millershollow - Day 8 |
| Link:175855 Sat Jan 23 00:18:29 2010 |
| Time:2009-09-30 18:30:43 GMT Author: Subject:AMAZING! Link:175855#2892271 | Parent:(none) Siblings:#3 #6 #7 #8 #10 #12 #13 #18 #23 #36 #37 #46 #47 #57 #66 #71 #80 #84 #93 #94 #96 #104 #109 #110 Children:#2 |
#1 | |
| Talk about snatching victory from the jaws of defeat!!!! | |||
| Time:2009-09-30 18:34:06 GMT Author: Subject:Re: AMAZING! Link:175855#2892527 | Parent:#1 Siblings:(none) Children:#4 #5 |
#2 | |
| so now they just have to worry about the killer... | |||
| Time:2009-09-30 18:35:33 GMT Author: Subject:(none) Link:175855#2892783 | Parent:(none) Siblings:#1 #6 #7 #8 #10 #12 #13 #18 #23 #36 #37 #46 #47 #57 #66 #71 #80 #84 #93 #94 #96 #104 #109 #110 Children:#17 |
#3 | |
| Interrestink .... I would love to be able to just let the serial killer go on thier merry way at this point with a nice cash thank you attatched ! Hmmmm... or this IS Miller's Hollow - maybe if we promised to bring in new vilagers for the killer each week ? Anyway - So now we have a race to find the killer ... | |||
| Time:2009-09-30 18:35:40 GMT Author: Subject:Re: AMAZING! Link:175855#2893039 | Parent:#2 Siblings:#5 Children:#21 |
#4 | |
| Hey dead! SHUT UP! | |||
| Time:2009-09-30 18:35:57 GMT Author: Subject:Re: AMAZING! Link:175855#2893551 | Parent:#2 Siblings:#4 Children:(none) |
#5 | |
| Gaaaah !!!! WOLFZOMBIE !!!!! RUN ~!!!!!!!!! | |||
| Time:2009-09-30 18:40:54 GMT Author: Subject:The List .... Link:175855#2894575 | Parent:(none) Siblings:#1 #3 #7 #8 #10 #12 #13 #18 #23 #36 #37 #46 #47 #57 #66 #71 #80 #84 #93 #94 #96 #104 #109 #110 Children:#11 #14 |
#6 | |
| The LIVING (8): The Specials Remaining: Witch Serial Killer Afflicted (possibly) The DEAD : The RULES: http:// Miller's hollow index: http://ma8p.com/~adam/ljgames/ | |||
| Time:2009-09-30 18:41:51 GMT Author: Subject:(none) Link:175855#2894831 | Parent:(none) Siblings:#1 #3 #6 #8 #10 #12 #13 #18 #23 #36 #37 #46 #47 #57 #66 #71 #80 #84 #93 #94 #96 #104 #109 #110 Children:(none) |
#7 | |
| Damn, that Serial Killer is good. | |||
| Time:2009-09-30 18:45:15 GMT Author: Subject:(none) Link:175855#2895599 | Parent:(none) Siblings:#1 #3 #6 #7 #10 #12 #13 #18 #23 #36 #37 #46 #47 #57 #66 #71 #80 #84 #93 #94 #96 #104 #109 #110 Children:#9 |
#8 | |
| what. the. fuck. | |||
| Time:2009-09-30 18:47:23 GMT Author: Subject:(none) Link:175855#2896111 | Parent:#8 Siblings:(none) Children:#24 |
#9 | |
| ohhhh, ok. did we combine the lynching and the night-deaths all into one post? I was really confused for a minute. | |||
| Time:2009-09-30 18:47:49 GMT Author: Subject:(none) Link:175855#2896367 | Parent:(none) Siblings:#1 #3 #6 #7 #8 #12 #13 #18 #23 #36 #37 #46 #47 #57 #66 #71 #80 #84 #93 #94 #96 #104 #109 #110 Children:(none) |
#10 | |
| Now you see? I voted her early...and I voted her often! :-P Is it fortunate or no that this proves the animal name == wolf theory void? | |||
| Time:2009-09-30 18:49:12 GMT Author: Subject:Re: The List .... Link:175855#2896879 | Parent:#6 Siblings:#14 Children:#15 #22 #45 |
#11 | |
| So ... unless the Killer gets realy tricky - I'm dead tonight. It doesn't hurt anything to tell you all that the previous evening when there was no wolf kill I SAVED Rusty with my potion. I FULLY figured Rusty would have protected himself last night, but ... I have my poison, and now is the time to use it (assuming it will go off before the killer gets me ???). UNFORTUNATELY - anyone could be the killer at this point, even snoopy. The afflicted no longer matters. Just me and the killer. Time for the accusations to fly fast and furious, but PLEASE include reasoning if there is any. We have a DISMAL 14% chance to guess the killer for lynching. Tomorrow, there will be only 6 left alive. If one is still the killer there will have only a 16% chance of IDing the killer. the next day will see the sun shine on only 4 townspeople ... at least then ther will be a 25% chance ... course it will be the LAST chance ... | |||
| Time:2009-09-30 18:49:15 GMT Author: Subject:Stride was evil! Link:175855#2897135 | Parent:(none) Siblings:#1 #3 #6 #7 #8 #10 #13 #18 #23 #36 #37 #46 #47 #57 #66 #71 #80 #84 #93 #94 #96 #104 #109 #110 Children:#25 |
#12 | |
| **** Would love the serial killer to kill the damn | |||
| Time:2009-09-30 18:49:27 GMT Author: Subject:(none) Link:175855#2897391 | Parent:(none) Siblings:#1 #3 #6 #7 #8 #10 #12 #18 #23 #36 #37 #46 #47 #57 #66 #71 #80 #84 #93 #94 #96 #104 #109 #110 Children:#16 #91 |
#13 | |
| NOW is a good time for the witch to let us know if they saved someone the night before last. The witch's potion doesn't save someone from the Cerial Killer anyways and we NEED to know if the afflicted turned. the difference between one wolf and zero wolves is HUGE. I personally don't want to wait until the night phase to see if the wolf kills someone to find out. As far as finding the killer goes, only one of us has an alibi. Werewolves of Miller's Hollow has just turned into Clue. | |||
| Time:2009-09-30 18:50:37 GMT Author: Subject:Re: The List .... Link:175855#2898159 | Parent:#6 Siblings:#11 Children:#19 |
#14 | |
| Now that we are devoid known wolves...did you use yer potion the other night? Cause if not there is still a wolf... | |||
| Time:2009-09-30 18:51:32 GMT Author: Subject:Re: The List .... Link:175855#2898671 | Parent:#11 Siblings:#22 #45 Children:(none) |
#15 | |
