lupusintabula - Day 6

Link:30769 Sat Jan 23 00:16:45 2010

"Godless heathens!" Shouts Sir [info]Evilben. "I shan't stand idly by whilst you doom the Village!" He draws his sword, prepared to cut down the Werewolves in his midst, only to be hit on the back of the head with a rock. The Vintner [info]Giantlaser scowls down at his unconscious form, dropping the blooded rock to the ground.

[info]Evilben only awakens to scream his last into the dusky, uncaring sky.

*********************************************

The wan morning sun brings more bad news. The Vintner has been eaten in the night by Werewolves. In addition, a blood spattered vial is found outside his house. The Spinner [info]Chessiekitty picks up the vial and sniffs it, her nose wrinkling. "Poison" she says. "It looks like the good Vintner was wanted by both sides."

Summary: [info]evilben and [info]giantlaser are DEAD.
Time:2005-10-24 20:53:09 GMT
Author:[info]creepyduck
Subject:(none)
Link:30769#517425

Parent:(none)
Siblings:#2 #3 #8 #10 #11 #12 #14 #20 #54 #55 #57 #58
Children:(none)
 #1
Quack?


Time:2005-10-24 21:25:11 GMT
Author:[info]gorillashaman
Subject:(none)
Link:30769#518193

Parent:(none)
Siblings:#1 #3 #8 #10 #11 #12 #14 #20 #54 #55 #57 #58
Children:#4 #6
#2
I'm a little confused. Can I infer that the witch is still around and that they poisoned [info]giantlaser, in addition to him being targeted by the werewolves?

If that's true, then the witch must still be alive, and have spent both potions. Which means [info]parzanese isn't the witch. So now I'm just confused. Did he ever have any powers at all?

I also infer the hunter is still alive, because we've had no double deaths.

Anyone have any other information to add?


Time:2005-10-24 21:44:12 GMT
Author:[info]gorillashaman
Subject:(none)
Link:30769#518961

Parent:(none)
Siblings:#1 #2 #8 #10 #11 #12 #14 #20 #54 #55 #57 #58
Children:#5
#3
Ok here's the assumptions I'm working from...

# werewolves don't attack werewolves in the night
[info]parzanese=NORMAL
[info]amphitrite27=NORMAL
[info]stride=NORMAL
[info]giantlaser=NORMAL
# [info]gnatdbug / [info]pianorain conundrum
[info]gnatdbug=WOLF+[info]pianorain=WOLF>=1
# werewolves don't vote for werewolves on day 1
[info]gnatdbug=WOLF+[info]infohazard=WOLF<=1
[info]gnatdbug=WOLF+[info]lorriet=WOLF<=1
[info]gnatdbug=WOLF+[info]maniakes=WOLF<=1
[info]gnatdbug=WOLF+[info]stride=WOLF<=1
[info]gnatdbug=WOLF+[info]the1mouse=WOLF<=1
[info]the1mouse=WOLF+[info]parzanese=WOLF<=1
[info]lorriet=WOLF+[info]gpeefalt=WOLF<=1
[info]infohazard=WOLF+[info]daedalus4096=WOLF<=1
[info]flipperchaz=WOLF+[info]chessiekitty=WOLF<=1
[info]daedalus4096=WOLF+[info]evilben=WOLF<=1
# werewolves don't vote for werewolves on day 2 EXCEPT DOGPILES
[info]stride=WOLF+[info]pianorain=WOLF<=1
[info]pianorain=WOLF+[info]stride=WOLF<=1
[info]parzanese=WOLF+[info]amphitrite27=WOLF<=1
[info]infohazard=WOLF+[info]giantlaser=WOLF<=1
[info]amphitrite27=WOLF+[info]maniakes=WOLF<=1
# werewolves don't vote for werewolves on day 3 EXCEPT DOGPILES
[info]parzanese=WOLF+[info]giantlaser=WOLF<=1
[info]parzanese=WOLF+[info]gpeefalt=WOLF<=1
[info]stride=WOLF+[info]pianorain=WOLF<=1
[info]infohazard=WOLF+[info]chessiekitty=WOLF<=1
[info]giantlaser=WOLF+[info]lorriet=WOLF<=1
[info]evilben=WOLF+[info]maniakes=WOLF<=1
# ditto day four
[info]evilben=WOLF+[info]daedalus4096=WOLF<=1
[info]evilben=WOLF+[info]maniakes=WOLF<=1
[info]daedalus4096=WOLF+[info]chessiekitty=WOLF<=1
# ditto day five
[info]evilben=WOLF+[info]maniakes=WOLF<=1
[info]giantlaser=WOLF+[info]hungryandhollow=WOLF<=1
[info]daedalus4096=WOLF+[info]chessiekitty=WOLF<=1
# pessimistic survival assumption
([info]chessiekitty=WOLF+[info]daedalus4096=WOLF+[info]hungryandhollow=WOLF+[info]infohazard=WOLF+[info]lorriet=WOLF+[info]maniakes=WOLF)=2

