areyouacultist - Day 2 |
| Link:8063 Sat Jan 23 00:21:25 2010 |
| Time:2009-10-15 19:52:09 GMT Author: Subject:(none) Link:8063#54911 | Parent:(none) Siblings:#2 #6 #11 #15 #18 #20 #27 #30 #42 #47 #48 #74 #77 #87 #88 #92 #93 #99 Children:#3 #16 |
#1 | |
| Ok... So the bodyguard protected the right person, and the vigilante killed the PI. Way to go vigilante. ugh. Since there was only one cultist, and I don't think the cultist can try to sacrifice themselves, the bodyguard knows for sure who one of the villagers is. Dumb luck? Or did both the bodyguard and the cultist pick a "good player" to protect/attack? Anyone care to come forward? If we get two claims of bodyguardness, we just lynch them both and we win. Otherwise, it'd be good to have two confirmed villagers. | |||
| Time:2009-10-15 20:02:06 GMT Author: Subject:(none) Link:8063#55167 | Parent:(none) Siblings:#1 #6 #11 #15 #18 #20 #27 #30 #42 #47 #48 #74 #77 #87 #88 #92 #93 #99 Children:#4 #5 #14 #21 |
#2 | |
| Cheleann77 is suspicious to me for her last minute lobbying for In the end though, I must VOTE because they didn't post at all yesterday. | |||
| Time:2009-10-15 20:09:03 GMT Author: Subject:(none) Link:8063#55423 | Parent:#1 Siblings:#16 Children:#7 |
#3 | |
| What do you mean "only one cultist"? Clearly the night's activity report shows a second cultist (and the original roles list post). | |||
| Time:2009-10-15 20:09:48 GMT Author: Subject:(none) Link:8063#55679 | Parent:#2 Siblings:#5 #14 #21 Children:#10 |
#4 | |
| What happened to your theory of letting inactive people suicide themselves? If | |||
| Time:2009-10-15 20:10:06 GMT Author: Subject:(none) Link:8063#55935 | Parent:#2 Siblings:#4 #14 #21 Children:#9 |
#5 | |
| I got laid off yesterday. I was too busy celebrating. :) It is also very difficult to point fingers on day one where there is little to no info to go off of. However, now with day one worth of data: It is very suspicious for last minute lobbying. | |||
| Time:2009-10-15 20:10:41 GMT Author: Subject:(none) Link:8063#56191 | Parent:(none) Siblings:#1 #2 #11 #15 #18 #20 #27 #30 #42 #47 #48 #74 #77 #87 #88 #92 #93 #99 Children:(none) |
#6 | |
| Well... crap. Here I was all ready to think we were awesome, nabbing a cultist the first night and all... and then the PI gets whacked by the Vigilante. Jiminy. Guess it's all deductive reasoning now. The last-minute vote-switching bothers me a bit, but on the other hand it nabbed us a cultist, so I'm not honestly too suspicious of it. With only two cultists, sacrificing one to provide the other some cover is a pretty risky plan. Otherwise, who do we know who | |||
| Time:2009-10-15 20:20:34 GMT Author: Subject:(none) Link:8063#56703 | Parent:#3 Siblings:(none) Children:#8 |
#7 | |
| 2 cultists to start with, one of whom is lynched on day 1. Hence, only one cultist last night. | |||
| Time:2009-10-15 20:22:19 GMT Author: Subject:(none) Link:8063#56959 | Parent:#7 Siblings:(none) Children:#13 |
#8 | |
| Sorry, I understand now. I just seemed to recall seeing "one cultist" posts in yesterday's thread and not questioning it. | |||
| Time:2009-10-15 20:23:17 GMT Author: Subject:(none) Link:8063#57215 | Parent:#5 Siblings:(none) Children:#12 |
#9 | |
| Rum luck, | |||
| Time:2009-10-15 20:23:29 GMT Author: Subject:(none) Link:8063#57471 | Parent:#4 Siblings:(none) Children:#19 #22 |
#10 | |
| I don't think you read any of my posts on the topic yesterday. Allowing GM suicides increases the rate at which we lose villagers. | |||
| Time:2009-10-15 20:30:24 GMT Author: Subject:(none) Link:8063#57727 | Parent:(none) Siblings:#1 #2 #6 #15 #18 #20 #27 #30 #42 #47 #48 #74 #77 #87 #88 #92 #93 #99 Children:#54 |
#11 | |
| Actually, now that I think about it, I think ALL the specials should come out now. We've got 14 villagers remaining. The specials remaining are: For the home team: 1 Doctor 1 Thrill-Killer 1 Vigilante 1 Bodyguard For the bad guys: 1 Sorcerer 1 Cultist IF all the good guy specials come out, we've got at least four and possibly five (if we know who the bodyguard saved and it weren't another special) confirmed villagers. 5/14 is one hell of a voting block. The vigilante will also know who not to kill at night. The doctor knows who to save. The bodyguard has some idea who to protect. If we get double claimants for any role, we just lynch them both. I think we could actually wrap this up in short order. | |||
| Time:2009-10-15 20:30:57 GMT Author: Subject:(none) Link:8063#57983 | Parent:#9 Siblings:(none) Children:#35 |
#12 | |
| I am actually rather grateful to get unemployment for awhile: it'll give my soul a chance to grow back after years of corporate servitude. Plus I can get those chores finally done! I do hope that you find something that's perfect for you soon. :) | |||
| Time:2009-10-15 20:52:04 GMT Author: Subject:(none) Link:8063#58751 | Parent:#8 Siblings:(none) Children:(none) |
#13 | |
| I said "14 villagers, 1 cultist" in terms of the lynching - since the second cultist DEFINITELY isn't going to try to stop the mob, there might as well be 14-1 right then. | |||
| Time:2009-10-15 21:00:39 GMT Author: Subject:(none) Link:8063#59263 | Parent:#2 Siblings:#4 #5 #21 Children:#17 |
#14 | |
