millershollow - Day 10

Link:153059 Sat Jan 23 00:18:21 2010

It took most of the night for the village to put out the fire at the town hall. Thus when the sun finally shown the next morning, the entire town was weary and tired from lack of sleep. The villagers, exhausted from their long night, gathered at the skeleton of the former town hall, the stench of burnt wolf thick in the air. One by one they counted each other off and sure enough, another one of their numbers was dead.

The wandered glumly to [info]cuddlycthulhu's cottage where they found buttler[info]jeeves and some [info]evilben clones dragging his mauled body outside. "Take it down to the sub-basement." [info]Jeeves ordered the clones. "It will make a nice meal for the creature imprisoned down there."

SUMMARY: [info]cuddlycthulhu the VILLAGER is DEAD!

Day will end at 11am Monday.
Time:2007-07-27 18:18:18 GMT
Author:[info]daedalus4096
Subject:(none)
Link:153059#2349027

Parent:(none)
Siblings:#3 #6 #8 #10 #14 #28 #29 #33 #36 #40 #43 #44 #70 #79 #91 #103 #105 #108 #116 #118 #120
Children:#2
#1
...WTF?!

Dammit, I thought I had this figured out, too!


Time:2007-07-27 18:19:47 GMT
Author:[info]lorriet
Subject:(none)
Link:153059#2349539

Parent:#1
Siblings:(none)
Children:#4
#2
Well, there are two options here: You did it...or someone is trying to frame you. :P


Time:2007-07-27 18:20:37 GMT
Author:[info]daedalus4096
Subject:(none)
Link:153059#2350051

Parent:(none)
Siblings:#1 #6 #8 #10 #14 #28 #29 #33 #36 #40 #43 #44 #70 #79 #91 #103 #105 #108 #116 #118 #120
Children:#55
#3
To be clear...

Why the hell didn't they eat H&H?! Just because it was a continuation of the previous plan? Or is it an attempt to implicate me?

If H&H is lying and the real Cupid hasn't spoken up, I'm going to be *pissed*. Until then, he's above reproach.


Time:2007-07-27 18:21:53 GMT
Author:[info]daedalus4096
Subject:(none)
Link:153059#2350563

Parent:#2
Siblings:(none)
Children:#5
#4
Well, I know I didn't do it. As for convincing the lot of you of that... I could have a problem.

I'm off to get lunch now, so I'll be back in a bit. And no, I didn't just eat already! :P


Time:2007-07-27 18:22:14 GMT
Author:[info]lorriet
Subject:(none)
Link:153059#2351075

Parent:#4
Siblings:(none)
Children:#7
#5
Try the fried calamari. ;)


Time:2007-07-27 18:22:33 GMT
Author:[info]hungryandhollow
Subject:(none)
Link:153059#2351331

Parent:(none)
Siblings:#1 #3 #8 #10 #14 #28 #29 #33 #36 #40 #43 #44 #70 #79 #91 #103 #105 #108 #116 #118 #120
Children:(none)
 #6
LOL WHAT


Time:2007-07-27 18:22:50 GMT
Author:[info]daedalus4096
Subject:(none)
Link:153059#2351587

Parent:#5
Siblings:(none)
Children:#9
#7
Eww... Me no likey the squid...


Time:2007-07-27 18:23:52 GMT
Author:[info]hungryandhollow
Subject:(none)
Link:153059#2352099

Parent:(none)
Siblings:#1 #3 #6 #10 #14 #28 #29 #33 #36 #40 #43 #44 #70 #79 #91 #103 #105 #108 #116 #118 #120
Children:#11 #13 #78
#8
I AM RIDICULOUSLY BAFFLED. I thought I would be dead, which would almost be convenient since i'm going to a family reunion this weekend. Well, time to read yesterday's stuff and see what I can work out before I leave...


Time:2007-07-27 18:23:55 GMT
Author:[info]parzanese
Subject:(none)
Link:153059#2352355

Parent:#7
Siblings:(none)
Children:#23
#9
what? you don't like me? you bastard!


Time:2007-07-27 18:25:44 GMT
Author:[info]lorriet
Subject:(none)
Link:153059#2353123

Parent:(none)
Siblings:#1 #3 #6 #8 #14 #28 #29 #33 #36 #40 #43 #44 #70 #79 #91 #103 #105 #108 #116 #118 #120
Children:(none)
 #10
So, we have:

One sorcerer
One wolf
One Cupid
Three villagers

Two of those are lovers. The lovers can't vote to lynch each other, or to eat the other lover.

Hm...


Time:2007-07-27 18:26:53 GMT
Author:[info]lorriet
Subject:(none)
Link:153059#2353379

Parent:#8
Siblings:#13 #78
Children:#12
#11
I think the wolf was still hoping to get the lovers. Unless he is one of the lovers...


Time:2007-07-27 18:31:54 GMT
Author:[info]cambler
Subject:(none)
Link:153059#2354659

Parent:#11
Siblings:(none)
Children:(none)
 #12
I agree, that makes the most sense.


Time:2007-07-27 18:37:08 GMT
Author:[info]gorillashaman
Subject:(none)
Link:153059#2355939

Parent:#8
Siblings:#11 #78
Children:#15
#13
My guess would be that the remaining wolf was trying to go for the lovers, and missed. Since you're an undisputed cupid, it is unlikely you'd be a lover.

Now why [info]cuddlycthulhu? It looks like a clumsy attempt to frame [info]daedalus4096. Or maybe [info]daedalus4096 wants us to think that to remove suspicion from himself. More wine in front of me.

He sort of does look suspicious though, for defending makallen and the whole thing between him and [info]cuddlycthulhu at the end of yesterday.

vote [info]daedalus4096

until someone suggests something better, although he feels more like the SORCERER than a WOLF to me.


Here's the remaining list:


[info]cambler
[info]daedalus4096
[info]devil_engine
[info]gorillashaman
[info]hungryandhollow
[info]lorriet

DEAD:
[info]chessiekitty the VILLAGER
[info]evilben the VILLAGER
[info]giantlaser the VILLAGER
[info]gnatdbug the VILLAGER
[info]maniakes the WITCH
[info]myshanter the SERIAL KILLER
[info]rustymaggot the VILLAGER
[info]slojae the VILLAGER
[info]sonicbunny the VILLAGER
[info]amphitrite27 the HUNTER
[info]baronlaw the WEREWOLF
[info]blackbeardin the SEER
[info]dragonattack the WEREWOLF
[info]stride the VILLAGER
[info]makellan the WEREWOLF
[info]flipperchaz the VILLAGER
[info]ragnarok_now the MAGISTRATE
[info]darkjuan the WEREWOLF
[info]cuddlycthulhu the VILLAGER

Left:
1 wolf
1 Sorcerer
1 Cupid
1 [info][info]Nader


Time:2007-07-27 18:39:08 GMT
Author:[info]hungryandhollow
Subject:(none)
Link:153059#2356195

Parent:(none)
Siblings:#1 #3 #6 #8 #10 #28 #29 #33 #36 #40 #43 #44 #70 #79 #91 #103 #105 #108 #116 #118 #120
Children:#17 #18
#14
I'm suspicious of Daedelus, after all that hullabaloo at the end of "yesterday", and still suspicious of [info]Lorriet a little. Right now that's all I've got. I may have figured out why I'm still alive, but I don't want to give anything away just yet. Let's just say I'm pretty sure we're going to come out on top of this, if I've worked it out right. I think one or two other people here might understand what's going on, so if you do and you think it's time to put the cards on the table, let me know.