The last is speculative. Since we're still alive, we know there's at least one dead WOLF. I'm assuming that there aren't two dead wolves. In other words, today is our last day, and the two wolves are amoung the living.

Here's the results I get:

[info]chessiekitty 29%
[info]daedalus4096 29%
[info]hungryandhollow 50%
[info]infohazard 21%
[info]lorriet 36%
[info]maniakes 36%

If you trust [info]hungryandhollow, (i.e. add [info]hungryandhollow=NORMAL):

[info]chessiekitty 29%
[info]daedalus4096 29%
[info]infohazard 29%
[info]lorriet 57%
[info]maniakes 57%

Interestingly, there are no combinations there where NEITHER [info]lorriet nor [info]maniakes are WOLF if you trust [info]hungryandhollow (AND all the other assumptions given up there).

If you don't trust [info]hungryandhollow (i.e. instead add [info]hungryandhollow=WOLF):

[info]chessiekitty 29%
[info]daedalus4096 29%
[info]hungryandhollow 100%
[info]infohazard 14%
[info]lorriet 14%
[info]maniakes 14%

There are no exclusive combinations in this set up.

I'm not sure I can draw any good conclusions from this.


Time:2005-10-24 22:02:45 GMT
Author:[info]creepyduck
Subject:(none)
Link:30769#519217

Parent:#2
Siblings:#6
Children:(none)
 #4
Quack! Quack Quack Quack Quack! Quack Quack Quack? Quack Quack Quack QUACK!


Time:2005-10-24 22:05:48 GMT
Author:[info]lorriet
Subject:(none)
Link:30769#519473

Parent:#3
Siblings:(none)
Children:(none)
 #5
I am most definitely not wolf, if that helps your calculations. Darn potions wasted. :P


Time:2005-10-24 22:06:24 GMT
Author:[info]daedalus4096
Subject:(none)
Link:30769#519729

Parent:#2
Siblings:#4
Children:#7
#6
Yeah, that is weird. I figured that [info]Parzanese had to be the witch. Oh well.


Time:2005-10-24 22:14:49 GMT
Author:[info]creepyduck
Subject:(none)
Link:30769#519985

Parent:#6
Siblings:(none)
Children:(none)
 #7
Quack! Quack Quack Quack Quack?


Time:2005-10-24 22:18:36 GMT
Author:[info]daedalus4096
Subject:(none)
Link:30769#520241

Parent:(none)
Siblings:#1 #2 #3 #10 #11 #12 #14 #20 #54 #55 #57 #58
Children:#9 #21
#8
Well, seeing as how the stakes have gotten much higher today, I can't see a way around it anymore. I'm the PRIEST, and unless [info]Flipperchaz was a wolf, I can tell you that today is our last shot. The spirits I've performed last rites for are:

[info]Gnatdbug: SEER
[info]The1mouse: VILLAGER
[info]Pianorain: WEREWOLF
[info]Gpeefalt: BODYGUARD
[info]Evilben: VILLAGER (poor bastard has the worst luck...)

