lupusintabula - Day 5

Link:29416 Sat Jan 23 00:16:45 2010

A blank resigned look covers the Musketeer's face as the Sheepherd Daedalus touches him on the shoulder. "We've decided you're our best bet to catch a Werewolf tonight." [info]Gpeefalt nods slowly, knowing this will be his last hour.

*************************************

The familiar howls last night were mixed with a less familiar "Argh!" and "Avast ye, hell beasts!" When dawn comes, the pirate vessel anchored in the Harbor is ransacked. The Pirate [info]Stride is no where to be seen. One chest remains locked and in tact in the captain's quarters, hidden under the bed. You manage to get it open and it contains the Last Wills of all that have died, including that of the Pirate.

[info]gpeefalt: I told you I didn't do it...
[info]stride: I am the NOTARY.
[info]gnatdbug: I am the seer. if I was lynched Nah nah nah!
[info]amphitrite27: Villager, suspicious of the smart ones, [info]giantlaser, [info]parzanese, etc
[info]parzanese: Here may be found the last words of Joseph of Millers Hollow. He who is valiant and pure of spirit may find the wolf weres in the House of Aaauuuggghhh…
[info]the1mouse: I wasn't a wolf. I really did just guess. I said fuckers before - but think people might not realize that it's part of my sense of humor. Fuckers. :p
[info]pianorain: [info]gnatdbug is a villager
[info]evilben is a villager

Summary: [info]gpeefalt and [info]stride are DEAD. No more Last Wills will be used. Next lynching will occur at 11AM Monday.
Time:2005-10-21 19:55:50 GMT
Author:[info]daedalus4096
Subject:(none)
Link:29416#498920

Parent:(none)
Siblings:#2 #3 #5 #6 #10 #12 #18 #19 #20 #23 #24 #25
Children:#4
#1
There's eight of us left, with an unknown number of wolves. Worst case: this is our last day. For now, I'm going to stick with my plan from yesterday and vote [info]Evilben.


Time:2005-10-21 20:36:55 GMT
Author:[info]chessiekitty
Subject:(none)
Link:29416#500712

Parent:(none)
Siblings:#1 #3 #5 #6 #10 #12 #18 #19 #20 #23 #24 #25
Children:(none)
 #2
I am utterly at a loss. I have no idea who to lynch. I guess I'll go back through the last few days and reread all the entries. Maybe something will pop out at me. These blind games are difficult.


Time:2005-10-21 20:40:45 GMT
Author:[info]hungryandhollow
Subject:(none)
Link:29416#500968

Parent:(none)
Siblings:#1 #2 #5 #6 #10 #12 #18 #19 #20 #23 #24 #25
Children:#7
#3
Question for [info]infohazard: I was just reading yesterday's posts, and your statistics have once again put me at the highest likelihood for wolfdom. As I am a villager, and as I believe this happened last game (when I was also a villager), I believe your statistics may be unreliable. No offense, I'm just saying now that we know who the wolves were from last round, we should check the statistics you posted then against what turned out to be a fact, and see how it lines up.
Also, your statistics seem to put you at the least likely person to be lynched. Perhaps they may be biased?


Time:2005-10-21 20:55:54 GMT
Author:[info]gorillashaman
Subject:(none)
Link:29416#501224

Parent:#1
Siblings:(none)
Children:(none)
 #4
[info]stride was an obvious target. We have to assume the bodyguard is dead.

[info]stride was the NOTARY. This is now a solid fact.

[info]parzanese was most likely the WITCH.

[info]pianorain was most likely a WOLF. Corollary; this is most likely NOT our last day.

If the SEER is still alive, they should have enough information to clear some living villagers, or better yet, implicate one of the remaining wolves, and give us some clues how to vote. If the SEER does not step forward today, I'm going to assume [info]gnatdbug was telling the truth, which kind of sucks.

The PRIEST is becoming less powerful. If today really is our last day, the PRIEST might as well come out; it'll give us one less person to vote for (unless of course TWO priests come out, which would be just dumb on the part of whatever wolf was faking it).

Anyone got any more ideas? Have I missed anything?

For now I'll vote [info]evilben, although this may change if anybody comes out.

Also, I'm hanging out with my daughter this weekend, so I'll most likely not post again until Sunday.