Time:2007-07-27 18:42:08 GMT
Author:[info]hungryandhollow
Subject:(none)
Link:153059#2356963

Parent:#13
Siblings:(none)
Children:#16 #47 #66 #96
#15
Frankly, at this point getting a sorcerer would be almost as good as a wolf. If we don't lynch a wolf or sorcerer tonight, we're almost certainly going to lose.

vote [info]Daedalus4096


Time:2007-07-27 18:48:16 GMT
Author:[info]cambler
Subject:(none)
Link:153059#2357475

Parent:#15
Siblings:#47 #66 #96
Children:(none)
 #16
It's a long weekend, so with the caveat that a good argument might sway me, I can't help but agree.

vote [info]daedalus4096


Time:2007-07-27 18:50:08 GMT
Author:[info]cambler
Subject:(none)
Link:153059#2357731

Parent:#14
Siblings:#18
Children:#19 #21
#17
I think I've figured it out, too.

The remaining wolf is either daedelus or loriet.


Time:2007-07-27 18:50:38 GMT
Author:[info]lorriet
Subject:(none)
Link:153059#2357987

Parent:#14
Siblings:#17
Children:#26
#18
I think everyone putting cards on the table today might be bad. If we get the wrong person (meaning not a wolf) today, things could go very wrong.


Time:2007-07-27 18:53:14 GMT
Author:[info]lorriet
Subject:(none)
Link:153059#2358755

Parent:#17
Siblings:#21
Children:#20
#19
Just so I don't forget to respond: I'm not a wolf. I'm not a sorcerer.



Time:2007-07-27 18:55:18 GMT
Author:[info]cambler
Subject:(none)
Link:153059#2359779

Parent:#19
Siblings:(none)
Children:(none)
 #20
Of course.


Time:2007-07-27 18:55:35 GMT
Author:[info]lorriet
Subject:(none)
Link:153059#2360035

Parent:#17
Siblings:#19
Children:#22
#21
Care to explain the thought behind suspecting me?


Time:2007-07-27 18:58:24 GMT
Author:[info]cambler
Subject:(none)
Link:153059#2360803

Parent:#21
Siblings:(none)
Children:(none)
 #22
No, because that would require outing all of the suspicions, and I agree, that would be a bad idea right now. Next turn, it will be MANDATORY in order to survive, though, if a villager is lynched tonight.


Time:2007-07-27 19:04:09 GMT
Author:[info]daedalus4096
Subject:(none)
Link:153059#2361571

Parent:#9
Siblings:(none)
Children:#24
#23
*Eating* the squid, Joe. I don't like *eating* the squid. :P


Time:2007-07-27 19:05:23 GMT
Author:[info]parzanese
Subject:(none)
Link:153059#2361827

Parent:#23
Siblings:(none)
Children:#25
#24
ok, alright then . . . I don't want you eating me either . . .


Time:2007-07-27 19:15:32 GMT
Author:[info]lorriet
Subject:(none)
Link:153059#2362851

Parent:#24
Siblings:(none)
Children:#27
#25
This just crossed the border into Disturbia.


Time:2007-07-27 19:19:25 GMT
Author:[info]hungryandhollow
Subject:(none)
Link:153059#2363619

Parent:#18
Siblings:(none)
Children:#31 #95
#26
I wasn't saying everyone should put their cards on the table, but I've been working on some strategies and some numbers for a while. I think [info]Gorillashaman has probably been thinking along similar lines, and maybe [info]Cambler as well, it would fit both of their style... I don't want to come out and give it all away, but if one or both of them has been thinking what I'm thinking, regarding numbers and so forth, we've got this won for sure.


Time:2007-07-27 19:22:36 GMT
Author:[info]hungryandhollow
Subject:(none)
Link:153059#2364131

Parent:#25
Siblings:(none)
Children:(none)
 #27
As opposed to the rest of this sane, orderly, predictable game? :P


Time:2007-07-27 19:23:44 GMT
Author:[info]daedalus4096
Subject:(none)
Link:153059#2364387

Parent:(none)
Siblings:#1 #3 #6 #8 #10 #14 #29 #33 #36 #40 #43 #44 #70 #79 #91 #103 #105 #108 #116 #118 #120
Children:#30
#28
I am neither a wolf nor the sorcerer. Obviously I don't expect any of you to take my word for that, particularly given some of the poor decisions I've made this game. I'm currently trying to gather evidence of the real remaining wolf and will post again when I have something. Please keep an open mind.


Time:2007-07-27 19:32:17 GMT
Author:[info]lorriet
Subject:(none)
Link:153059#2364643

Parent:(none)
Siblings:#1 #3 #6 #8 #10 #14 #28 #33 #36 #40 #43 #44 #70 #79 #91 #103 #105 #108 #116 #118 #120
Children:#32
#29
So, are most people assuming that [info]devil_engine is innocent, just a vitcim of being uninformed?


Time:2007-07-27 19:32:59 GMT
Author:[info]hungryandhollow
Subject:(none)
Link:153059#2364899

Parent:#28
Siblings:(none)
Children:(none)
 #30
I'm not saying I'll vote for you no matter what - I am open to arguments - but you have to admit you looks more suspicious than anyone else.


Time:2007-07-27 20:42:06 GMT
Author:[info]cambler
Subject:(none)
Link:153059#2370275

Parent:#26
Siblings:#95
Children:(none)
 #31
If you're thinking what I'm thinking, and I think you are, it's not won.

There's one wolf move, that would require a little luck on the wolf part, that would guarantee THEM a win, provided we don't lynch the last one tonight.

Hence, I'm keeping my mouth shut on anything except who I think the last wolf is (said below).


Time:2007-07-27 20:45:04 GMT
Author:[info]hungryandhollow
Subject:(none)
Link:153059#2370531

Parent:#29
Siblings:(none)
Children:(none)
 #32
i am, personally.


Time:2007-07-27 21:20:36 GMT
Author:[info]cambler
Subject:(none)
Link:153059#2371555

Parent:(none)
Siblings:#1 #3 #6 #8 #10 #14 #28 #29 #36 #40 #43 #44 #70 #79 #91 #103 #105 #108 #116 #118 #120
Children:#34 #38 #51
#33
Oh, that makes MUCH more sense now.

unvote [info]daedalus4096

vote [info]devil_engine


Time:2007-07-27 21:38:24 GMT
Author:[info]lorriet
Subject:(none)
Link:153059#2371811

Parent:#33
Siblings:#38 #51
Children:#35
#34
*raises an eyebrow*

Really?

*looks doubtful*


Time:2007-07-27 22:02:48 GMT
Author:[info]cambler
Subject:(none)
Link:153059#2372835

Parent:#34
Siblings:(none)
Children:#37
#35
Unless you're the last wolf, which would be a 50/50 proposition, yes.


Time:2007-07-27 22:05:04 GMT
Author:[info]devil_engine
Subject:(none)
Link:153059#2373091

Parent:(none)
Siblings:#1 #3 #6 #8 #10 #14 #28 #29 #33 #40 #43 #44 #70 #79 #91 #103 #105 #108 #116 #118 #120
Children:#46
#36
From everything I'm gathering thus far, from reading between the lines between [info]cambler and H&H and hoping that I understand what they mean...I'm going to go with vote [info]Daedalus4096


Time:2007-07-27 22:05:56 GMT
Author:[info]lorriet
Subject:(none)
Link:153059#2373603

Parent:#35
Siblings:(none)
Children:#39
#37
Well, while I'm not a wolf, I don't know that I trust your "because I say so" logic.

First it's me or Daedalus, now me or [info]devil_engine.

It kind of makes me suspect you.


Time:2007-07-27 22:05:56 GMT
Author:[info]devil_engine
Subject:(none)
Link:153059#2373347

Parent:#33
Siblings:#34 #51
Children:(none)
 #38
looks as if you'll be resorting to your mandatory plan should we lose me.