I believe it's also safe to say that [info]Stride was the NOTARY, given her dead-on description of the last wills. Until today, I also thought that [info]Parzanese was the WITCH, but apparently that guess was wrong.

Since we're down to six people, if we don't get a wolf today, the village is finished. What say you all?


Time:2005-10-24 22:23:08 GMT
Author:[info]lorriet
Subject:(none)
Link:30769#520753

Parent:#8
Siblings:#21
Children:(none)
 #9
In case I wasn't clear in my previous entry, I am the WITCH. No way to prove that, really, but there it is.


Time:2005-10-24 22:39:35 GMT
Author:[info]chessiekitty
Subject:(none)
Link:30769#521009

Parent:(none)
Siblings:#1 #2 #3 #8 #11 #12 #14 #20 #54 #55 #57 #58
Children:#13
#10
Image hosted by Photobucket.com

Image hosted by Photobucket.com


Time:2005-10-24 22:42:45 GMT
Author:[info]chessiekitty
Subject:(none)
Link:30769#521265

Parent:(none)
Siblings:#1 #2 #3 #8 #10 #12 #14 #20 #54 #55 #57 #58
Children:(none)
 #11
Sorry about that- I just had the urge to take pictures of some of my devil [info]ducks (the pirate is my favorite).

Anyway- Just in case Daedalus is telling the truth- and I'm not so sure about that. I guess I'll come out of my little NRA closet. I'm the HUNTER. I have absolutely no way of proving that, of course.

I was going to keep my choice from last time, but I'll change it to vote [info]infohazard. For now anyway.


Time:2005-10-24 22:49:27 GMT
Author:[info]chessiekitty
Subject:(none)
Link:30769#521521

Parent:(none)
Siblings:#1 #2 #3 #8 #10 #11 #14 #20 #54 #55 #57 #58
Children:#17
#12
If we believe the three of us that came out- then that leaves [info]infohazard, [info]hungryandhollow, and [info]maniakes. According to daedalus, two of them are wolves. I'm changing my vote. Not necessarily because I don't think [info]infohazard can be a wolf, but because [info]hungryandhollow seems not quite like himself this game. Reminds me of when I was a wolf and double guessed all my posts and comments. So, unvote [info]infohazard and vote [info]hungryandhollow.


Time:2005-10-24 22:57:13 GMT
Author:[info]creepyduck
Subject:(none)
Link:30769#522033

Parent:#10
Siblings:(none)
Children:(none)
 #13
QUACK! QUACK Quack Quack!


Time:2005-10-24 22:59:53 GMT
Author:[info]creepyduck
Subject:(none)
Link:30769#522289

Parent:(none)
Siblings:#1 #2 #3 #8 #10 #11 #12 #20 #54 #55 #57 #58
Children:#15
#14
Quack! Quack! Quack!

The [info]duck pulls out a large cannister and places it on the ground before him, then it pulls out a large card which says:

"I've come for Evil Ben. We need to make more Evil Ben Snacks back at Millers Hollow. Please deposit his remains here."

Quack!


Time:2005-10-24 23:01:14 GMT
Author:[info]chessiekitty
Subject:(none)
Link:30769#522545

Parent:#14
Siblings:(none)
Children:#16
#15
Another reason to go vegetarian again...


Time:2005-10-24 23:05:49 GMT
Author:[info]creepyduck
Subject:(none)
Link:30769#522801

Parent:#15
Siblings:(none)
Children:(none)
 #16
The [info]duck pulls out a green tinged bag with Evil Ben's smiling face on it, it says Evil Ben Snacks - New Soylent Green Flavor!


Time:2005-10-24 23:29:51 GMT
Author:[info]gorillashaman
Subject:(none)
Link:30769#523057

Parent:#12
Siblings:(none)
Children:#18
#17
I concur. vote [info]hungryandhollow, at least for now:

[info]lorriet's claim is believeable; the witch save/poison this game is consistant with a new player (no offense, [info]lorriet, I just don't think any of the experienced players would have gone for the save on night one).