| Oh, there we go. The good part is this tells us the Afflicted was never activated. | |||
| Time:2009-09-30 18:52:27 GMT Author: Subject:(none) Link:175855#2898927 | Parent:#13 Siblings:#91 Children:#20 |
#16 | |
| The movie or the boardgame? Cause if its the movie we are all guilty... | |||
| Time:2009-09-30 18:53:04 GMT Author: Subject:(none) Link:175855#2899439 | Parent:#3 Siblings:(none) Children:(none) |
#17 | |
| I would love to be able to just let the serial killer go on thier merry way at this point with a nice cash thank you attatched ! Haha, definitely. Wolf killer extraordinaire! I'm not sure the village stands a chance now that s/he's not on our side, though. | |||
| Time:2009-09-30 18:53:16 GMT Author: Subject:One. More. Time! Link:175855#2899695 | Parent:(none) Siblings:#1 #3 #6 #7 #8 #10 #12 #13 #23 #36 #37 #46 #47 #57 #66 #71 #80 #84 #93 #94 #96 #104 #109 #110 Children:#27 #60 #89 |
#18 | |
| I move to elect a Sheriff. | |||
| Time:2009-09-30 18:53:23 GMT Author: Subject:Re: The List .... Link:175855#2899951 | Parent:#14 Siblings:(none) Children:(none) |
#19 | |
| Yes, as stated previously, I used my save - the afflicted was never activated - sorry to put y'all through the fear, but it apparently made us sharper ... | |||
| Time:2009-09-30 18:53:58 GMT Author: Subject:(none) Link:175855#2900207 | Parent:#16 Siblings:(none) Children:(none) |
#20 | |
| The movie does seem more likely, doesn't it? | |||
| Time:2009-09-30 18:55:18 GMT Author: Subject:Re: AMAZING! Link:175855#2900463 | Parent:#4 Siblings:(none) Children:#26 |
#21 | |
| So what happens if a tiebreaker doesn't get solved in the xtra time now that there are no longer any wolves? | |||
| Time:2009-09-30 18:55:52 GMT Author: Subject:Re: The List .... Link:175855#2900719 | Parent:#11 Siblings:#15 #45 Children:#29 |
#22 | |
| night time actions happen "mostly" at the same time . . . so poisoning and serial killing occur in simo . . . mutal destruction is a great thing . . . | |||
| Time:2009-09-30 18:56:08 GMT Author: Subject:And Link:175855#2900975 | Parent:(none) Siblings:#1 #3 #6 #7 #8 #10 #12 #13 #18 #36 #37 #46 #47 #57 #66 #71 #80 #84 #93 #94 #96 #104 #109 #110 Children:#32 #50 |
#23 | |
| I move to elect a Sanitation Commissoner. The bodies are starting to really smell up the place. | |||
| Time:2009-09-30 18:56:40 GMT Author: Subject:(none) Link:175855#2901231 | Parent:#9 Siblings:(none) Children:(none) |
#24 | |
| yep I do that every now and then just to liven up the story :) | |||
| Time:2009-09-30 18:58:40 GMT Author: Subject:Re: Stride was evil! Link:175855#2901487 | Parent:#12 Siblings:(none) Children:#28 #31 |
#25 | |
| The Strangely you've never seen any other | |||
| Time:2009-09-30 18:58:58 GMT Author: Subject:Re: AMAZING! Link:175855#2901743 | Parent:#21 Siblings:(none) Children:(none) |
#26 | |
| Cerial killer probly gets 2. | |||
| Time:2009-09-30 19:02:07 GMT Author: Subject:Re: One. More. Time! Link:175855#2902255 | Parent:#18 Siblings:#60 #89 Children:#30 |
#27 | |
| Is this a good idea? I'm not criticizing, but let's face it, you can be a little eager to elect Sheriffs and we should talk this out first. If we elect the serial killer as sheriff, we're pretty much done. Also, whoever is elected sheriff will probably be killed every night in an attempt by the serial killer to get the position for themselves. If the witch poisons someone and the serial killer kills someone and we lynch someone tonight, we're down to 5 people. The next night we'd be down to 3 people and that would be the last chance. It doesn't look like a tie would even be possible (except maybe tonight). What are your thoughts? | |||
| Time:2009-09-30 19:12:09 GMT Author: Subject:Re: Stride was evil! Link:175855#2904047 | Parent:#25 Siblings:#31 Children:(none) |
#28 | |
| Undea | |||
| Time:2009-09-30 19:12:56 GMT Author: Subject:Re: The List .... Link:175855#2904559 | Parent:#22 Siblings:(none) Children:(none) |
#29 | |
| indeed, at least in the Hollow it is | |||
| Time:2009-09-30 19:13:22 GMT Author: Subject:Re: One. More. Time! Link:175855#2904815 | Parent:#27 Siblings:(none) Children:#33 #35 |
#30 | |
| Using your logic, if we elect a sheriff, the witch is the best choice, given them the best chance to do the most they can before they are offed, then each sheriff in turn esential dictates who the next target is until the sherrif either falls to the serial killer, we hit upon the killer and hit very endgame, or the killer has emptied the town? | |||
| Time:2009-09-30 19:14:33 GMT Author: Subject:Re: Stride was evil! Link:175855#2905327 | Parent:#25 Siblings:#28 Children:#34 |
#31 | |
| I see a new game being created. Kill the | |||
| Time:2009-09-30 19:14:41 GMT Author: Subject:Re: And Link:175855#2905839 | Parent:#23 Siblings:#50 Children:(none) |
#32 | |
| Hmmm, maybe a Sanitytation comissioner would be better ... | |||
| Time:2009-09-30 19:16:04 GMT Author: Subject:Re: One. More. Time! Link:175855#2906351 | Parent:#30 Siblings:#35 Children:(none) |
#33 | |
| I thought about this, and my misgivings on accepting the office of sheriff are only HEIGHTENED by the chance of miss-assinging a sucessor. | |||
| Time:2009-09-30 19:17:12 GMT Author: Subject:Re: Stride was evil! Link:175855#2906607 | Parent:#31 Siblings:(none) Children:#53 |
#34 | |
| I've been toying with a ZOMBIES of Miller's Hollow variant ... Have some cool ideas I'll share with joe later. | |||