| My last-minute vote-shift was the deciding factor to swap *to* the Cultist. For this to make sense, we have to consider: First possibility: I am a cultist, and I deliberately swapped the lynching from Snoopy *to* a Cultist. This does not make sense unless both Snoopy *and* I are Cultists and we're trying to deflect attention. And that's impossible, because if I'm a cultist and Chaos-dancer was a cultist, then Snoopy *wasn't* a cultist, and swapping from a lynched villager to a lynched cultist is an incredibly bone-headed move for the only other cultist. Especially on turn 1. Second possibility: I am not a cultist, and I was telling the truth when I said I was picking pretty much at random. I, of course, maintain that possibility 2 is the case: I swapped capriciously and we hit the lucky 1/8 chance of snagging a cultist. They didn't have a further chance to skew things because, up until *5 minutes before voting closed* they were coming out ahead. Possibility 1 requires either that I be a complete moron or playing an incredibly risky "deep game" that involves giving up a free villager kill in exchange for losing 50% of my assets - on *turn 1*. | |||
| Time:2009-10-15 21:02:55 GMT Author: Subject:(none) Link:8063#59519 | Parent:(none) Siblings:#1 #2 #6 #11 #18 #20 #27 #30 #42 #47 #48 #74 #77 #87 #88 #92 #93 #99 Children:(none) |
#15 | |
| "AHA! GOT YOU, YOU FOUL CULTIST!" the shadow cried, the bat connecting with the side of the shadow's head with a crunch, dropping her to the ground bonelessly. "Never again will you threaten our fair hamlet! Never again will you...uh...er..." it was then that a stray lightning bolt flashed across the sky, illuminating the camera that had fallen and broken against the ground. "Crap." [Golfclap] | |||
| Time:2009-10-15 21:04:08 GMT Author: Subject:(none) Link:8063#59775 | Parent:#1 Siblings:#3 Children:(none) |
#16 | |
| The cultists *can* try to sacrifice themselves, but it would be really stupid in this case. | |||
| Time:2009-10-15 21:05:20 GMT Author: Subject:(none) Link:8063#60031 | Parent:#14 Siblings:(none) Children:(none) |
#17 | |
| Modnote: C_D was a him. | |||
| Time:2009-10-15 21:05:55 GMT Author: Subject:Poll Link:8063#60287 | Parent:(none) Siblings:#1 #2 #6 #11 #15 #20 #27 #30 #42 #47 #48 #74 #77 #87 #88 #92 #93 #99 Children:(none) |
#18 | |
| I have put up a poll in a separate post. Please take a look and vote. | |||
| Time:2009-10-15 21:11:18 GMT Author: Subject:(none) Link:8063#60543 | Parent:#10 Siblings:#22 Children:(none) |
#19 | |
| Yes, but wasting a lynching on an inactive villager gives the cultists a free kill. | |||
| Time:2009-10-15 21:19:32 GMT Author: Subject:(none) Link:8063#60799 | Parent:(none) Siblings:#1 #2 #6 #11 #15 #18 #27 #30 #42 #47 #48 #74 #77 #87 #88 #92 #93 #99 Children:(none) |
#20 | |
| So: My immediate suspicion falls on the people who agreed with I *know* I was picking at random, a cultist voting first on the very first round would be very ballsy, and that leaves I think I will VOTE | |||
| Time:2009-10-15 21:31:25 GMT Author: Subject:(none) Link:8063#61055 | Parent:#2 Siblings:#4 #5 #14 Children:#23 #24 |
#21 | |
| I'm suspicious? I'm the bodyguard, believe me or not. I suspected Seemed cultist to me, and all my comments said that... I picked the person I protected because he had the second highest number of votes, and therefore I thought he would be subject to cultist retaliation and I was right twice yesterday. It's possible I'm just good at reading people. or lynch me, is cool. I will continue to be a good villager and special until then. | |||
| Time:2009-10-15 21:33:34 GMT Author: Subject:(none) Link:8063#61311 | Parent:#10 Siblings:#19 Children:#31 |
#22 | |
| In fact: If the inactive person is a villager, they're going to die regardless because they haven't posted. Lynching them gives up the villager's kill for the round and lets the cultist get a free kill tonight. All you're doing by lynching them is *guaranteeing* that we miss a cultist today. If the inactive person is a cultist and they're inactive, then last night's cultist attack was a randomly determined one - so if they go without posting today, they suicide and the villagers win. (If the inactive person was a cultist who only posted on cultist threads and not during the day, then they *still* either join in today or die at nightfall.) So I don't follow how fewer villagers die if we go after people who aren't playing. | |||
| Time:2009-10-15 21:47:45 GMT Author: Subject:(none) Link:8063#61567 | Parent:#21 Siblings:#24 Children:#25 |
#23 | |
Anyone want to contest the bodyguard claim? Any other specials want to come out? In the interest of fairness, and getting some other specials to out themselves, I should come out. I'm plain vanilla villager, no magic powers, no special abilities other than my natural wit and charm. Please do not bodyguard or save me, unless you think my natural wit and charm are endearing somehow. | |||
| Time:2009-10-15 21:50:06 GMT Author: Subject:(none) Link:8063#61823 | Parent:#21 Siblings:#23 Children:#26 |
#24 | |
| Aww, you saved me during the night? That's very kind of you. Thank you. | |||
| Time:2009-10-15 21:51:28 GMT Author: Subject:(none) Link:8063#62079 | Parent:#23 Siblings:(none) Children:#28 |
#25 | |
| I can confirm that I protected Snoopy. He *always* gets kicked off first when we play in real life, and with my expectation of retaliation from the cultists, and no knowledge of anyone else, he seemed like a good choice. | |||
| Time:2009-10-15 21:51:43 GMT Author: Subject:(none) Link:8063#62335 | Parent:#24 Siblings:(none) Children:(none) |
#26 | |
| You're welcome. Told you I was safe. | |||
| Time:2009-10-15 21:54:38 GMT Author: Subject:(none) Link:8063#62591 | Parent:(none) Siblings:#1 #2 #6 #11 #15 #18 #20 #30 #42 #47 #48 #74 #77 #87 #88 #92 #93 #99 Children:#29 |
#27 | |
| OK, I would like the game to continue, but I don't have time to sit here and talk a lot today, so VOTE She hasn't bothered to play yet, and I don't see the point to having the GM kill her and another one of us. Please have a spirited debate while I'm wandering off, I want to be able to figure out who to protect tonight. | |||
| Time:2009-10-15 21:59:57 GMT Author: Subject:(none) Link:8063#62847 | Parent:#25 Siblings:(none) Children:#39 |