[info]daedalus4096's claim is a little shakier; a lot of folks seemed to be undecided about the "[info]pianorain is a WOLF" theory. If you run the tool with [info]lorriet=NORMAL&[info]daedalus4096=WOLF, you get [info]hungryandhollow as 67% chance of wolfiness (and incidentally, me 0%, which I like). If you run the tool with [info]lorriet=NORMAL&[info]daedalus4096=NORMAL, plus all the attendant claims, you get [info]hungryandhollow and [info]maniakes tied at 60%, and me and [info]chessiekitty tied at 40%.

Since [info]hungryandhollow comes out high in either case, I'm voting for him.


Time:2005-10-24 23:54:48 GMT
Author:[info]lorriet
Subject:(none)
Link:30769#523313

Parent:#17
Siblings:(none)
Children:#19
#18
God I hate being a newb. :P But he said he was the seer! And, and, what if he had been, then I'd have saved someone important. :P

But yeah. No offense taken. :)


Time:2005-10-25 00:39:50 GMT
Author:[info]gorillashaman
Subject:(none)
Link:30769#523825

Parent:#18
Siblings:(none)
Children:(none)
 #19
I interpreted him as being a bit flippant (in character for Joe). An experienced player wouldn't come out as the SEER on day one, especially not someone as experienced as Joe. What surprises me more is that the wolves actually tried to eat him that night, knowing that both the witch AND the bodyguard were in play.


Time:2005-10-25 02:32:52 GMT
Author:[info]daedalus4096
Subject:(none)
Link:30769#524081

Parent:(none)
Siblings:#1 #2 #3 #8 #10 #11 #12 #14 #54 #55 #57 #58
Children:#22
#20
Just to make sure people have seen it, the PRIEST, the WITCH, and the HUNTER have all come out today. Since it's game over unless we get a wolf today, if anyone would like to dispute any of these claims, please do so ASAP. Waiting at this point only hurts the village.


Time:2005-10-25 02:35:12 GMT
Author:[info]maniakes
Subject:(none)
Link:30769#524337

Parent:#8
Siblings:#9
Children:#23 #28
#21
I apologize for the delay; I had no access during class today.

I am the BODYGUARD

Nice try, wolf. Next time pick a role that's harder to falsify.

vote [info]daedalus4096

Will the real PRIEST please stand up?


Time:2005-10-25 02:35:55 GMT
Author:[info]maniakes
Subject:(none)
Link:30769#524593

Parent:#20
Siblings:(none)
Children:#24 #25
#22
As I posted above, I am disputing your claim.


Time:2005-10-25 02:38:51 GMT
Author:[info]daedalus4096
Subject:(none)
Link:30769#524849

Parent:#21
Siblings:#28
Children:(none)
 #23
Thank you. This makes my voting choice very easy.

Vote [info]Maniakes.


Time:2005-10-25 02:41:07 GMT
Author:[info]daedalus4096
Subject:(none)
Link:30769#525105

Parent:#22
Siblings:#25
Children:#26
#24
And in doing so, you've reduced everyone else's voting choices from five to two. In all honesty, I'm rather surprised you of all people didn't see that.


Time:2005-10-25 02:47:21 GMT
Author:[info]maniakes
Subject:(none)
Link:30769#525361

Parent:#22
Siblings:#24
Children:#27 #31
#25
For the record, here were my actions:

Night 1 - Protect [info]daedalus4096
I didn't think the wolves would risk the bodyguard protecting [info]parzanese, and I thought [info]daedalus4096 was close enough to being a confirmed villager to be a target.

Night 2 - Protect [info]parzanese
Confirmed villager, since the witch had saved him.

Night 3 - Protect [info]stride
She's good at the game, so she'd likely be high on the eat list.