Time:2005-10-21 20:58:55 GMT
Author:[info]giantlaser
Subject:(none)
Link:29416#501480

Parent:(none)
Siblings:#1 #2 #3 #6 #10 #12 #18 #19 #20 #23 #24 #25
Children:(none)
 #5
Dammit, we're dropping like flies. These remain:

[info]chessiekitty
[info]daedalus4096
[info]evilben
[info]giantlaser
[info]hungryandhollow
[info]infohazard
[info]lorriet
[info]maniakes

Of which I believe we have at least two wolves. I think the evidence still points most to [info]pianorain having been a wolf, which implicates [info]evilben and possibly even [info]gnatdbug, post-mortem. Although if the purpose of his last will was to trick us, I doubt he'd be stupid enough to name both wolves.

vote [info]evilben


Time:2005-10-21 21:02:41 GMT
Author:[info]maniakes
Subject:(none)
Link:29416#501736

Parent:(none)
Siblings:#1 #2 #3 #5 #10 #12 #18 #19 #20 #23 #24 #25
Children:#8
#6
Much as I hate to join the bandwagon, [info]evilben is at the top of my suspects list.

vote [info]evilben


Time:2005-10-21 22:01:59 GMT
Author:[info]gorillashaman
Subject:(none)
Link:29416#501992

Parent:#3
Siblings:(none)
Children:#9
#7
If you know you're a not a wolf, then you can go over to http://cuddlepuddle.org/~adam/werecalc/index2.cgi and plug that in as an assumption, and see what you get as outputs. In fact I recommend you do (reasons below).

Like anything else having to do with computers, garbage in, garbage out. It could be that one of my assumptions was incorrect, blowing the whole deal.

I'm sure I could pick a set of assumptions that put me at the top, or at the bottom, or in the middle. So yeah, if you've got a different idea about what assumptions are reasonable, go ahead and plug them in. Those assumptions felt reasonable to me. If you have better assumptions I'd love to hear them.

The tool itself is definately NOT biased. The source code can be found here: http://cuddlepuddle.org/~adam/werecalc/source.html

It simply operates on the assumptions fed into it.

You were at the top for those living. I cut out the dead folks; [info]pianorain was listed highest, at 75%, followed by [info]gnatdbug at 35%.

As for being at the top of the living, 24% is still pretty low. It doesn't mean you ARE the wolf, it just means that 24% of the combinations matching the claims contained you as a wolf. Notice I had a 10%. That doesn't clear me at all. It just means that 10% of the combinations matching the claims contained me as a wolf. It is CERTAINLY possible that I COULD BE a wolf, even if you believe the assumptions I plugged in were correct assumptions.

Only correct assumptions AND a 0% rating would clear me for sure.

Actually, since you were at the top, you're in the best position to run the tool with your role filled in, since that will eliminate the largest number of combinations from the calculation. Heck, I'll go di it right now, assuming you're a villager...

[info]amphitrite27 0%
[info]chessiekitty 19%
[info]daedalus4096 19%
[info]evilben 22%
[info]flipperchaz 24%
[info]giantlaser 24%
[info]gnatdbug 33%
[info]gpeefalt 26%
[info]hungryandhollow 0%
[info]infohazard 11%
[info]lorriet 13%
[info]maniakes 15%
[info]parzanese 0%
[info]pianorain 78%
[info]stride 0%
[info]the1mouse 17%

So, IF you're really a villager, AND you accept all the claims from that previous post, THEN it is most likely that [info]giantlaser is a wolf. But it's not that much more likely than [info]evilben, or [info]daedalus4096, or [info]chessiekitty.

And really, if I look at the 8 remaining folks, and pick four at random, and say "one of them is a wolf", then odds are good I'd be right.


Time:2005-10-21 22:14:52 GMT
Author:[info]giantlaser
Subject:(none)
Link:29416#502248

Parent:#6
Siblings:(none)
Children:(none)
 #8
It's funny that we say it's bad to join the bandwagon. Apparently none of you people understand just how lynch mobs work. :)


Time:2005-10-21 22:41:02 GMT
Author:[info]hungryandhollow
Subject:(none)
Link:29416#502760

Parent:#7
Siblings:(none)
Children:(none)
 #9
i agree the tool isn't biased, i meant perhaps your assumptions. On the other hand, since theoretically you know you're a villager, coming out at the lowest does make sense.
My overall point is that, if I am correct in remembering that we had this tool last game, we can go back and check on its success rate and see what assumptions work well and what assumptions do not.