| Time:2009-09-30 19:18:45 GMT Author: Subject:Re: One. More. Time! Link:175855#2906863 | Parent:#30 Siblings:#33 Children:(none) |
#35 | |
| Well the witch is almost certainly dead tonight, as the only confirmed non-serial-killer. Then the sheriff has a 1/5 chance of being the serial killer tomorrow, then a 1/3 chance of being the serial killer the next day. If the sheriff is the serial killer tomorrow, they only need to convince one person to vote with them to win the game. If they are the sheriff the next day, they've won automatically. | |||
| Time:2009-09-30 19:23:46 GMT Author: Subject:Is it better to get this over with faster ! Link:175855#2907119 | Parent:(none) Siblings:#1 #3 #6 #7 #8 #10 #12 #13 #18 #23 #37 #46 #47 #57 #66 #71 #80 #84 #93 #94 #96 #104 #109 #110 Children:#40 |
#36 | |
| I just did the math. With failed guesses to try to lynch the killer, the town has 3 days untill the ultimate ending. If I kill tonight with a failed poisoning, it moves the timetable up to 2 days. Do y'all want to make it faster ? | |||
| Time:2009-09-30 19:36:56 GMT Author: Subject:(none) Link:175855#2907375 | Parent:(none) Siblings:#1 #3 #6 #7 #8 #10 #12 #13 #18 #23 #36 #46 #47 #57 #66 #71 #80 #84 #93 #94 #96 #104 #109 #110 Children:#38 #39 |
#37 | |
| Mkay. A) told you I was at least not a wolf. B) I feel so very sexy for calling both wolves like that, yesterday. C) What the hell happened in the night? | |||
| Time:2009-09-30 19:44:08 GMT Author: Subject:(none) Link:175855#2907887 | Parent:#37 Siblings:#39 Children:(none) |
#38 | |
| Mkay. C) has been resolved by rereading the post. | |||
| Time:2009-09-30 19:44:50 GMT Author: Subject:(none) Link:175855#2908143 | Parent:#37 Siblings:#38 Children:#41 #42 #43 |
#39 | |
| We lynched a wolf, the remaining wolf targeted Rusty, who was NOT protecting himself, and the serial killer got the last wolf. I had expected Rusty to protect himself last night, as he had NOT done so the previous night (I saved him via potion), and I would have died, he he would have saved himself, or maybe even snoopy would have died, but ... | |||
| Time:2009-09-30 19:47:29 GMT Author: Subject:Re: Is it better to get this over with faster ! Link:175855#2908399 | Parent:#36 Siblings:(none) Children:#48 #54 #56 |
#40 | |
| Here is my theory. I think that the SK is an inexperienced player, based on kill history. That is an assumption, because the wolf of course can be an experienced player making it look like that, but that's the wine... Based on that, it leaves Snoopy or | |||
| Time:2009-09-30 19:47:38 GMT Author: Subject:(none) Link:175855#2908655 | Parent:#39 Siblings:#42 #43 Children:(none) |
#41 | |
| Bodyguard can't protect himself. | |||
| Time:2009-09-30 19:48:06 GMT Author: Subject:(none) Link:175855#2908911 | Parent:#39 Siblings:#41 #43 Children:(none) |
#42 | |
| Rusty can't protect himself. Unfortunately, it's one of the drawbacks of the Bodyguard. | |||
| Time:2009-09-30 19:49:22 GMT Author: Subject:(none) Link:175855#2909167 | Parent:#39 Siblings:#41 #42 Children:#44 #51 |
#43 | |
| Psst. IF your going to post a link to the rules, at least read them once. The bodyguard can't protect himself. *wink* | |||
| Time:2009-09-30 19:50:09 GMT Author: Subject:(none) Link:175855#2909423 | Parent:#43 Siblings:#51 Children:(none) |
#44 | |
| Nice triple post people. LOLz | |||
| Time:2009-09-30 19:51:09 GMT Author: Subject:Re: The List .... Link:175855#2909935 | Parent:#11 Siblings:#15 #22 Children:#52 |
#45 | |
| You are actually making a mistake on your math, slightly. The people all know what they themselves are. So really there is one less person for each of those calculations, since we need a PoV. However, the chance of the village as a whole lynching is correct by your math :D | |||
| Time:2009-09-30 19:52:27 GMT Author: Subject:(none) Link:175855#2910191 | Parent:(none) Siblings:#1 #3 #6 #7 #8 #10 #12 #13 #18 #23 #36 #37 #47 #57 #66 #71 #80 #84 #93 #94 #96 #104 #109 #110 Children:#49 |
#46 | |
| Awesome night. vote | |||
| Time:2009-09-30 19:53:29 GMT Author: Subject:http://ma8p.com/~adam/ljgames/millershollow || cuddlepuddle data missing ? Link:175855#2910703 | Parent:(none) Siblings:#1 #3 #6 #7 #8 #10 #12 #13 #18 #23 #36 #37 #46 #57 #66 #71 #80 #84 #93 #94 #96 #104 #109 #110 Children:#61 |
#47 | |
| It looks like we can no longer pull up the posts/ voting data for past days on http://ma8p.com/~adam/ljgames/ | |||
| Time:2009-09-30 19:54:04 GMT Author: Subject:Re: Is it better to get this over with faster ! Link:175855#2910959 | Parent:#40 Siblings:#54 #56 Children:#82 |
#48 | |
| But... but... I'm too pretty to die! | |||
| Time:2009-09-30 19:54:19 GMT Author: Subject:(none) Link:175855#2911215 | Parent:#46 Siblings:(none) Children:#101 |
#49 | |
| You rang sir? | |||
| Time:2009-09-30 19:54:41 GMT Author: Subject:Re: And Link:175855#2911471 | Parent:#23 Siblings:#32 Children:(none) |
#50 | |
| Yes, please. Someone with a bulldozer. | |||
| Time:2009-09-30 19:54:41 GMT Author: Subject:(none) Link:175855#2911727 | Parent:#43 Siblings:#44 Children:(none) |
#51 | |
| Pbbbbblt ! I have read the rules so many times that I'm getting confused is all ... sigh | |||
| Time:2009-09-30 19:55:43 GMT Author: Subject:Re: The List .... Link:175855#2911983 | Parent:#45 Siblings:(none) Children:(none) |
#52 | |
| Good damned point ... | |||