#28 | |
| The personal angle shouldn't be missed here either. Three possibilities. 1) remaining cultist chose victim at random 2) remaining cultist is a friend/enemy of 3) remaining cultist picked I don't know | |||
| Time:2009-10-15 22:24:48 GMT Author: Subject:(none) Link:8063#63871 | Parent:#27 Siblings:(none) Children:(none) |
#29 | |
| I'm not sure killing off an inactive player is a good use of our lynch for the day since it blows one of our chances at getting the remaining cultist. I vote | |||
| Time:2009-10-15 22:25:44 GMT Author: Subject:(none) Link:8063#64127 | Parent:(none) Siblings:#1 #2 #6 #11 #15 #18 #20 #27 #42 #47 #48 #74 #77 #87 #88 #92 #93 #99 Children:#32 #78 |
#30 | |
| The real disadvantage in voting the silent one out is that the bodyguard dies tonight. The cultist can take out the bodyguard now. Doctor, identify yourself and you and the bodyguard can protect each other at least one more night. Snoopy is essentially proven not a cultist by not dying last night. theweselking, I didn't join the game until the specials had been handed out. This is due to an LJ failure and being on the wrong coast due to business. Also, I was hoping for more debate by tying up the voting. I knew I'd be on a plane for it, but, as we saw, last-minute vote switching tells us things. On the game-extension matter: I dislike it because I'd like to see just one game end quickly, with a minimum of villager deaths. We'll play again! Let's save this town first! Who's voting for giving the sorcerer more power? That sounds like a cultist thing to do to me. VOTE | |||
| Time:2009-10-15 22:26:25 GMT Author: Subject:(none) Link:8063#64383 | Parent:#22 Siblings:(none) Children:#33 #41 |
#31 | |
| It's more about the probablities. You are right, assuming we pick the sorcerer or cultist to kill on the second try. However, if we pick a special or a villager and the GM kills So whatever round that happens in, we stand to lose three. It's more about if we believe that we can pick the right person to lynch. Your reasoning makes sense if we believe that in round two we get as lucky as we did in round one. But realistically, the chances are good we will kill a villager, the GM will off I'm playing my cynic and voting for | |||
| Time:2009-10-15 22:31:00 GMT Author: Subject:(none) Link:8063#64639 | Parent:#30 Siblings:#78 Children:#36 #59 #70 #86 |
#32 | |
| I vote the doctor doesn't come out, and I'll take the sacrifice if I have to. The doctor exposing themselves now has no benefit. I'm currently suspicious of both people who advocate any further special knowledge. I came out, well, cause I'm dumb and cause I see that the village only loses if I get killed. So I took the calculated risk that knowing I am the bodyguard will help you all not lynch me on accident. But now I'm a giant target, I see no reason for the doctor to be so as well. The Doctor could protect me tonight AND not put themselves in danger by staying silent. Why would you want them to do otherwise? | |||
| Time:2009-10-15 22:39:46 GMT Author: Subject:(none) Link:8063#64895 | Parent:#31 Siblings:#41 Children:#34 |
#33 | |
| It's more that, by voting for the inactive person, either they're a cultist (and would have died anyway for inactivity), or *we give up our 1/12 chance to hit the cultist* in the hopes that tomorrow brings new information and a better guess. Basically, by targeting the inactive person, we *guarantee* missing the cultist. To hit someone who *is already dead*. I think of it this way. Assume IF WE DON'T LYNCH HER: our collective target dies, who *might* be the cultist. She dies. You die if the Doctor doesn't protect you. IF WE LYNCH HER: She dies, the cultist's target (likely you) dies. And then in the next round, we're left with picking a non- Essentially, if Lynching the inactive person really doesn't strike me as productive. Sure, we're *definitely* not losing an active special - but we're not *gaining* anything either. | |||
| Time:2009-10-15 22:58:30 GMT Author: Subject:(none) Link:8063#65151 | Parent:#33 Siblings:(none) Children:#37 |
#34 | |
| It never fails. No matter how logical you think you are, someone will disagree with you. Tonight, it is highly likely a cultist would want to kill a known villager so that we're more confused tomorrow. We of course want to protect against this. Cultist has two choices. IF they choose the (currently uncontested) bodyguard, the doctor could save. IF they choose snoopy, the could could also save. This is probably the best use of doctor save potions we'll get all game, with the possible exception of the cultist randomly targeting the doctor and the doctor saving themselves. Now, listen carefully. IF Now, if we DON'T lynch her, and instead lynch some other random villager (highly likely) we'll be down one more villager than we would be otherwise. Would you rather lose one villager? Or two? This is why we should lynch her now. | |||
| Time:2009-10-15 22:59:28 GMT Author: Subject:(none) Link:8063#65407 | Parent:#12 Siblings:(none) Children:(none) |
#35 | |
| Grazie. I'm sure I'll figure out something. And I do hear you on the chance for a bit of soul-growth and cleanup time. Heck, I've been to the gym almost every day since being laid off. :P | |||
| Time:2009-10-15 23:03:38 GMT Author: Subject:(none) Link:8063#65663 | Parent:#32 Siblings:#59 #70 #86 Children:(none) |
#36 | |
| Honestly, I'm kinda on the side of people staying quiet. The doctor coming out right now is a bad idea, else they have a max of two nights to live... and nervous doctors start poisoning people. As for everyone coming out at once, the problem is, what then? Yes, we have a confirmed safe group... but do we just start going down the list of non-specials one after another, lynching one a day? At that point, it's still a matter of luck, we just have somewhat better odds... and if everyone comes out, then the cultists (and now possibly the sorceror) know better who to knock off first. Just seems like a bad idea... Gorilla, can you epxlain your reasoning a little better here? | |||
