!


Vote History
[info]kraydonvote[info]parzanese2005-09-20 22:52:05 GMT#6
[info]airorvote[info]parzanese2005-09-20 22:53:32 GMT#7
[info]parzanesevote[info]airor2005-09-20 22:56:35 GMT#9
[info]joelzerovote[info]parzanese2005-09-20 23:16:00 GMT#13
[info]girlpurplevote[info]parzanese2005-09-20 23:23:19 GMT#14
[info]princeofwandsvote[info]abstain2005-09-21 00:15:56 GMT#46
[info]flipperchazvote[info]parzanese2005-09-21 01:40:32 GMT#51
[info]flipperchazunvote[info]parzanese2005-09-21 01:56:48 GMT#54
[info]flipperchazvote[info]airor2005-09-21 01:56:48 GMT#54
[info]hungryandhollowvote[info]perkyevil2005-09-21 02:22:36 GMT#56
[info]ilovetequilavote[info]hungryandhollow2005-09-21 07:54:37 GMT#73
[info]princeofwandsvote[info]airor2005-09-21 17:19:12 GMT#84
[info]joelzerovote[info]airor2005-09-21 17:19:45 GMT#85
[info]girlpurpleunvote[info]parzanese2005-09-21 17:38:38 GMT#93
[info]girlpurplevote[info]airor2005-09-21 17:38:38 GMT#93
[info]ilovetequilavote[info]airor2005-09-21 17:49:37 GMT#99
[info]amphitrite27vote[info]abstain2005-09-21 18:06:10 GMT#105
Vote Summary
6 against[info]airor:[info]parzanese [info]princeofwands [info]ilovetequila [info]flipperchaz [info]girlpurple [info]joelzero
2 against[info]parzanese:[info]kraydon [info]airor
1 against[info]perkyevil:[info]hungryandhollow
1 against[info]abstain:[info]amphitrite27
Posted but no vote:[info]gpeefalt [info]perkyevil [info]raversofbrc
Posting Statistics
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