| Time:2009-09-30 19:56:07 GMT Author: Subject:Re: Stride was evil! Link:175855#2912239 | Parent:#34 Siblings:(none) Children:(none) |
#53 | |
| Hahahahahaah Undea | |||
| Time:2009-09-30 19:58:26 GMT Author: Subject:Re: Is it better to get this over with faster ! Link:175855#2912495 | Parent:#40 Siblings:#48 #56 Children:#55 #58 #59 #63 #72 |
#54 | |
| Actually - your intelligence works against you here - the serial killer has been VERY SMART this entire time ... which makes you and H&H prime suspects ... Remember - I LIKE the serial killer, though (s)her is going to kill me tonight ... :( | |||
| Time:2009-09-30 19:59:25 GMT Author: Subject:Re: Is it better to get this over with faster ! Link:175855#2912751 | Parent:#54 Siblings:#58 #59 #63 #72 Children:(none) |
#55 | |
| More clearly - | |||
| Time:2009-09-30 19:59:39 GMT Author: Subject:Re: Is it better to get this over with faster ! Link:175855#2913007 | Parent:#40 Siblings:#48 #54 Children:(none) |
#56 | |
| I totally disagree with this theory. In past games the inexperienced serial killer, killed those he/she was voting for in the lynching. This killers randomness and cunning shows they are an advanced killer. BTW - I am not the cereal killer. | |||
| Time:2009-09-30 20:19:23 GMT Author: Subject:(none) Link:175855#2913263 | Parent:(none) Siblings:#1 #3 #6 #7 #8 #10 #12 #13 #18 #23 #36 #37 #46 #47 #66 #71 #80 #84 #93 #94 #96 #104 #109 #110 Children:(none) |
#57 | |
| Vote | |||
| Time:2009-09-30 20:25:01 GMT Author: Subject:Re: Is it better to get this over with faster ! Link:175855#2913519 | Parent:#54 Siblings:#55 #59 #63 #72 Children:#77 |
#58 | |
| Not that I'm defending my own honour but my reaction to | |||
| Time:2009-09-30 20:27:23 GMT Author: Subject:Re: Is it better to get this over with faster ! Link:175855#2913775 | Parent:#54 Siblings:#55 #58 #63 #72 Children:(none) |
#59 | |
| I disagree. The serial killer does not seem to be an experienced player. I'm not saying they didn't do a good job, but the first two wolf-kills were a form of luck. If you look at their kill history, they're being very random, which means that they're not an idiot (which is very much to their credit), but some of the kills make me almost certain that they're not seasoned. The double kill of the hunter is the first one, and Rusty managing to live through to tonight. The bodyguard is the bane of the Serial Killer's existence. He was the only one who can stop them from doing their thing in the night. The fact that the Serial Killer let them live (TWICE!) makes me almost certain. The fact that we were getting close to wolf-victory can be used as an excuse, but there's no good reason for the SK to make an oversight like that, considering Rusty didn't manage to save anyone in the days of grace the SK gave him. It was too big a risk for the SK, and an experienced player /should/ have known that. Of course, the opposite is always true of anything said in this game. It could be an experienced player, making newb-looking mistakes. But my gut says that the mistakes are too organic, and not forced enough. It looks like actual mistakes, as opposed to someone trying to make mistakes. | |||
| Time:2009-09-30 20:29:53 GMT Author: Subject:Re: One. More. Time! Link:175855#2914031 | Parent:#18 Siblings:#27 #89 Children:(none) |
#60 | |
| I don't think this makes sense from anyone's perspective other than the serial killer - who if lucky, becomes the sheriff and if unlucky can kill the sheriff and try again. vote | |||
| Time:2009-09-30 20:31:45 GMT Author: Subject:Re: http://ma8p.com/~adam/ljgames/millershollow || cuddlepuddle data missing ? Link:175855#2914287 | Parent:#47 Siblings:(none) Children:#62 |
#61 | |
| Just crashed, i think. | |||
| Time:2009-09-30 20:36:42 GMT Author: Subject:Re: http://ma8p.com/~adam/ljgames/millershollow || cuddlepuddle data missing ? Link:175855#2914543 | Parent:#61 Siblings:(none) Children:#64 #65 |
#62 | |
| Blugh. Dataz ... need .... more ..... dataz | |||
| Time:2009-09-30 20:48:27 GMT Author: Subject:Re: Is it better to get this over with faster ! Link:175855#2915055 | Parent:#54 Siblings:#55 #58 #59 #72 Children:#73 |
#63 | |
| In Depth Analysis time!: Night 1: SK kills Night 2: SK gets Night 3: SK goes for the Hunter. It's a mistake, as I said before, because the SK doubles up on a kill. The SK especially should not have gone for the hunter, because they do not have the redundancy the wolves had. If the hunter shoots them in retaliation, they're done. Night 4: SK gets Night 5: Ragnarok goes down in martyr glory. It is impossible to tell how this kill actually happened. It is either a mistake (SK targeted Rusty, along with the wolves) or proof that I'm wrong (SK got unlucky, and targeted the Martyr independantly). Since I can't make a conclusion, I'm forced to ignore this. Night 6: SK goes and Kills Night 7: SK kills That concludes Dragon's Attack Analysis. As for H&H, he is in fact my suspicion if the inexperienced theory doesn't pan out. The only data we have is the SK kill records. Given the fact that I have shared my conclusions, I can do no more on that. There is one corollary factor, which is not damning, but worries me about H&H. Since I've not got a night phase, I've been at leisure to sleep through the 11 o'clock deadlines. I don't post at the end of many days, simply cause I've finally crashed, and don't get up until