| Time:2009-10-15 23:09:22 GMT Author: Subject:(none) Link:8063#65919 | Parent:#34 Siblings:(none) Children:#38 #40 |
#37 | |
| If we lynch TONIGHT: Lose TOMORROW: Lynch a probable villager and lose a villager to the cultist. If we don't lynch TONIGHT: Lose a probable villager to the lynching, lose Tomorrow: Lynch a probable (although more likely than last round, a cultist!) villager, then lose a villager to the cultist. We're not worried about number of votes - at this point, the cultist has to kill his way down through *13* people *and* survive the 50/50 when there's just two left and each votes for the other in order to win. The question, to me, seems not to be about keeping maximum villagers alive (which is not a victory condition) and more about maximising cultist kill factor - and, giving up a *shot* at the cultist on round 2 doesn't seem productive. What am I missing that makes losing two to the cultist in exchange for one of our choice worth giving up 3-2, when one of the 3 *isn't playing at all*? | |||
| Time:2009-10-15 23:24:14 GMT Author: Subject:(none) Link:8063#66175 | Parent:#37 Siblings:#40 Children:#43 #45 |
#38 | |
| Minimizing villager losses extends the length of the game, and gives us more time to find the cultist. The choice you're advocating maximizes villager losses and shortens the game, giving us less time to find the cultist. | |||
| Time:2009-10-15 23:28:06 GMT Author: Subject:(none) Link:8063#66431 | Parent:#28 Siblings:(none) Children:#50 |
#39 | |
| I wasn't sure if I should respond to this or not, but since the information's pretty much available by checking my friend's list... I consider Based on | |||
| Time:2009-10-15 23:30:05 GMT Author: Subject:(none) Link:8063#66687 | Parent:#37 Siblings:#38 Children:#46 |
#40 | |
| According to the game rules, if there are equal number of players to cultists, then the cultists wins. In the event that the cultist manages to hack and kill their way down to a 1v1 situation, they still win because, technically speaking, it would then go to a tie, they both vote for each other during the sudden death phase, the tie persists through the sudden death phase, then no one gets lynched at the end of the day, then the cultist comes and murders the person in their sleep. Well, I guess the cultists wouldn't win if the last person is the Thrill-Killer because as soon as they sacrifice the T-K, the T-K takes them out. | |||
| Time:2009-10-15 23:36:18 GMT Author: Subject:(none) Link:8063#66943 | Parent:#31 Siblings:#33 Children:(none) |
#41 | |
| FYI, if you're voting vote username unvote username | |||
| Time:2009-10-15 23:42:46 GMT Author: Subject:(none) Link:8063#67199 | Parent:(none) Siblings:#1 #2 #6 #11 #15 #18 #20 #27 #30 #47 #48 #74 #77 #87 #88 #92 #93 #99 Children:#44 |
#42 | |
| Well, we currently don't have any information other than that | |||
| Time:2009-10-15 23:46:53 GMT Author: Subject:(none) Link:8063#67455 | Parent:#38 Siblings:#45 Children:(none) |
#43 | |
| I'm kinda with Longevity, while important, isn't as crucial as finding and killing the remaining cultist. | |||
| Time:2009-10-15 23:55:59 GMT Author: Subject:(none) Link:8063#67711 | Parent:#42 Siblings:(none) Children:(none) |
#44 | |
| To be fair, I think I put the 15th down in the userinfo, although I meant to start on Wednesday. All she needs to do to avoid commiting suicide is posting once, although the lynching... | |||
| Time:2009-10-15 23:59:30 GMT Author: Subject:(none) Link:8063#67967 | Parent:#38 Siblings:#43 Children:(none) |
#45 | |
| Assume We have 13 non- Given *random* non- 1/13 chance of lynching the cultist, then the cultist gets one, and That's a 92% chance of missing on this round, and a 90% chance of missing next round, giving us an 83% chance of missing the target before the next nightfall, with *9* villagers and one cultist left when the cultist gets a shot tomorrow night. Put another way, we have a 17% chance, choosing *purely randomly*, of getting the remaining cultist. If we lynch This doesn't really improve our situation. Extrapolating a turn into the future doesn't change that: by voting for the idle person, we give the Cultist more choices of people to kill. Now, assume (All this, of course, disregards the Thrill-Killer, the Doctor, and the Vigilante.) | |||
| Time:2009-10-16 00:02:09 GMT Author: Subject:(none) Link:8063#68223 | Parent:#40 Siblings:(none) Children:(none) |
#46 | |
| That would be awesome. Ghost Town Massachusetts. | |||
| Time:2009-10-16 00:03:15 GMT Author: Subject:(none) Link:8063#68479 | Parent:(none) Siblings:#1 #2 #6 #11 #15 #18 #20 #27 #30 #42 #48 #74 #77 #87 #88 #92 #93 #99 Children:(none) |
#47 | |
| I'm just a fisherman, and all this debate is a little confusing ;) All this debate over method is kind of futile and doesn't help us get to the real problem. And that is we still can't go fishing because there is a cultist amoung us! Who seems the most suspicious? | |||
| Time:2009-10-16 01:27:52 GMT Author: Subject:(none) Link:8063#68735 | Parent:(none) Siblings:#1 #2 #6 #11 #15 #18 #20 #27 #30 #42 #47 #74 #77 #87 #88 #92 #93 #99 Children:#49 #52 |
#48 | |
| vote | |||
| Time:2009-10-16 01:34:32 GMT Author: Subject:(none) Link:8063#68991 | Parent:#48 Siblings:#52 Children:(none) |
#49 | |
| You're ALIVE! Well, crap. This ruins all my math from before. | |||
| Time:2009-10-16 01:54:22 GMT Author: Subject:(none) Link:8063#69247 | Parent:#39 Siblings:(none) Children:#51 |
