lupusintabula - Day 7: Werewolf Victory

Link:32292 Sat Jan 23 00:16:47 2010

"You're dooming yourselves," says the Sheepherd Daedalus. "The Village and yourselves. "[info]Maniakes is not a Lawyer; he is a Werewolf!"

"Likely story Wolf! I am the Bodyguard, which means you lied about being the Preist. You are the one we should burn." [info]Maniakes' steely gaze glitters in the failing sunlight.

The Hunter [info]Chessiekitty grabs the Sheepherd from behind. The Witch [info]Lorriet binds his arms and then his legs. Together with the Blacksmith [info]Infohazard, they carry the bound Sheepherd to the pyre and unceremoniously toss him on the prepared wood. [info]Maniakes watches and smiles as the flames catch the bottom of the pyre.

****************************************

The Brewer and the Hunter assemble in the Village Square in the morning, looks of confusion on their drawn faces. "Where are the others? The Werewolves couldn't have killed three last night?!"

"We are here," growls the Werewolf [info]Maniakes, his countenance distended and covered in blood-matted fur. The Werewolf [info]Infohazard steps forward and flings the broken body of the Witch [info]Lorriet to the ground.

"We were tricked!" shouts the Hunter, who springs into action. The Werewolves leap forward with preternatural speed and tear her head from her body. Her body crumples to the ground as the Wolves' eyes turn toward maliciously toward the Village Brewer.

Summary: Werewolf victory! Excellent work, [info]infohazard, [info]maniakes, and [info]pianorain.

******************************************

What did y'all think of the blind game? It seemed to favor the Wolves, and I had predicted a Wolf victory on the Day 1: Watcher's Only post. Was it too easy, Wolves? Perhaps if we add more specials, it will reduce their advantage.

Who's running the next Wolf game and when?

What do y'all think of the "disguise" roles I use in the flavor (Brewer, Vintner, Spinner, etc)? Should I continue using them? Do you want a specific disguise for yourself?
Time:2005-10-25 18:21:18 GMT
Author:[info]lorriet
Subject:(none)
Link:32292#537892

Parent:(none)
Siblings:#2 #3 #14 #17 #18 #19 #23 #38
Children:#4
#1
Bah! I knew [info]Infohazard was...but not in a logical way...just in my head...where it did me absolutely no good. :P



Time:2005-10-25 18:25:07 GMT
Author:[info]chessiekitty
Subject:(none)
Link:32292#538148

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Siblings:#1 #3 #14 #17 #18 #19 #23 #38
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 #2
Argh! Well played wolfies! :)


Time:2005-10-25 18:31:06 GMT
Author:[info]chessiekitty
Subject:(none)
Link:32292#539172

Parent:(none)
Siblings:#1 #2 #14 #17 #18 #19 #23 #38
Children:#5 #7
#3
Was H&H still in the game, or did he die off somewhere and I didn't know it? Since the hunter was still in the game, shouldn't there have been one more lynching? Though if they voted to eat me on night 6, I was going to take out H&H, so it would have been a wolfy win anyway. But if they ate a different villager...

(though I'm sure they would have won anyway)


Time:2005-10-25 18:35:35 GMT
Author:[info]gorillashaman
Subject:(none)
Link:32292#539428

Parent:#1
Siblings:(none)
Children:#6 #11
#4
'sok. I was sweating bullets trying to figure out a way to pull a win that didn't involve claiming to be the PRIEST. I just didn't think that position would be believable. I needed someone else to make a wrong vote ([info]chessiekitty) before I could hop on the bandwagon. My last post was the best I could come up with for a believable scenario; a blatant appeal to authority, with no room for you to ask questions. I wasn't sure you'd go for it. If neither you nor [info]hungryandhollow went for it, we'd have been doomed.

And the blind game was much harder to play in.


Time:2005-10-25 18:37:38 GMT
Author:[info]gorillashaman
Subject:(none)
Link:32292#539940

Parent:#3
Siblings:#7
Children:#8 #10
#5
[info]lorriet would have been et next.

That'd leave you, me, [info]maniakes, and H&H. Doesn't matter who you two vote for; as long as [info]maniakes and I stuck together on voting for H&H we at least force a tie, which gives us TWO eats that night.


Time:2005-10-25 18:39:58 GMT
Author:[info]lorriet
Subject:(none)
Link:32292#540452

Parent:#4
Siblings:#11
Children:(none)
 #6
Yeah, I don't think the blind game was the best introduction for me...and having me have a main role...gyah. I was SO tempted to vote for you...but darn it, you're the only one I've actually met, and I feel totally gullible! :P

I was really wanting to vote for [info]Maniakes in my head, but it wouldn't have made a difference, and I couldn't explain WHY, and it was ALL so confusing!