noon. The night phases have, for the most part, been very short. The players have been active at the right times, and gotten everything done. H&H has been doing a lot of posting at the end of days, and that makes me a little suspicious. If you'd like to change the time on trying my theories, I'll gladly vote H&H today. But I still think we're better served by dropping the newer players today, and offing H&H tomorrow. One mistake you made, however, is that your potion does not cost us a day. You HAVE to use it. We lynch one. We're at 7. SK kills you, we're at 6, you poison, we're at 5. Day one complete. Day two, we lynch one, SK kills one. We're at 3. As opposed to. We lynch one, SK kills one, we're at 6. Lynch, kill, 4. It makes no difference, we've got two days left. Might as well give those last two villagers 50% odds, instead of 33%. | |||
| Time:2009-09-30 20:49:18 GMT Author: Subject:Re: http://ma8p.com/~adam/ljgames/millershollow || cuddlepuddle data missing ? Link:175855#2915311 | Parent:#62 Siblings:#65 Children:#67 |
#64 | |
| I just compiled a list of SK kills, with my analysis of each. You have relevant dataz :P | |||
| Time:2009-09-30 20:50:35 GMT Author: Subject:Re: http://ma8p.com/~adam/ljgames/millershollow || cuddlepuddle data missing ? Link:175855#2915567 | Parent:#62 Siblings:#64 Children:(none) |
#65 | |
| Also, appears the crash has been fixed. | |||
| Time:2009-09-30 20:56:38 GMT Author: Subject:I decided I wanted to make this top tier, so I could find it again: Link:175855#2915823 | Parent:(none) Siblings:#1 #3 #6 #7 #8 #10 #12 #13 #18 #23 #36 #37 #46 #47 #57 #71 #80 #84 #93 #94 #96 #104 #109 #110 Children:#68 #74 #75 #103 |
#66 | |
| Reposted! In Depth Analysis time!: Night 1: SK kills Night 2: SK gets Night 3: SK goes for the Hunter. It's a mistake, as I said before, because the SK doubles up on a kill. The SK especially should not have gone for the hunter, because they do not have the redundancy the wolves had. If the hunter shoots them in retaliation, they're done. Night 4: SK gets Night 5: Ragnarok goes down in martyr glory. It is impossible to tell how this kill actually happened. It is either a mistake (SK targeted Rusty, along with the wolves) or proof that I'm wrong (SK got unlucky, and targeted the Martyr independantly). Since I can't make a conclusion, I'm forced to ignore this. Night 6: SK goes and Kills Night 7: SK kills That concludes Dragon's Attack Analysis. As for H&H, he is in fact my suspicion if the inexperienced theory doesn't pan out. The only data we have is the SK kill records. Given the fact that I have shared my conclusions, I can do no more on that. There is one corollary factor, which is not damning, but worries me about H&H. Since I've not got a night phase, I've been at leisure to sleep through the 11 o'clock deadlines. I don't post at the end of many days, simply cause I've finally crashed, and don't get up until noon. The night phases have, for the most part, been very short. The players have been active at the right times, and gotten everything done. H&H has been doing a lot of posting at the end of days, and that makes me a little suspicious. If you'd like to change the time on trying my theories, I'll gladly vote H&H today. But I still think we're better served by dropping the newer players today, and offing H&H tomorrow. One mistake you made, however, is that your potion does not cost us a day. You HAVE to use it. We lynch one. We're at 7. SK kills you, we're at 6, you poison, we're at 5. Day one complete. Day two, we lynch one, SK kills one. We're at 3. As opposed to. We lynch one, SK kills one, we're at 6. Lynch, kill, 4. It makes no difference, we've got two days left. Might as well give those last two villagers 50% odds, instead of 33%. | |||
| Time:2009-09-30 21:01:08 GMT Author: Subject:Re: http://ma8p.com/~adam/ljgames/millershollow || cuddlepuddle data missing ? Link:175855#2916079 | Parent:#64 Siblings:(none) Children:(none) |
#67 | |
| Indeed - and good dataz too ... I'm also looking for voting records, which i'll try to gather for a post later. | |||
| Time:2009-09-30 21:06:32 GMT Author: Subject:Re: I decided I wanted to make this top tier, so I could find it again: Link:175855#2916591 | Parent:#66 Siblings:#74 #75 #103 Children:#69 #70 |
#68 | |
| Today/tonight - Assuming we don't lynch killer - 2 kills = 6 left (serial plus 5) 2nd day/ night - Assuming you don't lynch killer (I don't anticipate surviving) - 2 kills = 4 left (serial plus 3) 3rd day/ night - Assuming you don't lynch killer - 2 kills = 2 left (serial plus 1 = END) Vs Today/tonight - Assuming we don't lynch killer - 2 kills + my poison = 5 left (serial plus 4) 2nd day/ night - Assuming you don't lynch killer (I don't anticipate surviving) - 2 kills = 2 left (serial plus 1 = END) Am I wrong in this math ? | |||
| Time:2009-09-30 21:08:13 GMT Author: Subject:Re: I decided I wanted to make this top tier, so I could find it again: Link:175855#2916847 | Parent:#68 Siblings:#70 Children:#90 |
#69 | |
| Yup. 5-2 is not 2 :P | |||
| Time:2009-09-30 21:21:16 GMT Author: Subject:Re: I decided I wanted to make this top tier, so I could find it again: Link:175855#2917359 | Parent:#68 Siblings:#69 Children:(none) |
#70 | |