Time:2007-07-27 22:09:07 GMT
Author:[info]cambler
Subject:(none)
Link:153059#2373859

Parent:#37
Siblings:(none)
Children:#41
#39
You've been a 50/50 from the start. But I just noticed why Daedalus should be eliminated as a suspect. that only leaves [info]devil_engine.


Time:2007-07-27 22:09:46 GMT
Author:[info]lorriet
Subject:(none)
Link:153059#2374115

Parent:(none)
Siblings:#1 #3 #6 #8 #10 #14 #28 #29 #33 #36 #43 #44 #70 #79 #91 #103 #105 #108 #116 #118 #120
Children:(none)
 #40
The way I see it, there are two scenarios that could be happening:

The remaining wolf has is trying to get to the lovers OR

The remaining wolf IS a lover, and is trying for the Lover's Victory thingy.

I don't see [info]devil_engine being sophisticated enough in the game to go for the second scenario. And, seeing as he nearly offed himself the other day, I don't have reason to really suspect him at this point, unless he's the best bluffer EVER.


Time:2007-07-27 22:25:51 GMT
Author:[info]lorriet
Subject:(none)
Link:153059#2374883

Parent:#39
Siblings:(none)
Children:#42
#41
Knowing for a certainty that you are 100% wrong about me makes me question your deductive methods and definitely your conclusions.


Time:2007-07-27 22:28:43 GMT
Author:[info]cambler
Subject:(none)
Link:153059#2375139

Parent:#41
Siblings:(none)
Children:(none)
 #42
I didn't say I was 100% certain about you. I said that it had to be you or one other, and after eliminating Daed, that leaves [info]devil_engine.

It's either you or him.


Time:2007-07-27 22:43:16 GMT
Author:[info]lorriet
Subject:(none)
Link:153059#2375395

Parent:(none)
Siblings:#1 #3 #6 #8 #10 #14 #28 #29 #33 #36 #40 #44 #70 #79 #91 #103 #105 #108 #116 #118 #120
Children:(none)
 #43
Interesting...a few days ago, H&H had this to say "Well, much as I'd like to stay alive, I don't think it's likely I'll reveal the lovers. I'm still holding out for a lover win someday, unlikely as that may be."

I wonder if he places more trust in his lovers, because he picked them. I wonder if he would sacrifice Miller's Hollow to achieve that. It is possible that we have 1 wolf, 1 villager lovers.

I think [info]Cambler, regardless of any mysterious calculations that he has done, is wrong on his guesses for today.

I'm not ready to vote yet, I need to think more. I had already eliminated Daedalus from my suspect list a day or so ago. But, the options I am left with don't make total sense, either.


Time:2007-07-27 23:09:02 GMT
Author:[info]daedalus4096
Subject:(none)
Link:153059#2375651

Parent:(none)
Siblings:#1 #3 #6 #8 #10 #14 #28 #29 #33 #36 #40 #43 #70 #79 #91 #103 #105 #108 #116 #118 #120
Children:#45 #50 #58
#44
Okay. I think I've got this figured out.

The last wolf is [info]Cambler.
He and [info]Gorillashaman are the lovers.
Here's why.

First, some base assumptions.
1) [info]Hungryandhollow is being truthful about his role as Cupid. As nobody has challenged his claim, I'm willing to accept this.
2) [info]Hungryandhollow is not one of the lovers. He's been one of them enough times in the past to know that being in love is only a hindrance in this game.
3) I am not one of the lovers. To prove it: Vote [info]Lorriet, Unvote [info]Lorriet, Vote [info]Abstain. I have now voted for or been voted for by every surviving player. It is mechanically impossible for me to be one of the lovers.
4) I am not a wolf. Understandably, this one will be the hardest for you all to accept. Let me just say that if I were a wolf, I would have played this game *much* differently than they have. If people wish to hear further evidence in my own defense, I will happily provide it.

First, let me establish that the two of them are the lovers, as this is the easiest to show. Based on previous votes, there are currently only four possibilities as to who the lovers could be, assuming that you accept the above assumptions regarding the lovers:
- [info]Cambler & [info]Gorillashaman
- [info]Lorriet & [info]Cambler
- [info]Lorriet & [info]Devil_engine
- [info]Lorriet & [info]Gorillashaman
While [info]Lorriet is statistically most the most likely to be one of the lovers, I don't believe this is the case for two reasons. First, H&H yesterday said that he would want to see a lover victory. However, he also voted for [info]Lorriet that day. As these actions are inconsistent, the only possibility that leaves is [info]Cambler and [info]Gorillashaman.

In order to achieve a lover's victory, [info]Cambler would have to ensure that all of his fellow wolves were lynched, but not too fast or too slow. Too fast, and he'd run out of places to hide from the villagers. Too slow, and he wouldn't be able to remove the remaining wolves without giving his intentions away. To this end, after a long streak of villager kills, including the devastating double loss of the witch and the hunter, he had to risk voting for [info]Baronlaw after a consensus had already started forming. Being the other most experienced wolf in the pack, [info]Baronlaw was the one most likely to figure out [info]Cambler's true motives. When the seer came out on day 5, [info]Baronlaw's death was then unavoidable, as was [info]Dragonattack's; he could vote for them with impunity.

[info]Cambler was also the first and most vocal opponent of my suggestion for debate after [info]Makellan was turned. Yes, it was a very suspicious thing for me to do; I knew that when I said it. But only [info]Cambler went so far as to accuse me of being a wolf when I did so, even saying that my request for debate wouldn't be helpful even if I was right. He had to discredit me, not just because he couldn't afford a new wolf in the pack, but because I'd chosen his lover as my talking point.

Continued in reply, due to post length...


Time:2007-07-27 23:09:28 GMT
Author:[info]daedalus4096
Subject:(none)
Link:153059#2375907

Parent:#44
Siblings:#50 #58
Children:#48 #49
#45
Continued from above...

Another pattern of their cooperation emerged yesterday. By this point, [info]Gorillashaman had likely figured out that [info]Cambler and [info]Darkjuan were the remaining wolves, possibly with subtle help from [info]Cambler. [info]Gorillashaman latched onto [info]Devil_engine's suicide attempt, [info]Cambler kicked it up a notch, and [info]Gorillashaman immediately followed suit. Once it became clear that [info]Devil_engine wasn't going to remain a viable victim, [info]Gorillashaman backed off and diverted the group's attention to [info]Darkjuan. [info]Cambler removed his [info]Devil_engine vote in support, but chose to [info]abstain. He likely figured that if he turned on his last wolf obstacle in such a close vote, [info]Darkjuan may have outed them both in retaliation; voting for someone else, though, would risk an unintended target change.

Today, [info]Cambler's "suspects" are shifting between three possibilities: me, [info]Lorriet, and [info]Devil_engine. After all, we're the three targets he has left. H&H's credibility is thus far above reproach and he dare not draw any attention to [info]Gorillashaman. Similarly, [info]Gorillashaman has taken advantage of my spat with [info]Cuddlycthulhu yesterday to make a very tempting target out of me, and [info]Cambler promptly joined the dogpile.

So, this leaves us in a bit of a quandry. The wolf and his lover have whittled us down to a very small population pool. The sorcerer is likely going to support his wolf master now that they know who that is, assuming they didn't already, potentially bringing team evil up to three. As I suspect that [info]Gorillashaman is also the sorcerer, though, we may be lucky on this count.

The wild card, then, is Cupid. He's still alive, despite all odds, by the grace of the lovers. He's stated that he wants a Lovers' Victory, which I believe is why they've spared him. The question, then, is what [info]Hungryandhollow is going to do with this information. If he sides with [info]Cambler and [info]Gorillashaman, they have 50% of the vote and the rest of us are screwed. If he doesn't, we can end this now.

So Cupid, what's it gonna be?