Time:2005-10-25 18:42:54 GMT
Author:[info]lupusintabula
Subject:(none)
Link:32292#540708

Parent:#3
Siblings:#5
Children:#9
#7
I believe that the rules are: If at any time the number of Werewolves is greater than or equal to the number of non-Werewolves (Villagers and specials), then the game immediately ends in a Werewolf victory. It dosn't matter which non-Werewolves are left, only how many there are.


Time:2005-10-25 18:45:27 GMT
Author:[info]lupusintabula
Subject:(none)
Link:32292#540964

Parent:#5
Siblings:#10
Children:(none)
 #8
You could just say, "Hi, we are the Werewolves. It dosn't matter if you vote for us, 'cause we can tie it up!" That might actually be amusing, but ultimately pointless. Even if the Sheriff is one of the characters left, only the number of Werewolves vs. the number of non-Werewolves determines the end conditions of the game, not votes.


Time:2005-10-25 18:46:19 GMT
Author:[info]maniakes
Subject:(none)
Link:32292#541220

Parent:#7
Siblings:(none)
Children:#12
#9
In the previous game where it was ruled that play continues if the hunter is alive, the hunter was the sheriff, so the wolves couldn't have forced a tie with equal numbers.


Time:2005-10-25 18:47:54 GMT
Author:[info]lupusintabula
Subject:(none)
Link:32292#541476

Parent:#5
Siblings:#8
Children:#13
#10
I meant to make it obvious that you two ate her Night 6. Sorry I didn't wait for your vote for [info]Lorriet, but it didn't look like you two were going after the Hunter, which would've been the only thing that might've extended the game. Actually, I think Chessikitty was gunning at Hungry. Whatever.


Time:2005-10-25 18:49:15 GMT
Author:[info]maniakes
Subject:(none)
Link:32292#541732

Parent:#4
Siblings:#6
Children:(none)
 #11
I'm sorry I put you in that position, but there was no way I could warn you, and I didn't see any other way around the possibility that somebody was watching for the dogpile.

I wasn't sure whether you should claim priesthood or not, and trusted your judgement there. Looks like things worked out.

God, I'd forgotten how much fun the endgame was.


Time:2005-10-25 18:49:49 GMT
Author:[info]lupusintabula
Subject:(none)
Link:32292#541988

Parent:#9
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Children:#16
#12
Remember which game? This piques my curiousity.


Time:2005-10-25 18:50:45 GMT
Author:[info]lorriet
Subject:(none)
Link:32292#542244

Parent:#10
Siblings:(none)
Children:(none)
 #13
Gyah! I was et??? :(



Time:2005-10-25 19:01:29 GMT
Author:[info]lorriet
Subject:(none)
Link:32292#542500

Parent:(none)
Siblings:#1 #2 #3 #17 #18 #19 #23 #38
Children:#15
#14
In retrospect, I should have watched a game before joining in...I'd read through a couple, but you really don't get the feel for it when it's all happened already.

I am too trusting and too honest, I think, so this game sort of threw me, I never assume someone is lying (hence the save on night one) and not having any context for the personalities made it difficult...

I'm willing to try another one, but I don't know, I go too much on instinct, rather than logic so I don't know if my mind can wrap around this game... :D


Time:2005-10-25 19:18:01 GMT
Author:[info]lupusintabula
Subject:(none)
Link:32292#542756

Parent:#14
Siblings:(none)
Children:(none)
 #15
Your instincts served you right! You should've toasted [info]Maniakes and [info]Infohazard! Use the Force, Lorrie...


Time:2005-10-25 19:42:11 GMT
Author:[info]maniakes
Subject:(none)
Link:32292#543268

Parent:#12
Siblings:(none)
Children:(none)
 #16
[info]millershollow game #2, when [info]ilovetequila, [info]pianorain, [info]kraydon, and I were the wolves. [info]airor was the hunter/sheriff.


Time:2005-10-25 20:02:24 GMT
Author:[info]daedalus4096
Subject:(none)
Link:32292#543524

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Siblings:#1 #2 #3 #14 #18 #19 #23 #38
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#17
You just wouldn't listen, would you...

*sigh*


Time:2005-10-25 20:27:06 GMT
Author:[info]parzanese
Subject:(none)
Link:32292#544292

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Siblings:#1 #2 #3 #14 #17 #19 #23 #38
Children:#28
#18
See!

Lynch [info]the1mouse on Day 1 - victory for Villagers
Don't lynch [info]the1mouse on Day 1 - victory for Werewolves

:)


Time:2005-10-25 21:41:15 GMT
Author:[info]hungryandhollow
Subject:(none)
Link:32292#544548

Parent:(none)
Siblings:#1 #2 #3 #14 #17 #18 #23 #38
Children:#21 #33
#19
Eh. I lost a lot of interest this game, just because blind, there seemed to be so little to go on. In IRL blind games you have clues you pick up from being around the people. In this one, I felt like I had nothing. Might just be me, but i'd rather play a non-blind game and make it more challenging.
I like the flavor occupations. How about Blacksmith [info]Hungryandhollow? That's what my last name means.