Time:2005-10-21 22:41:46 GMT
Author:[info]hungryandhollow
Subject:(none)
Link:29416#503272

Parent:(none)
Siblings:#1 #2 #3 #5 #6 #12 #18 #19 #20 #23 #24 #25
Children:#11
#10
i'll follow the tool today and vote [info]giantlaser.


Time:2005-10-22 06:49:19 GMT
Author:[info]giantlaser
Subject:(none)
Link:29416#505064

Parent:#10
Siblings:(none)
Children:#22
#11
Now I hate that tool.

[info]evilben is clearly the most suspect at this point. Perhaps you are voting for me because you don't want to follow the crowd, but it could also mean you are a wolf and covering for [info]evilben. Which moves you to #2 on my suspect list.


Time:2005-10-22 08:41:44 GMT
Author:[info]evilben
Subject:(none)
Link:29416#505320

Parent:(none)
Siblings:#1 #2 #3 #5 #6 #10 #18 #19 #20 #23 #24 #25
Children:#13 #14 #17
#12
I am a VILLAGER! Your algorithm thing is fucking broken. I truely hope it NEVER shows up in another of these games. I say it must be either daedalus or [info]maniakes. Daedalus alwasys vote [info]stride and now she's gone. [info]Maniakes seems really interested in killing me. As a wolf, he'd know I'm a villager and would use suspicion to get one step closer to a wolf win. Keep in mind, he was a winning werewolf once. Strangely enough, I don't suspect [info]infohazard. I just think he is overly impressed with his little programming toy.


Time:2005-10-22 13:16:28 GMT
Author:[info]giantlaser
Subject:(none)
Link:29416#505832

Parent:#12
Siblings:#14 #17
Children:#15
#13
Then why did [info]pianorain implicate you? Huh, wolf?


Time:2005-10-22 17:31:13 GMT
Author:[info]chessiekitty
Subject:(none)
Link:29416#506088

Parent:#12
Siblings:#13 #17
Children:#16
#14
[info]maniakes did that with me when he was a wolf. I figured he was a wolf just because he was so vehement abouit me being a wolf.


Time:2005-10-22 17:51:51 GMT
Author:[info]evilben
Subject:(none)
Link:29416#506344

Parent:#13
Siblings:(none)
Children:(none)
 #15
What crack are you smoking? [info]Pianorain's statement calls me a VILLAGER!


Time:2005-10-22 17:53:36 GMT
Author:[info]evilben
Subject:(none)
Link:29416#506600

Parent:#14
Siblings:(none)
Children:(none)
 #16
Exactly.

VOTE [info]MANIAKES


Time:2005-10-22 18:01:23 GMT
Author:[info]maniakes
Subject:(none)
Link:29416#506856

Parent:#12
Siblings:#13 #14
Children:(none)
 #17
I've been voting for you because no new information has been showing up that either exonorates you or implicates someone else. Blind games are tough.


Time:2005-10-24 05:18:23 GMT
Author:[info]chessiekitty
Subject:(none)
Link:29416#507368

Parent:(none)
Siblings:#1 #2 #3 #5 #6 #10 #12 #19 #20 #23 #24 #25
Children:(none)
 #18
Going with my gut, for whatever that's worth. vote [info]maniakes


Time:2005-10-24 13:23:03 GMT
Author:[info]lorriet
Subject:(none)
Link:29416#507880

Parent:(none)
Siblings:#1 #2 #3 #5 #6 #10 #12 #18 #20 #23 #24 #25
Children:(none)
 #19
vote [info]abstain

I'll try to check in before votes are finished and change this...


Time:2005-10-24 14:40:19 GMT
Author:[info]chessiekitty
Subject:(none)
Link:29416#508392

Parent:(none)
Siblings:#1 #2 #3 #5 #6 #10 #12 #18 #19 #23 #24 #25
Children:#21
#20
OK- I had a thought while I was trying to sleep. It was such a strong thought that I felt that I had to get my butt out of bed, risking waking a sleeping baby to post this.

We all seem to believe that [info]pianorain was lying. He must be a wolf. However, no one else has come forward to say they are the seer, and no one else's will says they're the seer except for [info]gnatdbug, which I think was just his way of being funny.

So let's just try a new line of thinking. What if [info]pianorain really was the seer. Perhaps we already lynched one wolf that he spied on, that could be why he only had two claims for us. Perhaps he didn't waste saying that we already lynched one. Or maybe he didn't check in soon enough to check night zero. Who knows. If he was the real seer, then [info]gnatdbug and [info]evilben are really villagers.