Oh yeah, I almost forgot...
Vote [info]Cambler


Time:2007-07-27 23:13:13 GMT
Author:[info]daedalus4096
Subject:(none)
Link:153059#2376163

Parent:#36
Siblings:(none)
Children:(none)
 #46
Please see my post below and reconsider.


Time:2007-07-27 23:13:35 GMT
Author:[info]daedalus4096
Subject:(none)
Link:153059#2376419

Parent:#15
Siblings:#16 #66 #96
Children:(none)
 #47
Please see my post below and reconsider.


Time:2007-07-27 23:39:47 GMT
Author:[info]lorriet
Subject:(none)
Link:153059#2376675

Parent:#45
Siblings:#49
Children:#53 #57
#48
That meshes with my thoughts.

vote [info]cambler

So, H&H, [info]Devil_Engine? What say you?


Time:2007-07-27 23:48:26 GMT
Author:[info]daedalus4096
Subject:(none)
Link:153059#2376931

Parent:#45
Siblings:#48
Children:(none)
 #49
And remember, Sorcerer... Whoever you are, you win on a wolf victory, *not* a lover victory. He's already sold you out. You might as well return the favor.


Time:2007-07-28 00:16:42 GMT
Author:[info]gorillashaman
Subject:(none)
Link:153059#2377443

Parent:#44
Siblings:#45 #58
Children:#52
#50
With the exception of your lover vote analysis, that's all pure speculation.

I do hope you realize that your ever-so-clever series of vote/unvote for [info]lorriet to prove yourself not a lover has reduced the possible lover combinations for the wolves tonight. If you really are a villager, you may have just handed the wolves the game, both by reducing the possibilities for lovers and pointing out who they should munch.

Way to go. Are you sure you're not the sorcerer?


Time:2007-07-28 00:25:46 GMT
Author:[info]gorillashaman
Subject:(none)
Link:153059#2377955

Parent:#33
Siblings:#34 #38
Children:#56
#51
Can you elucidate us as to why you switched?


Time:2007-07-28 00:25:57 GMT
Author:[info]daedalus4096
Subject:(none)
Link:153059#2378211

Parent:#50
Siblings:(none)
Children:#54
#52
Perhaps you've forgotten, but pretty much everything in this game is speculation. The opportunities for hard evidence are spectacularly rare. I've laid out what I think is a pretty solid theory with links to back it up. What've you got?

As for the lovers, I've made no meaningful reduction in the number of wolf targets. The only options before were You+[info]Cambler and [info]Lorriet+somebody. Anybody who can read could tell that. I removed [info]Lorriet+me, leaving three other [info]Lorriet+somebody choices. Eating [info]Lorriet would cover any of those possibilities and you know it. The number of lover targets for the wolves remain unchanged and your willful oversight of this only reinforces my theory.



Time:2007-07-28 00:52:00 GMT
Author:[info]gorillashaman
Subject:(none)
Link:153059#2378467

Parent:#48
Siblings:#57
Children:#62
#53
Lorrie, don't let [info]daedalus4096 confuse you.

As [info]daedalus4096 so kindly pointed out for all of "team evil" to see, we all now know that in addition to the cupid, you also know for sure who the lovers are.

Every thing else [info]daedalus4096 posted was speculation.

In particular, note that in a field of 6 players, one of which is a wolf, there is only a 33% chance that the lovers are a villager/wolf pair.

Do [info]cambler's actions really look wolfie?

Or is [info]daedalus4096 perhaps leading you by the nose to eliminate one "maybe lover" today so the wolf can eat the other "maybe lover" tonight, thus mopping up the game for team furry?

Or to put it more bluntly...

If the most likely case that the lovers are a pair of villagers and we lynch [info]cambler today, and the wolf eats you tonight (or vice versa), the lovers are gone for sure, and we're left with 1 wolf and 2 villagers tomorrow.

HOWEVER, by [info]daedalus4096's own logic and claims, he can't be a lover. If we lynch him today (even if we're wrong and he's a villager) and the wolf loses the coin toss and don't manage to eat the lovers tonight, we face tomorrow with 1 wolf and 3 villagers, which is a much, much better position to be in.


Time:2007-07-28 00:56:20 GMT
Author:[info]gorillashaman
Subject:(none)
Link:153059#2378723

Parent:#52
Siblings:(none)
Children:#59
#54
Sure, but you didn't need to scream it to the wind, did you?

If you're right and the wolf is [info]cambler, yeah, he'd have figured it out. But what if you're wrong and it was an inexperienced wolf like [info]devil_engine (no offense intended here)? Maybe they'd have missed it.

No chance of that now though, eh?


Time:2007-07-28 00:57:22 GMT
Author:[info]gorillashaman
Subject:(none)
Link:153059#2378979

Parent:#3
Siblings:(none)
Children:(none)
 #55
I thought that was obvious. [info]hungryandhollow is very likely not a lover. Why eat him when you could get a chance for a 2-for-1 ?


Time:2007-07-28 01:01:44 GMT
Author:[info]cambler
Subject:(none)
Link:153059#2379235

Parent:#51
Siblings:(none)
Children:#65
#56
Not without revealing who the lovers are, which is now clear.

Interestingly, I think you'll be able to figure it out whereas others may not.


Time:2007-07-28 01:01:54 GMT
Author:[info]devil_engine
Subject:(none)
Link:153059#2379491

Parent:#48
Siblings:#53
Children:#67
#57
aye ma'am, I'm seeing things abit differently at this point

unvote [info]daedalus4096

vote [info]cambler


Time:2007-07-28 01:13:27 GMT
Author:[info]gorillashaman
Subject:(none)
Link:153059#2379747

Parent:#44
Siblings:#45 #50
Children:#60
#58
From the [info]hungryandhollow post you linked to:

I don't think [info]devil_engine is a wolf, I think he's just confused. For now i'm going to vo te [info]lorriet on the basis that she's a girl, and therefore is inherently a liar :P

Seems a bit tongue in cheek to me to hang an entire "[info]cambler is a wolf lover" theory on. Note also that he changed his vote later in the day. This makes your theory even more dicey.


Time:2007-07-28 02:11:45 GMT
Author:[info]daedalus4096
Subject:(none)
Link:153059#2380003

Parent:#54
Siblings:(none)
Children:#61
#59
And maybe he wouldn't have. Security through obscurity is no security at all.


Time:2007-07-28 02:18:12 GMT
Author:[info]daedalus4096
Subject:(none)
Link:153059#2380259

Parent:#58
Siblings:(none)
Children:#69
#60
I disagree.


Time:2007-07-28 02:30:46 GMT
Author:[info]gorillashaman
Subject:(none)
Link:153059#2380515

Parent:#59
Siblings:(none)
Children:#63
#61
That is a long term argument applied to a decidedly short term situation.


Time:2007-07-28 02:38:31 GMT
Author:[info]lorriet
Subject:(none)
Link:153059#2380771

Parent:#53
Siblings:(none)
Children:#64
#62
If you look at my previous post, I already had the suspicion that a wolf/villager combo was not only possible, but likely.

Sadly, I suck at this game. As soon as I posted before, then daedalus totally fit with my concept, I thought about it, and I said "Damn, I suck at this game" and second guessed myself. Fortunately, I have a whole weekend to stew and think about this. There are things that still don't add up to me...


Time:2007-07-28 02:41:51 GMT
Author:[info]daedalus4096
Subject:(none)
Link:153059#2381027

Parent:#61
Siblings:(none)
Children:(none)
 #63
It's also a very good short-term argument. The only people left here who didn't have firsthand knowledge of the lovers' identities were me and [info]Devil_engine. I figured it out and I see no reason that he couldn't have either. Besides, after his attempted self-immolation yesterday, I don't think anyone left here still seriously considers him to be a wolf.