Time:2005-10-25 23:43:25 GMT
Author:[info]maniakes
Subject:(none)
Link:32292#546084

Parent:#17
Siblings:(none)
Children:(none)
 #20
I believed you!


Time:2005-10-25 23:50:54 GMT
Author:[info]stride
Subject:(none)
Link:32292#546340

Parent:#19
Siblings:#33
Children:#22
#21
I got to be a pirate! :D


Time:2005-10-26 00:08:13 GMT
Author:[info]maniakes
Subject:(none)
Link:32292#546852

Parent:#21
Siblings:(none)
Children:(none)
 #22
Sorry, I forgot this earlier.

*footrubs*


Time:2005-10-26 08:27:07 GMT
Author:[info]giantlaser
Subject:(none)
Link:32292#548644

Parent:(none)
Siblings:#1 #2 #3 #14 #17 #18 #19 #38
Children:#24 #27
#23
This game was very tough, and it was a tough introduction. That's fine; I'll really enjoy the next one, and be well prepared.

I like that the wolves had a higher chance of victory. We lost not because of lack of specials, but because of poor use of the specials we did have. We lynched the seer first, which was a major blow and really just bad luck. But our bodyguard made poor choices, and the priest came out too late.

Finally, [info]infohazard was allowed to lead too many of the arguments, especially with his tool. Garbage in, garbage out. Except this time we were the machine, and [info]infohazard was feeding us garbage.


Time:2005-10-26 16:21:29 GMT
Author:[info]ragnarok_now
Subject:(none)
Link:32292#548900

Parent:#23
Siblings:#27
Children:#25
#24
The only time any of [info]infohazards logical conclusions have been right were in the final endgame, and then only when he was a villager. I'm surprised that people still believe them even with such a low sucess rate.

I'll repeat it again, for those that are new:
This is a game of lying.
Logic is of limited use, and is often flawed if not corrupted by the wolves.


Time:2005-10-26 18:09:14 GMT
Author:[info]maniakes
Subject:(none)
Link:32292#549412

Parent:#24
Siblings:(none)
Children:#26
#25
The tool is useful if you put the right assumptions into it ([info]parzanese apparently has gotten the hang of this). But it is incredibly easy to manipulate, or just to get garbage unintentionally; numbers say with a straight face things that mere words would never presume.

I'm suggesting that in the future, people limit use of the tool to writing their own formulas to do calculations to confirm the plausibility of their deductions. And anyone who posts input to or output from the tool should be immediately lynched.


Time:2005-10-26 22:03:54 GMT
Author:[info]gorillashaman
Subject:(none)
Link:32292#549668

Parent:#25
Siblings:(none)
Children:#29 #32
#26
I'm amazed by people who "hate the tool".

The tool is not the evil thing here. It is simply a catalyst for performing calculations that could be done with pencil and paper.

Should you trust me if I say "I've calculated that there's an 80% chance you're a wolf" ? Of course not. I wouldn't expect you to.

Should you trust me if I say "I've calculated that there's an 80% chance you're a wolf, and here's all my work?" Maybe, but I still don't expect you to, at least not until you've had the chance to review all my work.

In other words, it's not enough for me to proclaim a result, and make the method for deriving the result available. You've got to spend the time to review my methods.

If you trust me without reviewing my methods, and wind up in a bad spot, it is not the fault of my methods, it is your fault for not spending the time to review them.


Time:2005-10-26 22:04:52 GMT
Author:[info]gorillashaman
Subject:(none)
Link:32292#549924

Parent:#23
Siblings:#24
Children:#31
#27
It is amazingly common for villages to lynch the SEER on the first day. No clue why. That's why rule #1 of the "claim game" is not to lynch the SEER. I'm actually surprised [info]gnatdbug didn't stand up and say "I am the SEER". Would have made for a better game.

[info]infohazard was feeding us garbage

As much as I understand you feeling misled by me, I did present EVERYTHING I feed into that tool, and made the tool available to everyone. I even posted source code.

I don't think the strength of my arguments was the use of the tool so much as other peoples' unwillingness to use the tool for themselves, or suggest better claims to feed into it.

At one point, [info]hungryandhollow made a vote based solely on the output given by the tool.

[info]Parzanese was, I think, the only player to really use it intelligently, but by then he was already dead.

If the past reveals the future, I predict I'll be lynched early on in the next game.