Night 4 - Protect [info]infohazard
[info]Stride, confirmed villager, was ineligable. [info]infohazard is another good player who would likely be high on the eat list.

Night 5 - Protect [info]chessiekitty
I was starting to get suspicious of [info]daedalus4096, since [info]chessiekitty's argument that day seemed to have merit, and it occured to me that [info]daedalus4096 got next to no momentum when he was in the lead on day one, but there was enourmous momentum towards [info]gnatdbug after I argued to clear [info]daedalus4096, and there was enourmous momentum on almost every lynch vote following that day. Reminded me of [info]parzanese's comment on a watcher's thread in a previous game about how wolves are always hard to lynch, and easy to lynch people are hardly ever wolves.

I figured there was a significant chance of [info]chessiekitty being on the right track, and of the wol(f/ves) eating her to shut her up.


Time:2005-10-25 02:49:13 GMT
Author:[info]maniakes
Subject:(none)
Link:30769#525617

Parent:#24
Siblings:(none)
Children:#29
#26
Thank you for making a very good argument against yourself. Me doing this only makes sense if I am being honest


Time:2005-10-25 02:53:23 GMT
Author:[info]daedalus4096
Subject:(none)
Link:30769#525873

Parent:#25
Siblings:#31
Children:#33
#27
Which could easily be completely made up since there were no Bodyguard saves this game. Of course, there's also little way to verify my claim, which brings it down to which of us they believe.


Time:2005-10-25 02:53:56 GMT
Author:[info]gorillashaman
Subject:(none)
Link:30769#526129

Parent:#21
Siblings:#23
Children:#32
#28
Assuming you are correct, the real priest could be dead. Tell me, BODYGUARD, why didn't you protect [info]parzanese on night 1?

unvote [info]hungryandhollow, and vote [info]maniakes


Time:2005-10-25 02:54:16 GMT
Author:[info]daedalus4096
Subject:(none)
Link:30769#526385

Parent:#26
Siblings:(none)
Children:#30
#29
No, it only makes sense if you think they'll believe you over me. The actual truth has little bearing on which of us will get lynched tonight.


Time:2005-10-25 03:00:36 GMT
Author:[info]maniakes
Subject:(none)
Link:30769#526641

Parent:#29
Siblings:(none)
Children:(none)
 #30
Yeah, but as a wolf I'd have better chances betting the villager (with two wolf votes mixed in) guesses wrong once before they guess right twice. As a villager, my chances are much better pointing the finger at you (who I now know virtually for certain to be a wolf) and hoping I'm believed.


Time:2005-10-25 03:00:53 GMT
Author:[info]daedalus4096
Subject:(none)
Link:30769#526897

Parent:#25
Siblings:#27
Children:#36 #40
#31
Actually, you put us in an even better situation than I thought. There are now three logical outcomes that I can see.

1) Your wolf compatriot claims to be the Priest, and I get lynched. Game over.
2) Your wolf compatriot claims to be the Priest, and you get lynched. The lack of a game over proves you were a wolf, and leaves us with a very good target for the last wolf.
3) Your wolf compatriot doesn't stick up for you. This trashes your claim and you get lynched. The lack of a game over proves you were a wolf and we can continue hunting for your pack-mate.

Forgive me if I've missed an option or two; the flu has left me a little scatter-brained.


Time:2005-10-25 03:03:11 GMT
Author:[info]maniakes
Subject:(none)
Link:30769#527153

Parent:#28
Siblings:(none)
Children:#34
#32
See below. I thought he was being flippant about being the seer, and I thought the wolves would be smart enough not to risk burning a kill on a target likely protected by a naive bodyguard, in order to get a probably fake seer.


Time:2005-10-25 03:06:43 GMT
Author:[info]maniakes
Subject:(none)
Link:30769#527665

Parent:#27
Siblings:(none)
Children:#35
#33
The way to verify a priest claim is to see if he's claimed the deaths of any specials who are in fact alive.