Time:2007-07-28 02:43:44 GMT
Author:[info]daedalus4096
Subject:(none)
Link:153059#2381283

Parent:#62
Siblings:(none)
Children:(none)
 #64
It's okay, I suck at it too. :) If I didn't, I would've figured this out days ago.


Time:2007-07-28 02:46:18 GMT
Author:[info]gorillashaman
Subject:(none)
Link:153059#2381539

Parent:#56
Siblings:(none)
Children:#68
#65
I'm trusting you on this one, but you need to convince at least one other person to follow suit, or things go south real fast.

unvote [info]daedalus4096
vote [info]devil_engine


Time:2007-07-28 02:47:03 GMT
Author:[info]gorillashaman
Subject:(none)
Link:153059#2381795

Parent:#15
Siblings:#16 #47 #96
Children:(none)
 #66
Change your vote to [info]devil_engine.


Time:2007-07-28 02:49:42 GMT
Author:[info]gorillashaman
Subject:(none)
Link:153059#2382051

Parent:#57
Siblings:(none)
Children:#71
#67
I honestly think that's a losing move.


Time:2007-07-28 02:54:48 GMT
Author:[info]cambler
Subject:(none)
Link:153059#2382307

Parent:#65
Siblings:(none)
Children:(none)
 #68
I would like to see [info]lorriet follow suit, otherwise my coin-flip chance would implicate her. Given a choice, I think [info]devil_engine's behavior yesterday actually makes wolfy sense, so that's why I'm leaning towards him being the one.


Time:2007-07-28 02:59:30 GMT
Author:[info]cambler
Subject:(none)
Link:153059#2382563

Parent:#60
Siblings:(none)
Children:#72
#69
I don't. I'm not a wolf and not a lover, either.

But I do think that you got it right. I might as well say it now, the lovers are, as you said, [info]Lorriet & [info]Devil_engine.

[info]Devil_engine is the wolf.

He was prepared to sacrifice himself to take out [info]Lorriet, the villager.

I urge you to change your vote to [info]devil_engine


Time:2007-07-28 03:00:16 GMT
Author:[info]cambler
Subject:(none)
Link:153059#2382819

Parent:(none)
Siblings:#1 #3 #6 #8 #10 #14 #28 #29 #33 #36 #40 #43 #44 #79 #91 #103 #105 #108 #116 #118 #120
Children:#73
#70
This is important enough to get it top-level. My reply, above:

I'm not a wolf and not a lover, either.

But I do think that you got it right. I might as well say it now, the lovers are, as you said, [info]Lorriet & [info]Devil_engine.

[info]Devil_engine is the wolf.

He was prepared to sacrifice himself to take out [info]Lorriet, the villager.

I urge you to change your vote to [info]devil_engine


Time:2007-07-28 03:01:29 GMT
Author:[info]cambler
Subject:(none)
Link:153059#2383075

Parent:#67
Siblings:(none)
Children:(none)
 #71
I agree - see my latest first-level post.


Time:2007-07-28 03:15:36 GMT
Author:[info]daedalus4096
Subject:(none)
Link:153059#2383331

Parent:#69
Siblings:(none)
Children:#74
#72
Are you kidding me? You seriously expect anybody to believe that a wolf would sacrifice himself to kill a villager? The Seer I could *maybe* buy that for *if* the wolf wasn't interested in or didn't know about the lovers' victory. But an ordinary villager? Your suggestion is beyond ludicrous.


Time:2007-07-28 03:21:28 GMT
Author:[info]daedalus4096
Subject:(none)
Link:153059#2383843

Parent:#70
Siblings:(none)
Children:#75
#73
The rebuttal to your claim is important to make visible as well.

The idea that a wolf would sacrifice himself to take out an ordinary villager is patently absurd. Even if said wolf didn't know about the Lovers' Victory, there's no reason whatsoever to make such a sacrifice.


Time:2007-07-28 03:26:23 GMT
Author:[info]cambler
Subject:(none)
Link:153059#2384355

Parent:#72
Siblings:(none)
Children:(none)
 #74
he's a noob. he doesn't know better and thought it was a good move. that's dead obvious.

or lynch [info]lorriet - same result, last wolf dead.


Time:2007-07-28 03:31:45 GMT
Author:[info]cambler
Subject:(none)
Link:153059#2384611

Parent:#73
Siblings:(none)
Children:#76
#75
see above. he's a noob and thought he was making a smart move.


Time:2007-07-28 03:36:57 GMT
Author:[info]daedalus4096
Subject:(none)
Link:153059#2384867

Parent:#75
Siblings:(none)
Children:#77
#76
Self-sacrifice is a move of last resort, not a cunning stratagem. Sir, your idea of an "explanation" is so transparently false that it belies your desperation. Fortunately for the rest of us, the two people that your accusing both know for a fact that you're lying. You're doing my job for me, and for that alone I thank you.


Time:2007-07-28 03:48:55 GMT
Author:[info]cambler
Subject:(none)
Link:153059#2385123

Parent:#76
Siblings:(none)
Children:#81
#77
Oh please! A clear ad-hominem! You're not refuting my claim, you're just saying how silly it is.

The truth is that it's not silly at all. He's a noob, he thought he was making a good move. How is that any less logical than his voting for himself in the first place?! Were he a simple, vanilla villager, that would have been even SILLIER, yet his excuse was, "oh, well, I'm new and stupid."

Hardly. He was coached.

Of course the two people I'm accusing know the truth, and they're surely going to deny it.

Bottom line, the logic is clear and unassailable - shown by the fact that you're not trying to argue against it. You're just name-calling.


Time:2007-07-28 03:51:48 GMT
Author:[info]cambler
Subject:(none)
Link:153059#2385379

Parent:#8
Siblings:#11 #13
Children:(none)
 #78
You NEED to vote for [info]devil_engine or villagers lose this game.


Time:2007-07-28 03:56:59 GMT
Author:[info]lorriet
Subject:(none)
Link:153059#2385635

Parent:(none)
Siblings:#1 #3 #6 #8 #10 #14 #28 #29 #33 #36 #40 #43 #44 #70 #91 #103 #105 #108 #116 #118 #120
Children:#80
#79
Dear [info]Cambler,

Vote [info]devil_engine.



Time:2007-07-28 03:57:42 GMT
Author:[info]lorriet
Subject:(none)
Link:153059#2385891

Parent:#79
Siblings:(none)
Children:#82 #83
#80
unvote [info]devil_engine
vote [info]cambler


Time:2007-07-28 04:05:08 GMT
Author:[info]daedalus4096
Subject:(none)
Link:153059#2386403

Parent:#77
Siblings:(none)
Children:#84 #94
#81
What logic?

Why would [info]Devil_engine, or anyone else for that matter, noob or not, think that sacrificing himself was a good idea? What would he have to gain from it? One less villager? He could have just as easily left [info]Lorriet for last and won by numerical majority.

Besides, [info]Darkjuan was already under suspicion and multiple votes against him had already been filed. Leaving him to defend himself alone would be tantamount to throwing the game.

Really, though, this debate doesn't really matter. The only person you could possibly convince with this argument is me, and that's not going to happen. [info]Lorriet knows you're lying. [info]Devil_engine knows you're lying. [info]Gorillashaman is in on it. [info]Hungryandhollow knows you're lying, though there's the outside possibility that he'd lie to protect you and secure a lover win.

In fact, the only reason I can think of for you to make this argument would be an attempt to prompt H&H to do just that. I won't be convinced and I don't believe the remaining villagers will either. You've already been exposed.


Time:2007-07-28 04:06:53 GMT
Author:[info]daedalus4096
Subject:(none)
Link:153059#2386659

Parent:#80
Siblings:#83
Children:(none)
 #82
Thank you. :)

I believe this pretty well nukes [info]Cambler's argument from orbit.