#50 | |
| I only voted for you because you started it. :P | |||
| Time:2009-10-16 02:01:55 GMT Author: Subject:(none) Link:8063#69503 | Parent:#50 Siblings:(none) Children:(none) |
#51 | |
| I kinda figured as much. The assumption being that our Day 1 votes would cancel each other out instead of | |||
| Time:2009-10-16 02:11:11 GMT Author: Subject:(none) Link:8063#69759 | Parent:#48 Siblings:#49 Children:#53 |
#52 | |
| Ah, you are alive. unvote and VOTE | |||
| Time:2009-10-16 02:24:03 GMT Author: Subject:(none) Link:8063#70015 | Parent:#52 Siblings:(none) Children:#56 |
#53 | |
| As I said before: My voteshifting only makes sense if 1) I'm a cultist AND a moron or 2) I'm innocent and got lucky. And, I *know* I got lucky, and I *know* your math is bad on why to vote for the idle person (I can provide links and further explanations), and I've looked up your past games on I am now *certain* that you're either Sorceror or Cultist. UNVOTE | |||
| Time:2009-10-16 03:16:30 GMT Author: Subject:(none) Link:8063#70527 | Parent:#11 Siblings:(none) Children:#55 #60 |
#54 | |
| I'm not sure how this is going to be helpful. If the Doctor saved the bodyguard and the vigilante goes along and doesn't kill any of the specials if they out themselves, we get one night free in clear and have had a 1 in 8 chance of getting the cultist, if the vigilante and lynch didn't get them. Then, the next night the bodyguard is killed, then the doctor, then probably the vigilante, then the thrill-killer who we hope will take the cultist with him. Is this the gist of what you are saying? | |||
| Time:2009-10-16 04:25:07 GMT Author: Subject:(none) Link:8063#71039 | Parent:#54 Siblings:#60 Children:#58 |
#55 | |
| assume everybody outs, and also assume we're not doing any goofy game extensions also assume people play logically (a stretch, I know) today, 14 alive, 5 known good, 1 cultist lynch someone at random, 1/9 chance we get the cultist cultist gets no kill (doctor saves any targeted special) vigilante kills someone, 1/8 chance we get the cultist next day, 12 alive, 5 known good, 1 cultist lynch someone at random, 1/7 chance we get the cultist bodyguard announces protection of vigilante cultist kills bodyguard or doctor doctor poisons, 1/6 chance we get the cultist (can he poison if he's targeted? assume yes) vigilante kills, 1/5 chance we get the cultist (may require doctor/vigilante coordination) next day, 8 alive, 4 known good, 1 cultist lynch someone at random, 1/4 chance we get the cultist cultist kills vigilante (does vigilante still get a kill? assume yes) vigilante kills, 1/3 chance we get the cultist next day, 5 alive, 3 known good, 1 cultist lynch someone at random, 1/2 chance we get the cultist cultist kills a special next day, 3 alive, 2 known good, VILLAGER WIN. odds of losing here == 0% NB, there are two unknowns. Can the doctor poison if he is attacked by cultist? Does vigilante get a kill if he is attacked by cultists? I assume yes to both. Note also, if the cultist veers off the path and kills someone who is NOT a special, then he only hastens his own death and villager win. That flow is contingent on How's it work with today, 14 alive, 4 known good, 1 cultist lynch someone at random, 1/10 chance we get the cultist cultist gets no kill (doctor saves any targeted special) vigilante kills someone, 1/9 chance we get the cultist next day, 12 alive, 4 known good, 1 cultist lynch someone at random, 1/8 chance we get the cultist bodyguard announces protection of vigilante cultist kills bodyguard or doctor doctor poisons, 1/7 chance we get the cultist (can he poison if he's targeted? assume yes) vigilante kills, 1/6 chance we get the cultist (may require doctor/vigilante coordination) next day, 8 alive, 3 known good, 1 cultist lynch someone at random, 1/5 chance we get the cultist cultist kills vigilante (does vigilante still get a kill? assume yes) vigilante kills, 1/4 chance we get the cultist next day, 5 alive, 2 known good, 1 cultist lynch someone at random, 1/3 chance we get the cultist cultist kills a special NB: odds of getting this far are 9/10 * 8/9 * 7/8 * 6/7 * 5/6 * 4/5 * 3/4 * 2/3 == 20% next day, 3 alive, 1 known good, 1 cultist lynch someone at random, 1/2 chance we get the cultist OVERALL odds of us losing here... 10% NB this is a LOSING scenario if we have a good-cultist-sorceror combination. However, the odds of not getting either the cultist or the sorceror by this point are going to be very small (~ 2%). Note also in no case did I assume the thrill-killer gets attacked by the cultist. If he does, the thrill killer takes out an unknown. This has the same effect as the cultist targeting an unknown. In the This is, I think, about as good as it's going to get. What happens if people don't listen to me? Assume some special hides because they're afraid, confused, or dumb. Any one of the cultist, thrill killer, vigilante, or doctor could kill another special, and our sure-thing win vanishes. | |||
| Time:2009-10-16 05:01:53 GMT Author: Subject:(none) Link:8063#71295 | Parent:#53 Siblings:(none) Children:#57 |
#56 | |
| see http://cuddlepuddle.org/~adam/ljgames/ Your "I'd only do that if I were a cultist and a moron" logic is a "wine in front of me" argument. You could be a clever cultist trying to make me think only a moron would do what you did. Whatever, it doesn't matter. It's just like any other claim to innocence, full of sound and fury, signifying nothing. Now if you're some sort of special and came out, I'd be likely to move my vote. Otherwise, it's all the same to me. | |||
| Time:2009-10-16 10:30:13 GMT Author: Subject:(none) Link:8063#72063 | Parent:#56 Siblings:(none) Children:#64 |
#57 | |