Time:2005-10-25 03:10:24 GMT
Author:[info]gorillashaman
Subject:(none)
Link:30769#527921

Parent:#32
Siblings:(none)
Children:#37
#34
So who'd you protect instead?


Time:2005-10-25 03:13:52 GMT
Author:[info]daedalus4096
Subject:(none)
Link:30769#528177

Parent:#33
Siblings:(none)
Children:#38
#35
Which only the Priest and that person can know for sure. Really, what you've done here is about the safest bet you can make, short of not taking the bait at all. After all, it's not like the real Bodyguard can dispute your claim.

At this point, regardless of which of us gets lynched today, I can go to my grave knowing that I've given the village its best possible odds of surviving the night. I mean, if I don't get lynched today, your buddy'll eat me tonight, so it's not like I have much left to lose.


Time:2005-10-25 03:13:54 GMT
Author:[info]maniakes
Subject:(none)
Link:30769#528433

Parent:#31
Siblings:#40
Children:#39 #45
#36
Lack of game-over tonight proves nothing, assuming [info]chessiekitty is really the hunter:
http://www.livejournal.com/users/[info]millershollow/47501.html?thread=667789#t667789


Time:2005-10-25 03:15:35 GMT
Author:[info]maniakes
Subject:(none)
Link:30769#528689

Parent:#34
Siblings:(none)
Children:#47
#37
I wasted it on a lying wolf.

http://www.livejournal.com/users/[info]lupusintabula/30769.html?thread=525361#t525361


Time:2005-10-25 03:16:49 GMT
Author:[info]maniakes
Subject:(none)
Link:30769#528945

Parent:#35
Siblings:(none)
Children:#42 #44
#38
Likewise, you picked two really safe targets for specials to claim. Bodyguard being safe because I've been useless, and Seer being safe because two people claimed Seerhood in their wills.


Time:2005-10-25 03:21:30 GMT
Author:[info]daedalus4096
Subject:(none)
Link:30769#529201

Parent:#36
Siblings:#45
Children:(none)
 #39
Hunh... Okay then, consider my last post retracted.


Time:2005-10-25 03:21:30 GMT
Author:[info]gorillashaman
Subject:(none)
Link:30769#529457

Parent:#31
Siblings:#36
Children:#41
#40
You've missed the scenario where there are two dead wolves and one dead priest already. You could be the remaining wolf. If that were true, and we lynch [info]maniakes, we'll still be around tomorrow. Your priest story could have been concocted precisely for this reason. You could have used the perceived inaction of various specials to claim them as dead, and yourself priest, thereby gaining people's trust when the game doesn't end tomorrow.

Crap this is confusing.


Time:2005-10-25 03:22:41 GMT
Author:[info]daedalus4096
Subject:(none)
Link:30769#529713

Parent:#40
Siblings:(none)
Children:#46
#41
See [info]Maniakes' post above. I'd forgotten the Hunter had those effects.


Time:2005-10-25 03:24:33 GMT
Author:[info]daedalus4096
Subject:(none)
Link:30769#530225

Parent:#38
Siblings:#44
Children:#43
#42
Hey, I can't help who you killed.


Time:2005-10-25 03:25:25 GMT
Author:[info]daedalus4096
Subject:(none)
Link:30769#530481

Parent:#42
Siblings:(none)
Children:(none)
 #43
Gah, my bad. Stupid plague... Previous post retracted.


Time:2005-10-25 03:28:19 GMT
Author:[info]daedalus4096
Subject:(none)
Link:30769#530737

Parent:#38
Siblings:#42
Children:#48
#44
Please disregard my previous reply here. Stupid plague messing with my head...


Time:2005-10-25 03:31:35 GMT
Author:[info]gorillashaman
Subject:(none)
Link:30769#530993

Parent:#36
Siblings:#39
Children:(none)
 #45
Hrm. Weird.

Imagine 2 wolves, 1 hunter, and 1 villager. Assuming the hunter has come out, both wolves should vote for the villager. The hunter and villager will see this, and vote for a wolf, resulting in a tie at best. This tie won't be broken, and that night the wolves get two eats.