Time:2005-10-26 22:15:45 GMT
Author:[info]the1mouse
Subject:(none)
Link:32292#550180

Parent:#18
Siblings:(none)
Children:#34
#28
You will pay for your actions this weekend! :p


Time:2005-10-26 23:00:29 GMT
Author:[info]maniakes
Subject:(none)
Link:32292#550436

Parent:#26
Siblings:#32
Children:#30
#29
The problem is that there is not a strong enough general understanding of what good assumptions are. It's far too easy for a wolf to come up with plausible ruleset that strongly implicates a villager.

If you make up your own rulesets to help make up your own mind, then explain your reasoning without explicitly referring to the tool, that is a good use of the tool.

We have empirically demonstrated that peer review of explicit ruleset results is not sufficient to expose deliberate manipulation by wolves. That is why I am arguing that the tool should not be invoked explicitly.


Time:2005-10-26 23:31:53 GMT
Author:[info]ragnarok_now
Subject:(none)
Link:32292#550692

Parent:#29
Siblings:(none)
Children:(none)
 #30
Personally I don't 'hate' the 'tool'. I believe the problem isn't so much the fact that false assumptions are used, but the fact that people don't understand that any output, regardless or it's derivation, is only as good or honest as the person behind it.

With the likelyhood of the person either being a mistaken villager or a misleading wolf the chance that the tool is giveing good infomation is minimal. But if some says "there is a 76% chance so-and-so is a wolf" suddenly people seem to think it's proof.

You would presume that it would be taken with a grain of salt, but it seems as though people believe in the veracity of the program, when ironically it can neither lie nor tell the truth.


Time:2005-10-26 23:49:45 GMT
Author:[info]parzanese
Subject:(none)
Link:32292#550948

Parent:#27
Siblings:(none)
Children:#36
#31
hey I wasn't dead with my first couple of uses on Day 3 and it pointed at [info]maniakes and [info]daedalus4096 with what I put in . . . no one listened though :) . . .


Time:2005-10-26 23:50:12 GMT
Author:[info]parzanese
Subject:(none)
Link:32292#551204

Parent:#26
Siblings:#29
Children:#35
#32
I love the tool and plan on continuing to use it . . . but don't be surprised if I don't put your assumptions in it :)


Time:2005-10-26 23:52:27 GMT
Author:[info]parzanese
Subject:(none)
Link:32292#551460

Parent:#19
Siblings:#21
Children:(none)
 #33
oh there were clues . . . you just had to look for them . . . but I will admit [info]infohazard gave away very few while I was alive . . . I can't give an unbiased conclusion on if he gave away any clues after I was out of the game . . .


Time:2005-10-26 23:56:55 GMT
Author:[info]parzanese
Subject:(none)
Link:32292#551716

Parent:#28
Siblings:(none)
Children:#37
#34
better watch it or I'll kick you out of the limo and leave you in Paso :)


Time:2005-10-27 00:11:45 GMT
Author:[info]gorillashaman
Subject:(none)
Link:32292#551972

Parent:#32
Siblings:(none)
Children:(none)
 #35
I don't expect you to. :)

Have you played with the fuzzy logic stuff yet? =)


Time:2005-10-27 00:12:31 GMT
Author:[info]gorillashaman
Subject:(none)
Link:32292#552228

Parent:#31
Siblings:(none)
Children:(none)
 #36
I think you and I both will not be trusted much in future games.


Time:2005-10-27 16:49:52 GMT
Author:[info]the1mouse
Subject:(none)
Link:32292#552484

Parent:#34
Siblings:(none)
Children:(none)
 #37
Just wait and see how badly I haunt you THEN!

Hehe. :p


Time:2005-11-11 21:03:45 GMT
Author:[info]blackbeardin
Subject:(none)
Link:32292#552740

Parent:(none)
Siblings:#1 #2 #3 #14 #17 #18 #19 #23
Children:(none)
 #38
So, ah, what about that next Wolf game...?

cross-posted(sorta) to [info]Millershollow


Posting Statistics
posts by[info]maniakes:(7)#9 #11 #16 #20 #22 #25 #29
posts by[info]gorillashaman:(6)#4 #5 #26 #27 #35 #36
posts by[info]parzanese:(5)#18 #31 #32 #33 #34
posts by[info]lupusintabula:(5)#7 #8 #10 #12 #15
posts by[info]lorriet:(4)#1 #6 #13 #14
posts by[info]ragnarok_now:(2)#24 #30
posts by[info]the1mouse:(2)#28 #37
posts by[info]chessiekitty:(2)#2 #3
posts by[info]stride:(1)#21
posts by[info]daedalus4096:(1)#17
posts by[info]blackbeardin:(1)#38
posts by[info]giantlaser:(1)#23
posts by[info]hungryandhollow:(1)#19
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