| Also, voting history is TOTALLY unimportant. The SK should be voting like a villager, and will have no tells in their voting, simply because they have no agenda other than survival. Their mere presence alone is enough. They have nobody else to work with, and so it's not going to help looking at their voting history. What's it going to tell us? They're at a happy place, because we've got less data than we'd like. We've got to make the most of their kill history, cause it's the only time that they make statements that can't just be what the village wants them to say. | |||
| Time:2009-09-30 22:33:27 GMT Author: Subject:(none) Link:175855#2917871 | Parent:(none) Siblings:#1 #3 #6 #7 #8 #10 #12 #13 #18 #23 #36 #37 #46 #47 #57 #66 #80 #84 #93 #94 #96 #104 #109 #110 Children:(none) |
#71 | |
| Well, since voting for someone just because they want a Sheriff has been proven to be an idiotic tactic and gotten good villagers killed, I VOTE They also fit | |||
| Time:2009-09-30 22:44:48 GMT Author: Subject:Re: Is it better to get this over with faster ! Link:175855#2918127 | Parent:#54 Siblings:#55 #58 #59 #63 Children:(none) |
#72 | |
| I think you have a tendency to vastly over-estimate my in-game abilities. I've played a LOT of games with this group, yes, but I typically haven't done very well. | |||
| Time:2009-09-30 22:50:23 GMT Author: Subject:Re: Is it better to get this over with faster ! Link:175855#2918383 | Parent:#63 Siblings:(none) Children:(none) |
#73 | |
| H&H has been doing a lot of posting at the end of days, and that makes me a little suspicious. That's partly my work schedule (I'm usually gone from around 7:15 until 9:45-noon) and partly because things have been getting crazy at the last minute in this game. | |||
| Time:2009-09-30 22:54:09 GMT Author: Subject:Re: I decided I wanted to make this top tier, so I could find it again: Link:175855#2918639 | Parent:#66 Siblings:#68 #75 #103 Children:(none) |
#74 | |
| I think you're making a mistake I am myself very prone to making: taking the actions of the baddies at face value. Even if we assume that the actions of the SK reflect inexperience, there is no way of knowing whether that's someone who IS inexperienced or someone ACTING inexperienced. I think it was Also, I am not the serial killer, etc. | |||
| Time:2009-09-30 23:00:02 GMT Author: Subject:Re: I decided I wanted to make this top tier, so I could find it again: Link:175855#2918895 | Parent:#66 Siblings:#68 #74 #103 Children:#76 |
#75 | |
| Also, I'd like to point out that a solo special does not need to be present during the night period, making that consideration meaningless. In the past when I was a seer, I'd comment in the previous night's seer post with who I was spying on, in case I couldn't make the night phase. So really, with the possible exception of the wolves (i've never been one), being present for the night phase is not necessary for any of the specials. | |||
| Time:2009-09-30 23:50:16 GMT Author: Subject:Re: I decided I wanted to make this top tier, so I could find it again: Link:175855#2919151 | Parent:#75 Siblings:(none) Children:#78 |
#76 | |
| With the exception of the pre-use healing potion witch. | |||
| Time:2009-09-30 23:53:13 GMT Author: Subject:Re: Is it better to get this over with faster ! Link:175855#2919407 | Parent:#58 Siblings:(none) Children:#79 |
#77 | |
| Don't get me wrong. The SK played an awesome game. Doubly so if they're not on my list, and end up winning this despite me :D | |||
| Time:2009-09-30 23:55:56 GMT Author: Subject:Re: I decided I wanted to make this top tier, so I could find it again: Link:175855#2919663 | Parent:#76 Siblings:(none) Children:(none) |
#78 | |
| ah, i stand corrected. yes, that one could be important. | |||
| Time:2009-09-30 23:58:40 GMT Author: Subject:Re: Is it better to get this over with faster ! Link:175855#2919919 | Parent:#77 Siblings:(none) Children:(none) |
#79 | |
| Actually, I've now caught up on your later posts and I have changed my mind. Your logic is sound. It's not me (but I could see an argument why it would be - I've not voted with the crowd and I certainly could have messed up with I think that even under the circumstances you've outlined, | |||
| Time:2009-10-01 00:00:07 GMT Author: Subject:(none) Link:175855#2920175 | Parent:(none) Siblings:#1 #3 #6 #7 #8 #10 #12 #13 #18 #23 #36 #37 #46 #47 #57 #66 #71 #84 #93 #94 #96 #104 #109 #110 Children:#81 #85 |
#80 | |
| Looking at those of us left standing and my understanding of how things are breaking down, My gut is telling me DA's logic leads to Faynmar, Expierenced and smart leads to Hungry Hollow or and avoident points to snoopy. Wanting to draw snoopy back in I would vote for him, but not wanting to prolong multiple ties I am going to join in on the no love for VOTE | |||
| Time:2009-10-01 00:08:36 GMT Author: Subject:(none) Link:175855#2920431 | Parent:#80 Siblings:#85 Children:(none) |
#81 | |
| I had to laugh at Faynmar : being able to FD right now would be useful! ;) | |||
| Time:2009-10-01 00:14:44 GMT Author: Subject:Re: Is it better to get this over with faster ! Link:175855#2920687 | Parent:#48 Siblings:(none) Children:#83 #92 |
#82 | |
| Wait, no! I'm prettier, honest. I realised too late that agreeing with DA just made me a better choice. Pah. If I were the serial killer, I'd leave myself and Snoopy alive (on the basis that we'll get lynched and thus make his life easier). Thinking it through: Tonight: Logophylia (as the witch and a non-lynching candidate) Next night: Not that that really helps narrow it down. Also, we might still have an afflicted - it would be unlucky but one more wolf could join the party. | |||