| If I'm a cultist, then I swapped the town's lynching from a non-cultist to a cultist, on turn 1. This is pretty significantly different from a normal claim of innocence. | |||
| Time:2009-10-16 12:59:02 GMT Author: Subject:(none) Link:8063#72319 | Parent:#55 Siblings:(none) Children:#63 |
#58 | |
| This is actually fairly compelling. But by this logic train, we should be lynching people who claim to be normal non-special villagers in order to make the cycle work - so I see no reason to not have my cake and eat it too, and vote you off the island today. If you're a villager, we can accept your logic as entirely sound and proceed as you suggest, starting tomorrow. If you're not a villager, we come out ahead. | |||
| Time:2009-10-16 13:02:07 GMT Author: Subject:(none) Link:8063#72575 | Parent:#32 Siblings:#36 #70 #86 Children:(none) |
#59 | |
| The main benefit of the specials coming out is that the Vigilante and Thrill-killer know to not target them. | |||
| Time:2009-10-16 13:39:13 GMT Author: Subject:(none) Link:8063#72831 | Parent:#54 Siblings:#55 Children:#61 #62 #69 |
#60 | |
| In fact, the more I think about it, the more I think Very well, then! I am the Vigilante. (If the Doctor could chime in and keep me from getting whacked tonight, I'd appreciate that. | |||
| Time:2009-10-16 13:41:55 GMT Author: Subject:(none) Link:8063#73087 | Parent:#60 Siblings:#62 #69 Children:#67 |
#61 | |
| Oh, and also: UNVOTE If your plan is right, and it seems to be, it's not sensible for the Sorceror or the Cultist to make it. Which is not to say I *trust* you, but more that I'm willing to see you continue. | |||
| Time:2009-10-16 13:43:26 GMT Author: Subject:(none) Link:8063#73343 | Parent:#60 Siblings:#61 #69 Children:#66 |
#62 | |
| (Heck: the doctor doesn't even have to CHIME IN, unless they're | |||
| Time:2009-10-16 14:14:15 GMT Author: Subject:(none) Link:8063#73599 | Parent:#58 Siblings:(none) Children:#79 |
#63 | |
| Absolutely. Like I said, I'm not special and not worth saving. However, please note, the logic also requires all the specials to come out. | |||
| Time:2009-10-16 14:18:49 GMT Author: Subject:(none) Link:8063#73855 | Parent:#57 Siblings:(none) Children:#65 #76 |
#64 | |
| Methinks thou dost protest too much. Here's how I imagine the cultist thought. "Hrm, the vote is going against the other cultist anyway. I can make it look like I'm not a cultist by jumping on that pile and making sure he gets lynched. No one will ever suspect me. Bwah-ha-ha." Plausible? Yes. Likely? Who knows. I certainly have seen other players do similar stunts, up to and including having a wolf (cultist) eat (kill) one of their own in the hopes the witch (doctor) would save them, thereby cementing their deniability. Last minute voting is always suspicious, regardless of who you switch from/to. | |||
| Time:2009-10-16 14:21:51 GMT Author: Subject:(none) Link:8063#74111 | Parent:#64 Siblings:#76 Children:(none) |
#65 | |
| Except I didn't dogpile onto someone who was already losing. I *caused* the cultist to lose instead of Snoopy. If I'm a cultist, Snoopy thus *isn't* a cultist, and I saved a villager to kill a cultist. If Snoopy is a cultist, I'm by definition not one. And, like I said earlier, I'm the vigilante. I like you plan, I think your plan can work, so I'm willing to give it a shot. If no more specials come forward in the next few hours, I'll make my vote and take my chances on hitting one of them. | |||
| Time:2009-10-16 14:23:17 GMT Author: Subject:(none) Link:8063#74367 | Parent:#62 Siblings:(none) Children:#68 |
#66 | |
| The doctor needs to come out, so the thrill killer doesn't get them. Since the thrill killer is not yet out, it is still possible for us to lynch him, or the cultist to kill him tonight. In either event, it is possible for the thrill killer to take out the doctor, thus losing our advantage. The thrill killer needs to come out, so the doctor knows to try to save them if they get targeted tonight. Again, losing the thrill killer loses our advantage. BOTH need to come out, so the villagers know not to lynch them. | |||
| Time:2009-10-16 14:29:30 GMT Author: Subject:(none) Link:8063#74623 | Parent:#61 Siblings:(none) Children:(none) |
#67 | |
| Ah, can't vote for an uncontested special. Therefore I UNVOTE and move next down my suspicion list and VOTE | |||
| Time:2009-10-16 14:33:42 GMT Author: Subject:(none) Link:8063#74879 | Parent:#66 Siblings:(none) Children:#71 |
#68 | |
| For the plan to be perfect, yes. But it's *possible* to succeed if they don't come out yet - better than 50/50, in fact, as long as they speak up *if we target them today*. | |||
| Time:2009-10-16 14:36:50 GMT Author: Subject:(none) Link:8063#75135 | Parent:#60 Siblings:#61 #62 Children:(none) |
#69 | |
| Correct. The BODYGUARD must NOT protect The DOCTOR must save tonight if an outed special is targeted. In the event the thrill killer does NOT come out, it's probably wise for the DOCTOR to save tonight anyway. If we don't lynch a special today, and the doctor saves tonight, we preserve our special count and can follow the flow outlined previously. | |||
| Time:2009-10-16 14:39:53 GMT Author: Subject:(none) Link:8063#75391 | Parent:#32 Siblings:#36 #59 #86 Children:#72 |
#70 | |
| UNVOTE VOTE I find both I flipped coin. | |||
| Time:2009-10-16 14:43:11 GMT Author: Subject:(none) Link:8063#75647 | Parent:#68 Siblings:(none) Children:#73 |
#71 | |
| You are correct. It is still POSSIBLE, and better than 50/50 even, if the specials don't all come out. That said, I think it is important to not that NOT coming out DECREASES our chances in the event of a mishap (we lynch the doctor or thrill killer today), possibly even drastically. Sorry, I get a little logic crazed sometimes; the scenario if I've never seen it any better on day 2. | |||