Is that right? Would we live through that pointless day?


Time:2005-10-25 03:32:28 GMT
Author:[info]gorillashaman
Subject:(none)
Link:30769#531249

Parent:#41
Siblings:(none)
Children:(none)
 #46
Even more confusing.


Time:2005-10-25 03:39:06 GMT
Author:[info]daedalus4096
Subject:(none)
Link:30769#531505

Parent:#37
Siblings:(none)
Children:#50
#47
I'm somewhat confused as to how I was close to being a "confirmed villager" on day one.


Time:2005-10-25 03:39:28 GMT
Author:[info]gorillashaman
Subject:(none)
Link:30769#531761

Parent:#44
Siblings:(none)
Children:#49
#48
I unvote [info]maniakes and vote [info]abstain.

I'm just confused now.


Time:2005-10-25 03:41:46 GMT
Author:[info]daedalus4096
Subject:(none)
Link:30769#532017

Parent:#48
Siblings:(none)
Children:(none)
 #49
Well, personally I think you should stick with your previous choice, but I am somewhat biased. :)


Time:2005-10-25 04:10:11 GMT
Author:[info]maniakes
Subject:(none)
Link:30769#532273

Parent:#47
Siblings:(none)
Children:#51
#50
http://www.livejournal.com/users/[info]lupusintabula/19991.html?thread=368663#t368663

Which will go in the [info]maniakes clever deduction hall of shame alongside this:
http://www.livejournal.com/users/[info]millershollow/5792.html


Time:2005-10-25 04:13:00 GMT
Author:[info]maniakes
Subject:(none)
Link:30769#532529

Parent:#50
Siblings:(none)
Children:#52
#51
This is a better link for the [info]maniakes clever deduction hall of shame:
http://www.livejournal.com/users/[info]millershollow/2242.html?thread=66242#t66242


Time:2005-10-25 04:22:50 GMT
Author:[info]daedalus4096
Subject:(none)
Link:30769#532785

Parent:#51
Siblings:(none)
Children:#53
#52
I'm still not following your logic on this, but I suppose it doesn't matter all that much.


Time:2005-10-25 04:27:22 GMT
Author:[info]maniakes
Subject:(none)
Link:30769#533041

Parent:#52
Siblings:(none)
Children:(none)
 #53
Doesn't really matter, since we both know I was wrong.


Time:2005-10-25 04:28:54 GMT
Author:[info]daedalus4096
Subject:(none)
Link:30769#533297

Parent:(none)
Siblings:#1 #2 #3 #8 #10 #11 #12 #14 #20 #55 #57 #58
Children:(none)
 #54
Well, I'm going to bed now, and I don't know if I'll be up before the final vote tally. I've done all I can to give you all the best odds possible. All I can do now is hope you make the right choice. At least you won't have to wait long to find out if you made the wrong one. :)


Time:2005-10-25 04:48:35 GMT
Author:[info]chessiekitty
Subject:(none)
Link:30769#533553

Parent:(none)
Siblings:#1 #2 #3 #8 #10 #11 #12 #14 #20 #54 #57 #58
Children:#56
#55
Aw f**k! Now I'm totally confused. And probably the wolves' next target.

My theory was that by saying what I did yesterday, if I was correct and Daedalus was a wolf, then I would not be eaten. If I was incorrect, then I would. But then he came out as the priest. But he could very easily be lying. I do believe [info]lorriet though. With me and her being villagers, that leaves a 50/50 chance for her and me to choose a wolf.
Bear with me while I try to sort this out:

If there are still two wolves left and we lynch a villager and I get eaten, and I kill a villager, then it's 1 villager to 2 wolves.

If we lynch a villager and I get eaten and I kill a wolf it will be 2 villagers and one wolf.

Same above but I don't get eaten, then we tie, but we still get one more lynching vote.