| Time:2009-10-01 00:32:09 GMT Author: Subject:Re: Is it better to get this over with faster ! Link:175855#2920943 | Parent:#82 Siblings:#92 Children:#107 |
#83 | |
| We are 98% sure we have no afflicted. The other 2 percent comes when we get to the next night phase. Thanks for putting those kill suggestions out there... now we're going to get no more information from the kills. It's quite true that there's not much to be gained, and it's basically pretty expected that those would have been the kills. However leaving me alive may be worthwhile, if I'm on the wrong track. We'll have to wait and see. It'll be interesting to see if/when we catch the killer, and how it works out if Gnat, | |||
| Time:2009-10-01 01:33:07 GMT Author: Subject:(none) Link:175855#2921199 | Parent:(none) Siblings:#1 #3 #6 #7 #8 #10 #12 #13 #18 #23 #36 #37 #46 #47 #57 #66 #71 #80 #93 #94 #96 #104 #109 #110 Children:#86 |
#84 | |
| I think I'm going to stick with tradition and vote against the bandwagon. You seem a nice enough fellow, and I promise this isn't personal. It seems that DA is often pretty quick to make admittedly logical accusations of how all the other players could be the SK, but doesn't really include himself. I'm sticking with my gut. unvote vote | |||
| Time:2009-10-01 01:36:03 GMT Author: Subject:(none) Link:175855#2921455 | Parent:#80 Siblings:#81 Children:(none) |
#85 | |
| Experienced and smart leads as much to you, | |||
| Time:2009-10-01 01:40:02 GMT Author: Subject:(none) Link:175855#2921711 | Parent:#84 Siblings:(none) Children:#87 #88 |
#86 | |
| I agree that it's suspicious. DA has everything worked out nice and neat, doesn't he? Tonight we lynch an inexperienced villager. And he says I'm suspicious, but that's okay, we'll lynch me tomorrow. And on the next day, the SK has the win. I don't know that it makes him the SK, but he seems to be very loudly taking charge and posting some pretty in-depth arguments as to why we shouldn't even be looking in his direction. | |||
| Time:2009-10-01 01:59:55 GMT Author: Subject:(none) Link:175855#2921967 | Parent:#86 Siblings:#88 Children:(none) |
#87 | |
| That's cause I'm not the Serial Killer :P | |||
| Time:2009-10-01 02:01:15 GMT Author: Subject:(none) Link:175855#2922223 | Parent:#86 Siblings:#87 Children:#97 #100 |
#88 | |
| Actually, the best proof I can give s to why I'm not is Rusty's continued life for two days longer than it should have lasted. I would not have made that choice, especially after the wolves demonstrated their willingness to go after the easy target with the Hunter. | |||
| Time:2009-10-01 02:06:53 GMT Author: Subject:Re: One. More. Time! Link:175855#2922479 | Parent:#18 Siblings:#27 #60 Children:(none) |
#89 | |
| Seconded. It's the only way we can actually get more information out of this. | |||
| Time:2009-10-01 02:07:10 GMT Author: Subject:Re: I decided I wanted to make this top tier, so I could find it again: Link:175855#2922735 | Parent:#69 Siblings:(none) Children:(none) |
#90 | |
| ..... true .... | |||
| Time:2009-10-01 02:08:19 GMT Author: Subject:(none) Link:175855#2922991 | Parent:#13 Siblings:#16 Children:#102 |
#91 | |
| I really have to ask, Ben. Was the call for Sheriff yesterday a call for the sheriff, or a way of drawing out the wolves, cause it worked brilliantly as the latter :P | |||
| Time:2009-10-01 02:08:30 GMT Author: Subject:Re: Is it better to get this over with faster ! Link:175855#2923247 | Parent:#82 Siblings:#83 Children:#106 |
#92 | |
| Nope - afflicted only triggers when killed by wolves - its a non-issue at this point. | |||
| Time:2009-10-01 02:12:52 GMT Author: Subject:A good sheriff plan Link:175855#2923503 | Parent:(none) Siblings:#1 #3 #6 #7 #8 #10 #12 #13 #18 #23 #36 #37 #46 #47 #57 #66 #71 #80 #84 #94 #96 #104 #109 #110 Children:#95 |
#93 | |
| I thought of a way to keep the witch one more day. Vote in a sheriff (not the witch) Have the sheriff put the witch in jail for the night. The witch will last ONE MORE full round. One more day to decide who the poison goes to. I think you need a sheriff!! | |||
| Time:2009-10-01 02:14:43 GMT Author: Subject:(none) Link:175855#2923759 | Parent:(none) Siblings:#1 #3 #6 #7 #8 #10 #12 #13 #18 #23 #36 #37 #46 #47 #57 #66 #71 #80 #84 #93 #96 #104 #109 #110 Children:#108 |
#94 | |
| Ya know, let's make this simpler. Logo, don't witchbomb Snoopy tonight, if you aren't willing to trust me 100%. I've laid out all the logic I'm going to come up with, and except for a little bit of discussion to fixate on, not much more is going on. If you've even the slightest doubt about me, witchbomb me, and that way it'll be revealed I'm a villager, and everyone can use my information to work this out. | |||
| Time:2009-10-01 02:15:32 GMT Author: Subject:Re: A good sheriff plan Link:175855#2924015 | Parent:#93 Siblings:(none) Children:(none) |
#95 | |
| The Sheriff doesn't jail people, that's the magistrate. Also, the magistrate doesn't jail people at night, only the day. Thanks for thinking, though :D | |||
| Time:2009-10-01 02:18:01 GMT Author: Subject:(none) Link:175855#2924527 | Parent:(none) Siblings:#1 #3 #6 #7 #8 #10 #12 #13 #18 #23 #36 #37 #46 #47 #57 #66 #71 #80 #84 #93 #94 #104 #109 #110 Children:(none) |