If that is the case, then the quickest, strongest arguments for [info]pianorain being a wolf are probably wolves themselves. Following that theory I unvote [info]maniakes and vote [info]daedalus4096

And [info]infohazard would probably be next after daedalus.


Time:2005-10-24 14:42:50 GMT
Author:[info]chessiekitty
Subject:(none)
Link:29416#508904

Parent:#20
Siblings:(none)
Children:(none)
 #21
Having said that, I'm back off to bed. I probably won't be waking up again until after the lynching.


Time:2005-10-24 17:05:05 GMT
Author:[info]hungryandhollow
Subject:(none)
Link:29416#509416

Parent:#11
Siblings:(none)
Children:(none)
 #22
I am admitedly prejudiced against voting for [info]evilben, because every game people lynch him based on little to no evidence, often seemingly on the theory that he's due to be a wolf. I don't believe the [info]Pianorain-is-a-wolf theory because I think he's too crafty for such a ham-handed trick, which means I don't believe your evidence that points towards him.


Time:2005-10-24 17:06:00 GMT
Author:[info]hungryandhollow
Subject:(none)
Link:29416#509672

Parent:(none)
Siblings:#1 #2 #3 #5 #6 #10 #12 #18 #19 #20 #24 #25
Children:(none)
 #23
My vote looks like it won't change anything, so I'll keep it. If people start posting within the next hour, I'll change it - just drop me a comment if you have anything new to say and I'll come read this post again.


Time:2005-10-24 17:20:25 GMT
Author:[info]evilben
Subject:Not a F*cking Wolf!
Link:29416#510184

Parent:(none)
Siblings:#1 #2 #3 #5 #6 #10 #12 #18 #19 #20 #23 #25
Children:(none)
 #24
You people are being stupid. You're letting the wolves play you and lynch me on little/no evidence. The [info]Pianorain is a wolf theory is just retarded. Really fucking retarded. As specially considering [info]Pianorain was on my Kill List the whole goddamn time. I hope the damn wolves win.


Time:2005-10-24 17:58:51 GMT
Author:[info]lupusintabula
Subject:(none)
Link:29416#510696

Parent:(none)
Siblings:#1 #2 #3 #5 #6 #10 #12 #18 #19 #20 #23 #24
Children:(none)
 #25
Post close.


Vote History
[info]daedalus4096vote[info]evilben2005-10-21 19:55:50 GMT#1
[info]gorillashamanvote[info]evilben2005-10-21 20:55:54 GMT#4
[info]giantlaservote[info]evilben2005-10-21 20:58:55 GMT#5
[info]maniakesvote[info]evilben2005-10-21 21:02:41 GMT#6
[info]hungryandhollowvote[info]giantlaser2005-10-21 22:41:46 GMT#10
[info]evilbenvote[info]stride2005-10-22 08:41:44 GMT#12
[info]evilbenvote[info]maniakes2005-10-22 17:53:36 GMT#16
[info]chessiekittyvote[info]maniakes2005-10-24 05:18:23 GMT#18
[info]lorrietvote[info]abstain2005-10-24 13:23:03 GMT#19
[info]chessiekittyunvote[info]maniakes2005-10-24 14:40:19 GMT#20
[info]chessiekittyvote[info]daedalus40962005-10-24 14:40:19 GMT#20
Vote Summary
4 against[info]evilben:[info]daedalus4096 [info]maniakes [info]gorillashaman [info]giantlaser
1 against[info]daedalus4096:[info]chessiekitty
1 against[info]maniakes:[info]evilben
1 against[info]abstain:[info]lorriet
1 against[info]giantlaser:[info]hungryandhollow
Posted but no vote:[info]lupusintabula
Posting Statistics
posts by[info]chessiekitty:(5)#2 #14 #18 #20 #21
posts by[info]hungryandhollow:(5)#3 #9 #10 #22 #23
posts by[info]evilben:(4)#12 #15 #16 #24
posts by[info]giantlaser:(4)#5 #8 #11 #13
posts by[info]maniakes:(2)#6 #17
posts by[info]gorillashaman:(2)#4 #7
posts by[info]lorriet:(1)#19
posts by[info]lupusintabula:(1)#25
posts by[info]daedalus4096:(1)#1
Comment Tree Summary