| Time:2009-10-16 14:43:36 GMT Author: Subject:(none) Link:8063#75903 | Parent:#70 Siblings:(none) Children:(none) |
#72 | |
| VOTE My vote can make it a coin toss between GS and Mak, with 2 each. So I think I'll do that. | |||
| Time:2009-10-16 14:50:47 GMT Author: Subject:(none) Link:8063#76415 | Parent:#71 Siblings:(none) Children:#75 |
#73 | |
| I agree. I can't see a problem with your plan - and so, if it turns out you're actually the cultist or sorceror, I demand a debrief to show me where the trick was. (Also: You mentioned you can't bring yourself to vote for an uncontested special. Even if someone contest being Vigilante, you shouldn't lynch either of us - because one of us is the Vigilante, and the other is *definitely lying about being Vigilante*, and thus a bad guy. So, let us both live until nightfall, and the liar gets killed by the Vigilante. QED.) | |||
| Time:2009-10-16 15:03:07 GMT Author: Subject:(none) Link:8063#76671 | Parent:(none) Siblings:#1 #2 #6 #11 #15 #18 #20 #27 #30 #42 #47 #48 #77 #87 #88 #92 #93 #99 Children:(none) |
#74 | |
| vote Someone who doesn't seem concerned about votes against them is more likely to be a crazed cultist. | |||
| Time:2009-10-16 15:34:49 GMT Author: Subject:(none) Link:8063#76927 | Parent:#73 Siblings:(none) Children:(none) |
#75 | |
| Sure. Pretty much any double claimants are screwed, some sooner than others. | |||
| Time:2009-10-16 15:59:26 GMT Author: Subject:(none) Link:8063#78975 | Parent:#64 Siblings:#65 Children:#82 |
#76 | |
| As much as I know you like poking at things to get a reaction and to the truth of the matter, | |||
| Time:2009-10-16 16:01:55 GMT Author: Subject:(none) Link:8063#79231 | Parent:(none) Siblings:#1 #2 #6 #11 #15 #18 #20 #27 #30 #42 #47 #48 #74 #87 #88 #92 #93 #99 Children:#83 |
#77 | |
| THE DEAD THE LIVING roles still unknown/unclaimed: cultist, sorcerer, doctor, thrill-killer | |||
| Time:2009-10-16 16:02:40 GMT Author: Subject:(none) Link:8063#79487 | Parent:#30 Siblings:#32 Children:#80 |
#78 | |
| Normally I would agree, except that I'm pretty certain that you were included in the original list of those who wanted to play. Vote | |||
| Time:2009-10-16 16:03:51 GMT Author: Subject:(none) Link:8063#79743 | Parent:#63 Siblings:(none) Children:#81 #84 |
#79 | |
| Hrm. I'm with this logic, actually. Having seen your scheme play out on paper, it seems like a good one. However, I'm still suspicious of you. I've seen big cojones from you before, and I'm also convinced that besides silence (which doesn't seem in your nature) the next best defense for a cultist is a bastion of logic. It would be sad irony if the cultist were to propose the plan that was surefire, and then ride it all the way to a lonely, gibbering win. I'm going to vote | |||
| Time:2009-10-16 16:10:25 GMT Author: Subject:*on a chariot of fire, pulled by angels, it's Modgod* Link:8063#79999 | Parent:#78 Siblings:(none) Children:(none) |
#80 | |
| He was counted and had a role chosen for him just as all the other people did and the same time as the other players. He just didn't know game was starting because he forgot to friend the journal. ;) | |||
| Time:2009-10-16 16:12:38 GMT Author: Subject:(none) Link:8063#80255 | Parent:#79 Siblings:#84 Children:(none) |
#81 | |
| I changed my decision because I can't find a hole in his logic - if he actually is an innocent villager, he's going to die in a few days anyway. If he's right, we can *afford* to wait and lynch him tomorrow. | |||
| Time:2009-10-16 16:13:50 GMT Author: Subject:(none) Link:8063#80511 | Parent:#76 Siblings:(none) Children:#85 |
#82 | |
| Certainly. Which is why I moved my vote. | |||
| Time:2009-10-16 16:14:31 GMT Author: Subject:(none) Link:8063#80767 | Parent:#77 Siblings:(none) Children:(none) |
#83 | |
| Nobody took me seriously yesterday when I suggested we search for robes. And I voted for SEE? Now. *points a finger at (Also, I've been sick the last 24 hours and haven't had a chance to dive into the comments on this thread, sorry guys) | |||
| Time:2009-10-16 16:24:39 GMT Author: Subject:(none) Link:8063#81279 | Parent:#79 Siblings:#81 Children:(none) |
#84 | |
| This fascinates me. It's a human behavior I didn't see until I started playing this game, so it's still kind of new to me. You agree with the logic, and it seems good, but you still distrust me and therefore vote against me. Silence and Logic are both suspicious to you. The implication is that I would be MORE trustworthy if I shouted "look, a Please, I beg you, if you don't like the logic, poke a hole in it! If there's something wrong with the logic we need to know ASAP! You should distrust me if I use *BAD* logic, not simply because I use logic. Moreover, if I do use *BAD* logic, you should be able to convince other people the logic is bad. If you can't, then all we hear is "I don't trust logic", and to me that seems... illogical. | |||
| Time:2009-10-16 16:27:23 GMT Author: Subject:(none) Link:8063#81535 | Parent:#82 Siblings:(none) Children:(none) |
#85 | |
| Sorry! Didn't see that. :) | |||
| Time:2009-10-16 16:43:59 GMT Author: Subject:(none) Link:8063#81791 | Parent:#32 Siblings:#36 #59 #70 Children:(none) |
#86 | |
| As now I'm going to be lynched, I'll explain myself before I die as a completely normal villager. If you knew who the doctor was, you'd know who to guard and the cultist would know that he couldn't take either of you out. | |||
| Time:2009-10-16 16:51:43 GMT Author: Subject:(none) Link:8063#82047 | Parent:(none) Siblings:#1 #2 #6 #11 #15 #18 #20 #27 #30 #42 #47 #48 #74 #77 #88 #92 #93 #99 Children:(none) |
#87 | |
| After reading through the wall o'text above, I've decided the following: vote | |||