Time:2007-07-28 04:06:54 GMT
Author:[info]cambler
Subject:(none)
Link:153059#2386915

Parent:#80
Siblings:#82
Children:#85 #87
#83
Thank you.

You just proved that [info]devil_engine is the wolf.

You may or may not be the sorcerer - no way to tell. But you did exactly as I'd hoped you'd do.

You also identified who the lovers REALLY are to the wolves, so if you do NOT vote for [info]devil_engine to kill the last wolf, you've handed the game to the wolves.

Sorry I had to manipulate you into doing that and forcing you to decide who wins the game.

But there we go.

Your choice now.


Time:2007-07-28 04:08:12 GMT
Author:[info]cambler
Subject:(none)
Link:153059#2387171

Parent:#81
Siblings:#94
Children:#99
#84
Nope, [info]lorriet just did what I hoped she'd do.

We now know who the lovers REALLY are, and that [info]devil_engine is the last wolf (and not a lover). I hate to have manipulated [info]lorriet into doing that, but I didn't see that I had a choice.


Time:2007-07-28 04:12:02 GMT
Author:[info]lorriet
Subject:(none)
Link:153059#2387427

Parent:#83
Siblings:#87
Children:#86 #88 #93
#85
Well, I'd held off from saying that I wasn't a lover, but when you say that lynching me would kill a wolf...you're just wrong and/or lying. By pushing so hard, and accusing me (even if just by 50%) you've pretty aggressively pushed me into a corner. You've switched strategies and targets so many times today, can you blame someone for doubting you?

So, if the village loses, might want to look in the mirror to see the reason, whether or not you're a wolf.

Ooh, this is so dramatic!





Time:2007-07-28 04:18:47 GMT
Author:[info]cambler
Subject:(none)
Link:153059#2387683

Parent:#85
Siblings:#88 #93
Children:#92
#86
You're right.

If you don't vote for [info]devil_engine and we lose, I am, indeed, to blame for pushing the issue. Mea culpa. I see a villager win and want it.


Time:2007-07-28 04:34:17 GMT
Author:[info]daedalus4096
Subject:(none)
Link:153059#2387939

Parent:#83
Siblings:#85
Children:(none)
 #87
How does this prove that [info]Devil_engine is the wolf? Please, be specific.


Time:2007-07-28 04:34:54 GMT
Author:[info]daedalus4096
Subject:(none)
Link:153059#2388195

Parent:#85
Siblings:#86 #93
Children:#89
#88
Would you please do the same vote thing for [info]Gorillashaman? He seems to be implying that you and he are the lovers.


Time:2007-07-28 05:41:35 GMT
Author:[info]gorillashaman
Subject:(none)
Link:153059#2388451

Parent:#88
Siblings:(none)
Children:#90
#89
Why are you bothering?

[info]cambler gets lynched and then [info]lorriet gets eaten and you find out who the lovers are.

At this point it doesn't really matter, we still lose the lovers.



Time:2007-07-28 05:48:19 GMT
Author:[info]daedalus4096
Subject:(none)
Link:153059#2388707

Parent:#89
Siblings:(none)
Children:(none)
 #90
It's not often that somebody in this game can be proven wrong and/or lying without anyone getting lynched or eaten. I suppose it's not strictly necessary, though... I'm just intrigued to see it happen again.


Time:2007-07-28 05:51:04 GMT
Author:[info]gorillashaman
Subject:(none)
Link:153059#2388963

Parent:(none)
Siblings:#1 #3 #6 #8 #10 #14 #28 #29 #33 #36 #40 #43 #44 #70 #79 #103 #105 #108 #116 #118 #120
Children:(none)
 #91
Have we pretty much proven I'm a lover at this point? Because if so, I'm certain to be pushing up daisies this time tomorrow.


Time:2007-07-28 05:53:50 GMT
Author:[info]gorillashaman
Subject:(none)
Link:153059#2389219

Parent:#86
Siblings:(none)
Children:#104
#92
I see problems with both your argument and those of [info]daedalus4096.

Chris, time for you to let go a little bit. Trust me.

unvote [info]devil_engine
vote [info]daedalus4096


Time:2007-07-28 05:57:06 GMT
Author:[info]gorillashaman
Subject:(none)
Link:153059#2389475

Parent:#85
Siblings:#86 #88
Children:#97
#93
Lorrie, meet Chris Ambler. He can be pushy sometimes. =)


Time:2007-07-28 05:58:29 GMT
Author:[info]gorillashaman
Subject:(none)
Link:153059#2389731

Parent:#81
Siblings:#84
Children:(none)
 #94
Why would [info]Devil_engine, or anyone else for that matter, noob or not, think that sacrificing himself was a good idea?

Ummm... didn't our seer pretty much sacrifice himself this game? Seems to have worked out fairly well...


Time:2007-07-28 06:03:06 GMT
Author:[info]gorillashaman
Subject:(none)
Link:153059#2389987

Parent:#26
Siblings:#31
Children:(none)
 #95
I concur, we can win.


Time:2007-07-28 06:04:20 GMT
Author:[info]gorillashaman
Subject:(none)
Link:153059#2390243

Parent:#15
Siblings:#16 #47 #66
Children:(none)
 #96
take it back, leave your vote on [info]daedalus4096


Time:2007-07-28 14:20:01 GMT
Author:[info]lorriet
Subject:(none)
Link:153059#2390499

Parent:#93
Siblings:(none)
Children:#98
#97
Heh...between his pushiness and your comment that I'm "being led around by the nose"...my stubborn streak is riding high.

:)


Time:2007-07-28 15:04:00 GMT
Author:[info]gorillashaman
Subject:(none)
Link:153059#2390755

Parent:#97
Siblings:(none)
Children:#101 #102
#98
There's sort of an unwritten assumption that villagers won't mislead each other. We expect misdirection and subterfuge from the wolves, because they're all furry and, well... evil.

But when we see it from villagers, and we get tricked into doing something we wouldn't have done otherwise, even if it benefits the villagers, we still don't trust the people who mislead us.

Personally I'm not sure I believe [info]Cambler's theory. But I find it more believeable than [info]Daedalus4096's.

[info]Cambler is known for a sort of machiavellian play style in games; he may in fact be a sincere villager, attempting to manipulate other villagers for the win.

Personally I like my theory better; I think [info]Daedalus4096 is the wolf, which is why he's been so gung ho about figuring out who the lovers are.

Regardless of who you believe, or which way you vote, be sure to do it because there's some logic involved, and not simply because you're feeling "stubborn" because of a pushy or manipulative villager.

As an aside, no one has yet mentioned that [info]cambler and [info]hungryandhollow have never voted for each other. Nor have [info]hungryandhollow and [info]devil_engine. It is possible that [info]hungryandhollow, frustrated from past lover's losses really did shoot himself and one other just to prove he could win it. Maybe he figured out that his lover was a wolf, and then came out, hoping his wolfie lover would shield him from getting eaten. This may be why he's so intent on a "lover victory".

Whether you think that theory is good or not is sort of irrelevant to the point I'd like to make which is this; there are still a lot of possibilities, and this is far from wrapped up.


Time:2007-07-28 17:40:58 GMT
Author:[info]devil_engine
Subject:(none)
Link:153059#2391523

Parent:#84
Siblings:(none)
Children:#100
#99
actually sir, I'm neither..


Time:2007-07-28 17:45:34 GMT
Author:[info]cambler
Subject:(none)
Link:153059#2391779

Parent:#99
Siblings:(none)
Children:(none)
 #100
I surely wouldn't expect you to say otherwise, at this point.