To save my sanity (some of us do not like computing dozens upon dozens of possibilities), I'm stopping there at the least favorable outcome for the next lynching (2 wolves and lynching a villager).

I've lost my train of thought. I really was going somewhere with this.

unvote [info]hungryandhollow and vote [info]daedalus4096

But it is odd for H&H to not have posted yet.


Time:2005-10-25 13:49:23 GMT
Author:[info]gorillashaman
Subject:(none)
Link:30769#535089

Parent:#55
Siblings:(none)
Children:(none)
 #56
Alrighty, I've been up running simulations for the last hour. I'm still convinced [info]hungryandhollow is a wolf (see previous posts). I'm also convinced [info]maniakes is NOT a wolf. A sucky BODYGUARD, but not a wolf. It's a shame the real PRIEST is dead, because having a competing set of claims would have made this a lot easier to figure out.

unvote [info]abstain and vote [info]daedalus4096

I'll likely be in meetings at work all this morning.


Time:2005-10-25 14:26:33 GMT
Author:[info]lorriet
Subject:(none)
Link:30769#535601

Parent:(none)
Siblings:#1 #2 #3 #8 #10 #11 #12 #14 #20 #54 #55 #58
Children:(none)
 #57
Blah. This is so confusing.

vote [info]daedalus4096



Time:2005-10-25 18:05:01 GMT
Author:[info]lupusintabula
Subject:(none)
Link:30769#537649

Parent:(none)
Siblings:#1 #2 #3 #8 #10 #11 #12 #14 #20 #54 #55 #57
Children:(none)
 #58
Post closed.


Vote History
[info]chessiekittyvote[info]infohazard2005-10-24 22:42:45 GMT#11
[info]chessiekittyunvote[info]infohazard2005-10-24 22:49:27 GMT#12
[info]chessiekittyvote[info]hungryandhollow2005-10-24 22:49:27 GMT#12
[info]gorillashamanvote[info]hungryandhollow2005-10-24 23:29:51 GMT#17
[info]maniakesvote[info]daedalus40962005-10-25 02:35:12 GMT#21
[info]daedalus4096vote[info]maniakes2005-10-25 02:38:51 GMT#23
[info]gorillashamanunvote[info]hungryandhollow2005-10-25 02:53:56 GMT#28
[info]gorillashamanvote[info]maniakes2005-10-25 02:53:56 GMT#28
[info]gorillashamanunvote[info]maniakes2005-10-25 03:39:28 GMT#48
[info]gorillashamanvote[info]abstain2005-10-25 03:39:28 GMT#48
[info]chessiekittyunvote[info]hungryandhollow2005-10-25 04:48:35 GMT#55
[info]chessiekittyvote[info]daedalus40962005-10-25 04:48:35 GMT#55
[info]gorillashamanunvote[info]abstain2005-10-25 13:49:23 GMT#56
[info]gorillashamanvote[info]daedalus40962005-10-25 13:49:23 GMT#56
[info]lorrietvote[info]daedalus40962005-10-25 14:26:33 GMT#57
Vote Summary
4 against[info]daedalus4096:[info]lorriet [info]maniakes [info]gorillashaman [info]chessiekitty
1 against[info]maniakes:[info]daedalus4096
Posted but no vote:[info]creepyduck [info]lupusintabula
Posting Statistics
posts by[info]daedalus4096:(18)#6 #8 #20 #23 #24 #27 #29 #31 #35 #39 #41 #42 #43 #44 #47 #49 #52 #54
posts by[info]maniakes:(13)#21 #22 #25 #26 #30 #32 #33 #36 #37 #38 #50 #51 #53
posts by[info]gorillashaman:(11)#2 #3 #17 #19 #28 #34 #40 #45 #46 #48 #56
posts by[info]creepyduck:(6)#1 #4 #7 #13 #14 #16
posts by[info]chessiekitty:(5)#10 #11 #12 #15 #55
posts by[info]lorriet:(4)#5 #9 #18 #57
posts by[info]lupusintabula:(1)#58
Comment Tree Summary