| Time:2009-10-16 17:03:51 GMT Author: Subject:(none) Link:8063#82303 | Parent:(none) Siblings:#1 #2 #6 #11 #15 #18 #20 #27 #30 #42 #47 #48 #74 #77 #87 #92 #93 #99 Children:#89 #90 |
#88 | |
| Unvote riasha oh, look. I'm dead. Silly me for going out to dinner last night rather than posting more. Ok, so since I'm not a special (though claiming one is pretty tempting right now), I can only say that a cultist would have, upon discovering that the votes were going against him, professed to be a useful special, or even contested an existing special while making a good argument about hiding from the cultist. A cultist would sew confusion and discontent among the village. On my tombstone, I'll have it read "Just a Villager, like he said!" Thank you all for your time. GS: people find your logic suspicious mostly because you're just as good at it no matter which side you're on in a specific game. Poking holes in it requires sufficient understanding, which I find difficult this time because you're likely right, while voting against you only requires a rallying cry and a pitchfork. Good luck! | |||
| Time:2009-10-16 17:10:58 GMT Author: Subject:(none) Link:8063#82559 | Parent:#88 Siblings:#90 Children:(none) |
#89 | |
| Darn it! Now I have doubt because you're not snarky like you usually are when cornered. | |||
| Time:2009-10-16 17:24:23 GMT Author: Subject:(none) Link:8063#82815 | Parent:#88 Siblings:#89 Children:#91 #95 |
#90 | |
| might want to try it again with a proper spelling for | |||
| Time:2009-10-16 17:31:36 GMT Author: Subject:(none) Link:8063#83071 | Parent:#90 Siblings:#95 Children:#94 |
#91 | |
| Lynching aside: that may be a fun thing...combine the two games (Millers Hollow and Are You A Cultist?) into some sort of double-blind where the towns blame each other for their problems and have a select group of people they can "raid" from. | |||
| Time:2009-10-16 17:41:08 GMT Author: Subject:(none) Link:8063#83327 | Parent:(none) Siblings:#1 #2 #6 #11 #15 #18 #20 #27 #30 #42 #47 #48 #74 #77 #87 #88 #93 #99 Children:#98 |
#92 | |
| I am the DOCTOR. Keep me from being sacrificed and I will return the favor with delicious potion. | |||
| Time:2009-10-16 17:45:12 GMT Author: Subject:(none) Link:8063#83583 | Parent:(none) Siblings:#1 #2 #6 #11 #15 #18 #20 #27 #30 #42 #47 #48 #74 #77 #87 #88 #92 #99 Children:#96 |
#93 | |
I am the THRILL KILLER. | |||
| Time:2009-10-16 17:45:15 GMT Author: Subject:(none) Link:8063#83839 | Parent:#91 Siblings:(none) Children:#97 |
#94 | |
| I would be willing to give it a shot...but that means Joe and I couldn't play. | |||
| Time:2009-10-16 17:46:29 GMT Author: Subject:(none) Link:8063#84095 | Parent:#90 Siblings:#91 Children:(none) |
#95 | |
| I'll note that he's unvoted her but it doesn't matter considering the current amount of votes against him and you; it's a symbolic gesture at best. | |||
| Time:2009-10-16 17:51:53 GMT Author: Subject:(none) Link:8063#84351 | Parent:#93 Siblings:(none) Children:(none) |
#96 | |
| Sold for now! Round and round and round it goes, where the Vigilante stops..... Sorry, Maggie. Random choice says you go today. | |||
| Time:2009-10-16 17:55:58 GMT Author: Subject:(none) Link:8063#84607 | Parent:#94 Siblings:(none) Children:(none) |
#97 | |
| Or it would have to be a really quick game where every hour is a "day" so the bugs/rules/roles could be worked out. :) | |||
| Time:2009-10-16 18:00:25 GMT Author: Subject:The 12th doctor? Link:8063#84863 | Parent:#92 Siblings:(none) Children:(none) |
#98 | |
| Vote | |||
| Time:2009-10-16 18:08:54 GMT Author: Subject:AND THAT'S IT! Link:8063#85119 | Parent:(none) Siblings:#1 #2 #6 #11 #15 #18 #20 #27 #30 #42 #47 #48 #74 #77 #87 #88 #92 #93 Children:(none) |
#99 | |
| No more, no less, post closed. Will wait for the cuddlepuddle site to catch up before I do the write up. | |||
| vote | 2009-10-15 20:02:06 GMT | #2 | |||
| vote | 2009-10-15 21:19:32 GMT | #20 | |||
| vote | 2009-10-15 21:54:38 GMT | #27 | |||
| vote | 2009-10-15 22:24:48 GMT | #29 | |||
| vote | 2009-10-15 22:25:44 GMT | #30 | |||
| vote | 2009-10-15 23:42:46 GMT | #42 | |||
| vote | 2009-10-16 01:27:52 GMT | #48 | |||
| unvote | 2009-10-16 02:11:11 GMT | #52 | |||
| vote | 2009-10-16 02:11:11 GMT | #52 | |||
| unvote | 2009-10-16 02:24:03 GMT | #53 | |||
| vote | 2009-10-16 02:24:03 GMT | #53 | |||
| unvote | 2009-10-16 13:41:55 GMT | #61 | |||
| unvote | 2009-10-16 14:29:30 GMT | #67 | |||
| vote | 2009-10-16 14:29:30 GMT | #67 | |||
| unvote | 2009-10-16 14:39:53 GMT | #70 | |||
| vote | 2009-10-16 14:39:53 GMT | #70 | |||
| vote | 2009-10-16 14:43:36 GMT | #72 | |||
| vote | 2009-10-16 15:03:07 GMT | #74 | |||
| vote | 2009-10-16 16:02:40 GMT | #78 | |||
| vote | 2009-10-16 16:03:51 GMT | #79 | |||
| vote | 2009-10-16 16:51:43 GMT | #87 | |||
| unvote | 2009-10-16 17:03:51 GMT | #88 | riasha | ||
| vote | 2009-10-16 18:00:25 GMT | #98 |
| 6 against | : | ||
| 3 against | : | ||
| 1 against | : | ||
| 1 against | : | ||
| 1 against | : | ||
| Posted but no vote | : | ||
| posts by | : | (25) | #13 #14 #15 #16 #19 #20 #22 #33 #37 #45 #46 #49 #53 #57 #58 #59 #60 #61 #62 #65 #68 #72 #73 #81 #96 | |
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| posts by | : | (9) | #5 #12 #50 #76 #78 #85 #89 #91 #97 | |
| posts by | : | (9) | #3 #4 #8 #24 #39 #41 #43 #51 #87 | |
| posts by | : | (8) | #17 #18 #40 #44 #80 #94 #95 #99 | |
| posts by | : | (7) | #21 #25 #26 #27 #31 #32 #70 | |
| posts by | : | (5) | #6 #9 #35 #36 #79 | |
| posts by | : | (3) | #30 #86 #88 | |
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| posts by | : | (2) | #29 #92 | |
| posts by | : | (2) | #47 #74 | |
| posts by | : | (1) | #48 | |
| posts by | : | (1) | #83 | |
| posts by | : | (1) | #42 |