Time:2007-07-29 00:03:59 GMT
Author:[info]hungryandhollow
Subject:(none)
Link:153059#2392035

Parent:#98
Siblings:#102
Children:(none)
 #101
After dying so many times to lover suicide, you think I'd make myself a lover and shoot for the win? An interesting idea. I won't say whether or not you're right, but I am surprised that, after I lived so many more nights than I should have, it took people this long to at least realize the possibility. Whether or not it's true, isn't it the most ingenious way to hide myself as a lover? Who would suspect, knowing how many times I'd been screwed by it, that I would put myself in that position again?


Time:2007-07-29 00:06:47 GMT
Author:[info]hungryandhollow
Subject:(none)
Link:153059#2392291

Parent:#98
Siblings:#101
Children:(none)
 #102
And to add one last thing - if anyone in this game can pull off a lover's victory, it's me. I doubt there's a single person who has spent so much time as either Cupid or a Lover considering how it should be done.


Time:2007-07-29 00:09:34 GMT
Author:[info]hungryandhollow
Subject:(none)
Link:153059#2392547

Parent:(none)
Siblings:#1 #3 #6 #8 #10 #14 #28 #29 #33 #36 #40 #43 #44 #70 #79 #91 #105 #108 #116 #118 #120
Children:(none)
 #103
Just to let everyone know, I'm at a family reunion this weekend, so this will probably be my last post until I return home tomorrow night. Apologies that I didn't have time to respond to everything here - there's a lot of interesting theories floating around, but I don't have time to do them all justice. I'll get to them ASAP, and you should all have plenty of time to read them and consider them. For now, my vote stands, although it is definitely subject to change when I get caught up on all this debate.


Time:2007-07-29 02:14:35 GMT
Author:[info]cambler
Subject:(none)
Link:153059#2392803

Parent:#92
Siblings:(none)
Children:(none)
 #104
unvote [info]devil_engine
vote [info]daedalus4096


Time:2007-07-29 05:16:50 GMT
Author:[info]hungryandhollow
Subject:(none)
Link:153059#2393315

Parent:(none)
Siblings:#1 #3 #6 #8 #10 #14 #28 #29 #33 #36 #40 #43 #44 #70 #79 #91 #103 #108 #116 #118 #120
Children:#106
#105
Well, got a few minutes, read up on everything. Like I said before, a lot of interesting theories and so forth, but really it all seems to come down to the fact that we've got a split decision, and right now I intend to keep my vote for Daedalus. Any particular things I should address?


Time:2007-07-29 07:20:17 GMT
Author:[info]daedalus4096
Subject:(none)
Link:153059#2393827

Parent:#105
Siblings:(none)
Children:#107
#106
I see you've made your choice. Congratulations on engineering your lovers' victory. Does that mean we can end this charade, or do you intend to make us continue waiting for [info]Cambler to finish us?


Time:2007-07-29 16:42:21 GMT
Author:[info]hungryandhollow
Subject:(none)
Link:153059#2394083

Parent:#106
Siblings:(none)
Children:#109 #110
#107
Well, if everyone would like to put their cards on the table and end this early, i'm fine with that. And thank you.


Time:2007-07-29 16:45:10 GMT
Author:[info]lorriet
Subject:(none)
Link:153059#2394339

Parent:(none)
Siblings:#1 #3 #6 #8 #10 #14 #28 #29 #33 #36 #40 #43 #44 #70 #79 #91 #103 #105 #116 #118 #120
Children:(none)
 #108
[info]Gorillashaman wrote: Regardless of who you believe, or which way you vote, be sure to do it because there's some logic involved, and not simply because you're feeling "stubborn" because of a pushy or manipulative villager.


I absolutely would change my vote if I thought I was wrong. I'm stubborn, not stupid. And, I value winning over being right (by a narrow margin, mind you :P).

The theory that daedalus spelled out was one that had been forming in my mind (see my post right before his first long one). The identity of both lovers was something I'd suspected for a few days (though the Lover's Victory didn't enter my mind until later.). After day 3 or so, I surmised you were one of the lovers, based on some comments that you had made.

Anyway, the fur will fly as it will. At this point, there seems no way for a village victory; the only options are wolf or lover victory.

Me? I'm packing a gun with silver bullets tonight, and maybe I'll get lucky.


Time:2007-07-29 18:38:31 GMT
Author:[info]gorillashaman
Subject:(none)
Link:153059#2394595

Parent:#107
Siblings:#110
Children:#113
#109
If there is a wolf lover, I think the key point is whether or not you can be trusted; If you change your mind, then the wolf lover victory is shot and the villagers will win for sure.

Given that, I think it would be ill advised for a wolf lover to come out at this point in time. In fact, it would behoove this hypothetical wolf lover to carry on as if he were a villager, at least until tomorrow.


Time:2007-07-29 22:15:45 GMT
Author:[info]daedalus4096
Subject:(none)
Link:153059#2394851

Parent:#107
Siblings:#109
Children:#111 #112
#110
Hear that? You're tossing yourself on the sacrificial altar and they don't even trust you. There's still a chance to do the right thing. And, y'know, actually get credit for the win. :)


Time:2007-07-29 22:47:40 GMT
Author:[info]gorillashaman
Subject:(none)
Link:153059#2395107

Parent:#110
Siblings:#112
Children:#114
#111
No. I think you're going to kick yourself come tomorrow when you realize [info]cambler is not a wolf, you've managed to talk the rest of the villagers into a 1W 2V scenario, and the win totally depends on whether or not one of the villagers left standing is a SORCERER.

Unless of course YOU'RE on team furry.


Time:2007-07-29 23:19:53 GMT
Author:[info]hungryandhollow
Subject:(none)
Link:153059#2395619

Parent:#110
Siblings:#111
Children:(none)
 #112
I wouldn't trust me either. Wouldn't it be the ultimate backstab? Get someone to reveal himself as a wolf, then lead the other 3 in a charge against the Lovers for villager victory? Since we don't know who the sorcerer is, there's no way of knowing whether or not the wolf would have enough support to hold us off. However, I am completely serious - although I can't prove it, we'll just have to wait and you'll see.


Time:2007-07-29 23:21:36 GMT
Author:[info]hungryandhollow
Subject:(none)
Link:153059#2395875

Parent:#109
Siblings:(none)
Children:(none)
 #113
Any hypothetical wolf lover is perfectly welcome to do so, it makes no difference to me.


Time:2007-07-30 02:55:28 GMT
Author:[info]cambler
Subject:(none)
Link:153059#2396387

Parent:#111
Siblings:(none)
Children:#115
#114
I'm beginning to think that, myself, at this point. Though the evidence is stronger for someone else, it is based on my interpretation of how they're playing, not on solid logic.

So yeah...



Time:2007-07-30 06:53:05 GMT
Author:[info]hungryandhollow
Subject:(none)
Link:153059#2396643

Parent:#114
Siblings:(none)
Children:(none)
 #115
However it turns out, this has to be the most interesting end-game I've ever seen.


Time:2007-07-30 14:35:43 GMT
Author:[info]lorriet
Subject:(none)
Link:153059#2396899

Parent:(none)
Siblings:#1 #3 #6 #8 #10 #14 #28 #29 #33 #36 #40 #43 #44 #70 #79 #91 #103 #105 #108 #118 #120
Children:#117 #119
#116
My work internet is sometimes patchy, so I'm going to unvote [info]cambler and I [info]abstain for right now, since everyone's positions seem intractable, and there's no sense prolonging the inevitable by forcing a runoff vote.

Now, if that's not the case, and someone changes their minds or something, I'll revisit my abstention.



Time:2007-07-30 14:36:28 GMT
Author:[info]lorriet
Subject:(none)
Link:153059#2397155

Parent:#116
Siblings:#119
Children:(none)
 #117
Sorry for the mad bolding up there. :P


Time:2007-07-30 15:31:55 GMT
Author:[info]hungryandhollow
Subject:(none)
Link:153059#2397411

Parent:(none)
Siblings:#1 #3 #6 #8 #10 #14 #28 #29 #33 #36 #40 #43 #44 #70 #79 #91 #103 #105 #108 #116 #120
Children:(none)
 #118
i'm headed out to Tulare so I won't be able to post before 11. Looking forward to seeing how things work out today.