#96 | |
| Please check my comment on the sheriff poll before voting. Kthx. | |||
| Time:2009-10-01 02:50:10 GMT Author: Subject:(none) Link:175855#2925039 | Parent:#88 Siblings:#100 Children:#98 |
#97 | |
| but maybe that's why you did it, so you could use it as a defense to hide behind :P WHEELS WITHIN WHEELS | |||
| Time:2009-10-01 03:04:00 GMT Author: Subject:(none) Link:175855#2925551 | Parent:#97 Siblings:(none) Children:#99 |
#98 | |
| The first thing I learned in this game is that if you do something, and then point it out, it gets you no credibility. You have to have someone else point it out for it to mean anything :P All you're really convincing me of is that maybe I should be worrying about you first :P | |||
| Time:2009-10-01 03:05:34 GMT Author: Subject:(none) Link:175855#2925807 | Parent:#98 Siblings:(none) Children:(none) |
#99 | |
| the only thing you have to worry about with me is that i might live to the 3-man round and wind up accidentally lynching the other villager :P | |||
| Time:2009-10-01 04:47:45 GMT Author: Subject:(none) Link:175855#2926063 | Parent:#88 Siblings:#97 Children:(none) |
#100 | |
| As always, an intriguing and valid argument. And you're likely to survive another night due to the bandwagon headed for | |||
| Time:2009-10-01 04:57:59 GMT Author: Subject:(none) Link:175855#2926319 | Parent:#49 Siblings:(none) Children:(none) |
#101 | |
| Yes, | |||
| Time:2009-10-01 06:09:32 GMT Author: Subject:(none) Link:175855#2926831 | Parent:#91 Siblings:(none) Children:(none) |
#102 | |
| I really wish I could take credit for that. I actually think the sheriff is a good idea. | |||
| Time:2009-10-01 06:11:50 GMT Author: Subject:Re: I decided I wanted to make this top tier, so I could find it again: Link:175855#2927087 | Parent:#66 Siblings:#68 #74 #75 Children:(none) |
#103 | |
| I'd like to point out, if I were the SK, I would have gone after Rusty on nights 6 and 7. | |||
| Time:2009-10-01 06:48:14 GMT Author: Subject:(none) Link:175855#2927343 | Parent:(none) Siblings:#1 #3 #6 #7 #8 #10 #12 #13 #18 #23 #36 #37 #46 #47 #57 #66 #71 #80 #84 #93 #94 #96 #109 #110 Children:#105 |
#104 | |
| I've never had a game where I spent so much time grasping at straws. vote | |||
| Time:2009-10-01 06:56:58 GMT Author: Subject:(none) Link:175855#2927599 | Parent:#104 Siblings:(none) Children:(none) |
#105 | |
| That's unfortunately how the serial killer hunt goes. We were lucky and had the one last game lynched on day 2, for no reason really. Part of that feeling, I'm sure, comes from lynching our seer early. i still can't get over that... the village lynched its seer... It's been a special game. But then, that's why we play. Cause every time it gives us a new way to say "you're fucking kidding me, he did WHAT?" ;P | |||
| Time:2009-10-01 08:47:16 GMT Author: Subject:Re: Is it better to get this over with faster ! Link:175855#2927855 | Parent:#92 Siblings:(none) Children:(none) |
#106 | |
| Oh yes, of course. I wasn't thinking. | |||
| Time:2009-10-01 08:54:23 GMT Author: Subject:Re: Is it better to get this over with faster ! Link:175855#2928111 | Parent:#83 Siblings:(none) Children:(none) |
#107 | |
| now we're going to get no more information from the kills. Seriously? I don't follow this at all. | |||
| Time:2009-10-01 14:20:04 GMT Author: Subject:(none) Link:175855#2928367 | Parent:#94 Siblings:(none) Children:(none) |
#108 | |
| OK, so in the morning, it comes clear that I am a villager and if Logo takes your advice and you are telling the truth, that you are a villager. Now at that point, what's to be done with your information? | |||
| Time:2009-10-01 16:26:28 GMT Author: Subject:(none) Link:175855#2928879 | Parent:(none) Siblings:#1 #3 #6 #7 #8 #10 #12 #13 #18 #23 #36 #37 #46 #47 #57 #66 #71 #80 #84 #93 #94 #96 #104 #110 Children:(none) |
#109 | |
| OOC Warning: | |||
| Time:2009-10-01 18:01:03 GMT Author: Subject:(none) Link:175855#2929391 | Parent:(none) Siblings:#1 #3 #6 #7 #8 #10 #12 #13 #18 #23 #36 #37 #46 #47 #57 #66 #71 #80 #84 #93 #94 #96 #104 #109 Children:(none) |
#110 | |
| POST CLOSED | |||
| vote | 2009-09-30 19:47:29 GMT | #40 | |||
| vote | 2009-09-30 19:52:27 GMT | #46 | |||
| vote | 2009-09-30 20:19:23 GMT | #57 | |||
| vote | 2009-09-30 20:29:53 GMT | #60 | |||
| vote | 2009-09-30 22:33:27 GMT | #71 | |||
| vote | 2009-10-01 00:00:07 GMT | #80 | |||
| unvote | 2009-10-01 01:33:07 GMT | #84 | |||
| vote | 2009-10-01 01:33:07 GMT | #84 | |||
| vote | 2009-10-01 06:48:14 GMT | #104 |
| 4 against | : | ||
| 2 against | : | ||
| 1 against | : | ||
| Posted but no vote | : | ||
| posts by | : | (24) | #37 #38 #40 #42 #45 #59 #61 #63 #64 #65 #66 #69 #70 #77 #83 #87 #88 #89 #91 #94 #95 #96 #98 #105 | |
| posts by | : | (22) | #3 #5 #6 #11 #19 #28 #29 #32 #33 #34 #36 #39 #47 #51 #52 #54 #55 #62 #67 #68 #90 #92 | |
| posts by | : | (14) | #8 #9 #27 #35 #72 #73 #74 #75 #78 #85 #86 #97 #99 #104 | |
| posts by | : | (10) | #13 #15 #18 #20 #23 #26 #71 #102 #103 #109 | |
| posts by | : | (9) | #10 #14 #16 #21 #30 #43 #44 #76 #80 | |
| posts by | : | (9) | #17 #58 #60 #79 #81 #82 #106 #107 #108 | |
| posts by | : | (6) | #46 #48 #50 #84 #100 #101 | |
| posts by | : | (6) | #4 #22 #24 #25 #41 #110 | |
| posts by | : | (5) | #12 #31 #53 #56 #93 | |
| posts by | : | (2) | #7 #57 | |
| posts by | : | (1) | #2 | |
| posts by | : | (1) | #49 | |
| posts by | : | (1) | #1 |