Time:2007-07-30 16:46:02 GMT
Author:[info]daedalus4096
Subject:(none)
Link:153059#2397667

Parent:#116
Siblings:#117
Children:#121
#119
I wish you wouldn't, but with H&H away from his computer before the vote, I don't think that's going to happen.


Time:2007-07-30 16:48:12 GMT
Author:[info]daedalus4096
Subject:(none)
Link:153059#2397923

Parent:(none)
Siblings:#1 #3 #6 #8 #10 #14 #28 #29 #33 #36 #40 #43 #44 #70 #79 #91 #103 #105 #108 #116 #118
Children:(none)
 #120
So it would seem that all is lost, then. Oh well, at least I get to die quick and clean. Better than being eaten, I suppose...


Time:2007-07-30 16:48:37 GMT
Author:[info]lorriet
Subject:(none)
Link:153059#2398179

Parent:#119
Siblings:(none)
Children:#122
#121
Well, if dialog continues, and it looks like there'd be a chance of convincing someone, I wouldn't [info]abstain. But, I really don't see that as a possibility. Even if H&H was here, I just get this image of him gleefully rubbing his hands together at the way things are going. He's not going to change his vote.

So, we deadlock at 3/3, there is a runoff vote, and then what happens? If you can give me a scenario where we wouldn't end up tied, and risk losing two villagers, I'll consider changing my vote.


Time:2007-07-30 17:24:09 GMT
Author:[info]cambler
Subject:(none)
Link:153059#2398435

Parent:#121
Siblings:(none)
Children:#123
#122
Consider the current status:

3 against [info]daedalus4096: [info]cambler [info]gorillashaman [info]hungryandhollow
2 against [info]cambler: [info]devil_engine [info]daedalus4096
1 against [info]abstain: [info]lorriet

I submit that of the two who voted for me, one is a wolf and the other is the sorcerer. It's the only thing that makes sense.


Time:2007-07-30 17:30:10 GMT
Author:[info]lorriet
Subject:(none)
Link:153059#2398691

Parent:#122
Siblings:(none)
Children:#124
#123
Explain, if you can, why you switched your vote to [info]devil_engine yesterday? You said something cryptic, and it didn't make sense.

He's a noob, but I don't think that he would have deliberately put himself in the line of fire for lynching by voting for himself if he were a wolf.

Then, you switched back to daedalus...why?


Time:2007-07-30 17:33:19 GMT
Author:[info]cambler
Subject:(none)
Link:153059#2398947

Parent:#123
Siblings:(none)
Children:#125
#124
It's a 50/50 issue right now, since I (sorry) got you to confirm that you're not a lover. And the way that d_e and daed are playing it, one or the other has to be the alternative. There's just no other permutation that works.


Time:2007-07-30 17:35:25 GMT
Author:[info]lorriet
Subject:(none)
Link:153059#2399203

Parent:#124
Siblings:(none)
Children:#126
#125
But you said "aha, this all makes sense now"...and then refused to back it up with anything when I asked. So, what made sense to you when you changed your vote away from daed to d_e?


Time:2007-07-30 17:38:51 GMT
Author:[info]cambler
Subject:(none)
Link:153059#2399459

Parent:#125
Siblings:(none)
Children:#127
#126
Who was voting for whom. I hadn't thought to recognize that d_e and daed were voting in lockstep. I suspect the wolf has realized who the sorcerer is.


Time:2007-07-30 17:59:38 GMT
Author:[info]devil_engine
Subject:(none)
Link:153059#2399971

Parent:#126
Siblings:(none)
Children:(none)
 #127
I didn't even realize that was going on until you mentioned it just now.

Basically the only reason I voted like I did was he was the only one that came out and just said the logic for his voting, instead of beating around the bush and hoping that we might catch it.

Basically his argument was the most compelling and complete to me.

I'm sure I'll get the hang of this game the more I play.


Vote History
[info]gorillashamanvote[info]daedalus40962007-07-27 18:37:08 GMT#13
[info]hungryandhollowvote[info]daedalus40962007-07-27 18:42:08 GMT#15
[info]camblervote[info]daedalus40962007-07-27 18:48:16 GMT#16
[info]camblerunvote[info]daedalus40962007-07-27 21:20:36 GMT#33
[info]camblervote[info]devil_engine2007-07-27 21:20:36 GMT#33
[info]devil_enginevote[info]daedalus40962007-07-27 22:05:04 GMT#36
[info]daedalus4096vote[info]lorriet2007-07-27 23:09:02 GMT#44
[info]daedalus4096unvote[info]lorriet2007-07-27 23:09:02 GMT#44
[info]daedalus4096vote[info]abstain2007-07-27 23:09:02 GMT#44
[info]daedalus4096vote[info]cambler2007-07-27 23:09:28 GMT#45
[info]lorrietvote[info]cambler2007-07-27 23:39:47 GMT#48
[info]devil_engineunvote[info]daedalus40962007-07-28 01:01:54 GMT#57
[info]devil_enginevote[info]cambler2007-07-28 01:01:54 GMT#57
[info]gorillashamanunvote[info]daedalus40962007-07-28 02:46:18 GMT#65
[info]gorillashamanvote[info]devil_engine2007-07-28 02:46:18 GMT#65
[info]lorrietvote[info]devil_engine2007-07-28 03:56:59 GMT#79
[info]lorrietunvote[info]devil_engine2007-07-28 03:57:42 GMT#80
[info]lorrietvote[info]cambler2007-07-28 03:57:42 GMT#80
[info]gorillashamanunvote[info]devil_engine2007-07-28 05:53:50 GMT#92
[info]gorillashamanvote[info]daedalus40962007-07-28 05:53:50 GMT#92
[info]camblerunvote[info]devil_engine2007-07-29 02:14:35 GMT#104
[info]camblervote[info]daedalus40962007-07-29 02:14:35 GMT#104
[info]lorrietunvote[info]cambler2007-07-30 14:35:43 GMT#116
[info]lorrietvote[info]abstain2007-07-30 14:35:43 GMT#116
Vote Summary
3 against[info]daedalus4096:[info]cambler [info]gorillashaman [info]hungryandhollow
2 against[info]cambler:[info]devil_engine [info]daedalus4096
1 against[info]abstain:[info]lorriet
Posted but no vote:[info]parzanese
Posting Statistics
posts by[info]daedalus4096:(28)#1 #3 #4 #7 #23 #28 #44 #45 #46 #47 #49 #52 #59 #60 #63 #64 #72 #73 #76 #81 #82 #87 #88 #90 #106 #110 #119 #120
posts by[info]cambler:(28)#12 #16 #17 #20 #22 #31 #33 #35 #39 #42 #56 #68 #69 #70 #71 #74 #75 #77 #78 #83 #84 #86 #100 #104 #114 #122 #124 #126
posts by[info]lorriet:(26)#2 #5 #10 #11 #18 #19 #21 #25 #29 #34 #37 #40 #41 #43 #48 #62 #79 #80 #85 #97 #108 #116 #117 #121 #123 #125
posts by[info]gorillashaman:(21)#13 #50 #51 #53 #54 #55 #58 #61 #65 #66 #67 #89 #91 #92 #93 #94 #95 #96 #98 #109 #111
posts by[info]hungryandhollow:(17)#6 #8 #14 #15 #26 #27 #30 #32 #101 #102 #103 #105 #107 #112 #113 #115 #118
posts by[info]devil_engine:(5)#36 #38 #57 #99 #127
posts by[info]parzanese:(2)#9 #24
Comment Tree Summary